U.S. 20-year Outlook
Softer Growth Lies Ahead
The U.S. economy emerged from the pandemic with incredible strength but now faces a more precarious future. Trade, immigration, and fiscal policy changes are impacting all facets of the economy, from the labour and housing markets to consumer spending and investment. Growth is faltering, inflation is accelerating, and unemployment is on the rise. Low consumer and business confidence are translating into less spending and investment.
December 15, 2025 • 13-min read
Page updated: December 15, 2025
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Steady as She Slows
February 19, 2025 • 14-min read
The U.S. economy not only survived as it emerged from the pandemic, but thrived. Despite the extremely restrictive monetary environment required to fight soaring inflation, economic growth consistently outperformed expectations thanks to the robust labour market and resilient consumer sector.
About the Series
Released annually, the U.S. 20-Year Outlook provides a detailed account of the anticipated long-term outcomes for the same areas of the economy featured in the Five-Year Outlook: aggregate demand, labour markets, financial markets, trade, and fiscal policy. This report places greater emphasis on structural changes such as demographic shifts and their implications for both the labour force and spending patterns, as well as the impact of today’s fiscal policy and investment decisions on potential production output and growth over the next 20 years.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- key findings and comprehensive analysis of major trends and influential factors that will impact growth in aggregate demand;
- a dashboard showing key economic indicators for the past 20 years and projections for the next 20 years;
- downloadable forecast tables containing projection data for the next two decades.
The U.S. 20-year Outlook has been produced since January 2021.
Methodology
This online experience examines the U.S. outlook. It includes projections for several variables in the U.S. economy, including employment, spending, investment, GDP growth, trade, and fiscal deficits. It also explores anticipated trends in monetary policy and inflation. The outlook is updated quarterly using Signal49 Research’s econometric model of the U.S. economy with input from Consensus Economics and the International Monetary Fund.
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