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Shielded From the Worst

Territorial Snapshot: Assumptions

Signal49 Research’s forecasts hinge on our expectations for how the COVID-19 pandemic affects economic activity.

While the situation remains fluid and depends on the spread of the virus itself, we envision a scenario where the economy passes through several phases on its path to recovery.

Phase 1 (mid-March–April 2020)

  • All non-essential business is closed, and borders remain closed to international travellers.
  • Most industries experience a negative shock to demand, with some such as accommodations and food, travel, cultural industries, and many segments of retail experiencing a near-total collapse in activity.
  • Manufacturing is mostly shuttered outside of essential items like pharmaceuticals, personal protective equipment and medical products, and food.
  • The construction industry slows significantly, as some of its activities are deemed non-essential and forced to stop.

Phase 2 (May–August 2020)

  • Non-essential businesses gradually begin to re-open over the summer months.
  • The financial fallout on households’ balance sheets continues to weigh negatively on discretionary spending, particularly on pricier durable products like vehicle sales.
  • Borders remain shut to personal travel, and the negative impact on demand for recreation, culture, accommodations, and restaurants continues.
  • The federal wage subsidy program positions business to quickly rehire as demand picks up, allowing the labour market recovery to begin and setting the foundation for stronger growth heading into the fall.

Phase 3 (September 2020–February 2021)

  • Most aspects of the economy have returned to normal operations.
  • Borders re-open to international passengers, but volumes remain well below pre-crisis levels.
  • Cultural events and recreation activities slowly resume.

The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit signal49.ca for our latest insights. Signal49 Research reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.