U.S. Five-year Outlook
Prices Up, Jobs Down, and Risks Abound
Turmoil for the U.S. economy is showing no signs of slowing down. Last year’s headwinds are persisting into 2026 and are now being compounded by the latest conflict in the Middle East. The resulting surge in oil prices stands to undo much of the progress made on inflation over the last two years, weigh on already constrained household budgets, and make upcoming monetary policy decisions increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve.
April 28, 2026 • 10-min read
Page updated: April 28, 2026
Previous release
Cool-down Before the Warmup
March 9, 2026 • 10-min read
The United States economy had an eventful 2025, with tariffs, the passage of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, and the longest government shutdown in U.S. history—each event big enough to be a major economic storyline in any given year. Growth whipsawed in the first half of 2025, from a contraction in the first quarter due to a surge in imports to a strong rebound in the second quarter.
About the Series
Updated quarterly with the latest developments and data, the U.S. Five-Year Outlook provides a continuous picture of a dynamic economic landscape, helping you establish a clear understanding of our most significant trading partner’s economic conditions and answer questions such as: How will the U.S. economy perform over the next five years? What economic factors will drive this growth?
The Outlook is based on our in-house U.S. economic model, which is capable of generating various scenarios in response to shifts in global factors that may directly or indirectly influence the U.S. economy.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- a comprehensive written analysis and charts that provide a clear narrative of all core economic components for the next five years, including aggregate demand, financial markets, trade, labour markets, the housing market, and fiscal and monetary policy;
- detailed forecast datasets that can be used to augment your business planning or to validate your own forecasts.
The U.S. Outlook is available online from November 2005 onwards.
Methodology
This online experience examines the U.S. outlook. It includes projections for several variables in the U.S. economy, including employment, spending, investment, GDP growth, trade, and fiscal deficits. It also explores anticipated trends in monetary policy and inflation. The outlook is updated quarterly using Signal49 Research’s econometric model of the U.S. economy with input from Consensus Economics and the International Monetary Fund
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