Travel Markets Outlook
Resilience at Home, Renewal Abroad
Canadian travel and tourism patterns have shifted quickly amid the political and economic turmoil between Canada and the United States. Fewer Canadians are travelling across the Canada–U.S. border, opting for overseas and domestic destinations instead. Travel intentions surveys suggest this shift will persist for at least the next two to three years.
December 3, 2025 • 10-min read
Page updated: February 9, 2026
Outlooks to 2030, by region
British Columbia
Capacity Challenges Could Constrain Growth
January 9, 2026 • 13-min read
Forthcoming
Newfoundland and Labrador
Challenges Persist, Despite Pickup in Domestic Growth
February 5, 2026 • 8-min read
Forthcoming
Ontario
U.S. Travel Rebounds as Demographics Constrain Domestic Demand
February 9, 2026 • 9-min read
Forthcoming
Québec
Les visiteurs d’outre-mer apportent une bouffée d’oxygène
9 février 2026 • 12 min lecture
Forthcoming
Summer 2025 Edition
A Great Disorder
Predictability and safety are fundamental for tourism growth. Over the last several months, the seismic global political and economic shifts stemming from policy changes in the United States have dried up these precious resources. The trade conflict between Canada and the U.S. is impacting household incomes, the labour market outlook, and confidence in future economic conditions.
July 8, 2025 • 7-min read
New Brunswick
Recovery Amid Economic and Demographic Challenges
August 7, 2025 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
Newfoundland and Labrador
Growth to Resume in 2025, but Hurdles Remain
August 7, 2025 • 8-min read
Forthcoming
Ontario
Domestic Tourism Grows as Cross-Border Tensions Mount
August 7, 2025 • 8-min read
Forthcoming
Prince Edward Island
Strategic Support and Domestic Travel Fuelling Growth
August 11, 2025 • 7-min read
Forthcoming
Québec
La bonne dynamique intérieure se heurte à des turbulences extérieures
31 juillet 2025 • 9 min lecture
Forthcoming
Saskatchewan
Domestic Tourism on the Rise Amid Cross-Border Trade Frictions
August 7, 2025 • 8-min read
Forthcoming
Canadian Tourism Research Institute
This institute serves the travel and tourism industry by providing in-depth analysis of travel activity by both Canadians and visitors. Keep up-to-date on trends and market intelligence though consolidated global data, regional forecasts, and seasonal travel surveys.
About the Series
This online experience presents a forecast and interactive dashboard of Canadian tourism. It explores our expectations for domestic and international visitor growth and factors that will impact the tourism industry over the medium term.
The Travel Markets Outlook is available online from May 2004 onwards.
Methodology
The Travel Markets Outlook (TMO) is a biannual forecast of tourism demand in 10 Canadian provinces, one territory, and 10 metropolitan areas. The TMO relies on a broad review of academic and grey literature, available data sources, econometric modelling, and discussions with Signal49 Research’s Economic Forecasting team.
Forecasts of domestic tourism rely on travel intentions surveys, our in-house national, provincial, and metropolitan economic forecasts, and our demographic forecast. International tourism forecasts are generated from country-specific growth projections and adjusted historical travel patterns to produce distinct provincial and metropolitan outlooks. Detailed historical data is derived from Statistics Canada’s National Travel Survey and Visitor Travel Survey. Historical estimates from 2020 to 2025 are partially derived from supplemental sources.
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If you have any questions about the Travel Markets Outlook, or about becoming a subscriber, please contact us.