Provincial Outlook
Provincial Economies at a Turning Point
Provincial economies have shown notable resilience this year. Labour markets have stabilized after early-year volatility, with employment gains concentrated in the Prairies and in Newfoundland and Labrador. Despite ongoing trade disruptions with the United States and China, consumer spending has held up, behind good income growth and high savings from past years.
December 1, 2025 • 18-min read
Page updated: December 16, 2025
Provincial Outlooks
Manitoba
Navigating Trade Risks and Fuelling Future Growth
December 8, 2025 • 14-min read
Forthcoming
Newfoundland and Labrador
Demographic Pressures Weigh on Future Prospects
December 8, 2025 • 14-min read
Forthcoming
Prince Edward Island
Trade Tensions to Weigh on Economic Growth
December 9, 2025 • 14-min read
Forthcoming
Summer 2025 Edition
Treading Water
Provincial economies appear to have performed better than anticipated during the first half of the year. Export growth was particularly strong in the first quarter, as U.S. firms boosted inventories in anticipation of potential tariffs. Consumers also maintained a relatively healthy pace of spending despite growing economic uncertainty, supported by still solid wage growth and stronger than expected job gains in a few provinces.
August 27, 2025 • 18-min read
Newfoundland and Labrador
Demographic Shifts Will Strain the Outlook
September 9, 2025 • 11-min read
Forthcoming
Prince Edward Island
Employment to Slow Amid Trade Tensions
September 9, 2025 • 13-min read
Forthcoming
About the Series
Compare provincial economic landscapes with timely forecasts.
Released four times a year, the Provincial Five-Year Outlook provides a comprehensive forecast of provincial economies and the key drivers and factors currently impacting their growth. The structure of these reports allows for easy cross-provincial comparisons and deeper dives into trends affecting each province to help you answer questions such as: Which province is expected to see significant GDP growth? Where might there be labour shortages? What major investment projects will drive the long-term outlook?
A team of economists works on each quarterly release, ensuring accuracy and incorporating the latest policy announcements and large-scale capital projects into our proprietary provincial economics model, which contains 3,000 variables and equations uniquely structured to each province. This complex model provides the basis for insightful analysis and forecasts on core areas of the economy: demographics and labour markets, government, households and spending, investment, and trade and industry.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- economic analysis and insights on the trends and factors that will have the most impact in the coming years and highlight regional differences;
- downloadable forecast data, including an all-provinces report with key economic indicators for GDP, employment, and retail sales by year and per-province data on a larger number of indicators (GDP, CPI, household income and savings, labour force, employment, retail sales, housing starts, and immigration and migration);
- a dashboard that lets you quickly assess different aspects of the economy and zero in on what’s important to you, with user-friendly charts that include both historic and forecast data.
The Provincial Outlook has been produced since August 2001.
Methodology
This online experience examines the economic outlook for Canada’s provinces. The quarterly outlook is based on detailed analysis of local and regional conditions combined with Signal49 Research’s proprietary macroeconometric model of the provincial economies. Updated quarterly, the model contains almost 3,000 variables and equations uniquely structured to each province. Inputs and outputs include 30 expenditure components of gross domestic product, the interaction of 25 industry sectors, detailed population and labour-force conditions by age group, interprovincial trade, and pricing and investment activity..
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Questions?
If you have any questions about the Provincial Outlook, or about becoming a subscriber, please contact us.