Provincial Outlook
Risks Compound with Middle East Conflict
Following a chaotic 2025, provincial economies are off to a rocky start in 2026. Canada-wide, labour markets have shed more than 110,000 jobs in the first four months of the year, reversing gains made late in 2025. This poor labour market performance coupled with an abundance of uncertain means provincial economies are anticipated to post only modest real GDP gains this year.
June 9, 2026 • 18-min read
Page updated: June 24, 2026
Provincial Outlooks
British Columbia
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Month XX, 2026 • XX-min read
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Newfoundland and Labrador
Demographic Headwinds Cloud Long-Term Growth
June 24, 2026 • 13-min read
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Ontario
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Month XX, 2026 • XX-min read
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Prince Edward Island
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Month XX, 2026 • XX-min read
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Quebec
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Month XX, 2026 • XX-min read
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Québec
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Month XX, 2026 • XX-min read
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Saskatchewan
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Month XX, 2026 • XX-min read
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Winter 2026 Edition
Hoping for Stability
After a rocky 2025, provincial economies are in store for another year of only modest growth in 2026. Population declines in 2026 and 2027 among most provinces will weigh on labour force growth and job gains. These weaker demographic and labour market outlooks, coupled with persistent uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, will rein in consumer spending over the near term.
March 4, 2026 • 18-min read
Manitoba
Investment-Led Growth Offsets Demographic Headwinds
March 25, 2026 • 13-min read
Forthcoming
Newfoundland and Labrador
Future Growth Faces Demographic Headwinds
March 25, 2026 • 13-min read
Forthcoming
Prince Edward Island
Consumers Will Drive Growth as Residential Investment Eases
March 16, 2026 • 13-min read
Forthcoming
Saskatchewan
Strong Fundamentals and Major Investments Fuel Growth
March 16, 2026 • 13-min read
Forthcoming
About the Series
Compare provincial economic landscapes with timely forecasts.
Released four times a year, the Provincial Five-Year Outlook provides a comprehensive forecast of provincial economies and the key drivers and factors currently impacting their growth. The structure of these reports allows for easy cross-provincial comparisons and deeper dives into trends affecting each province to help you answer questions such as: Which province is expected to see significant GDP growth? Where might there be labour shortages? What major investment projects will drive the long-term outlook?
A team of economists works on each quarterly release, ensuring accuracy and incorporating the latest policy announcements and large-scale capital projects into our proprietary provincial economics model, which contains 3,000 variables and equations uniquely structured to each province. This complex model provides the basis for insightful analysis and forecasts on core areas of the economy: demographics and labour markets, government, households and spending, investment, and trade and industry.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- economic analysis and insights on the trends and factors that will have the most impact in the coming years and highlight regional differences;
- downloadable forecast data, including an all-provinces report with key economic indicators for GDP, employment, and retail sales by year and per-province data on a larger number of indicators (GDP, CPI, household income and savings, labour force, employment, retail sales, housing starts, and immigration and migration);
- a dashboard that lets you quickly assess different aspects of the economy and zero in on what’s important to you, with user-friendly charts that include both historic and forecast data.
The Provincial Outlook has been produced since August 2001.
Methodology
This online experience examines the economic outlook for Canada’s provinces. The quarterly outlook is based on detailed analysis of local and regional conditions combined with Signal49 Research’s proprietary macroeconometric model of the provincial economies. Updated quarterly, the model contains almost 3,000 variables and equations uniquely structured to each province. Inputs and outputs include 30 expenditure components of gross domestic product, the interaction of 25 industry sectors, detailed population and labour-force conditions by age group, interprovincial trade, and pricing and investment activity.
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Questions?
If you have any questions about the Provincial Outlook, or about becoming a subscriber, please contact us.