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Canadian Economics

Signal49 Research is Canada’s largest private economic analysis and forecasting unit, offering a comprehensive suite of regional and industry-level forecasts, custom research, and economic data services. Powered by expert economists and advanced modelling, our timely insights help you understand the impact of macroeconomic trends, plan for a shifting economic landscape, and stay ahead of changing market conditions.

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Featured Research

Series:Interest Rate Announcement

Rates Unchanged As Bank Sees Inflation Spike As Temporary

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent, the Bank Rate at 2.50 per cent, and the deposit rate at 2.20 per cent, the fourth consecutive…
Topics: Business and Household Indicators, Canadian Economic Analysis
Global Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis
Employment Rate in Canada, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Household in Economics, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Population Research, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import, World Economy
Quick Take
April 29, 2026 3-min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Federal Spring Economic Update 2026: Sticking to the Plan

Français The spring economic update showed that the federal government is doubling down on its plan to build the nation, with most policy measures focused on boosting private investment. A…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Energy Economics, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Household in Economics, Housing Market Forecast, Innovation and Growth, Labour Market, Oil and Gas, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
April 29, 2026 10-min read

Rethinking How Canada Forecasts Skills Supply—April 2026

From Jobs to Journeys: Rethinking How Canada Forecasts Skills Supply Most tools for forecasting skills supply are outdated. In this report, we highlight our new skills forecasting model—the Career Paths…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Skills and Workforce Development
Subject Matter: Business Research, Employment Rate in Canada
Future of Work, Job Transitions, Labour Market, Post Secondary Education in Canada, Salary Research, Upskilling the Workforce
Summary for executives​
April 7, 2026 3 min read
Ontario budget, Ontario landscape
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Ontario Budget 2026: Another Province with Bigger-than-expected Deficits

Persistent trade tensions with the United States and global economic uncertainty have once again disrupted Ontario’s fiscal outlook, leading to an expected deficit of $13.8 billion for fiscal year 2026–27,…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Energy Economics, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Healthcare in Canada, Household in Economics, Housing Market Forecast, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Ontario, Salary Research, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
March 27, 2026 5-min read

Deepening Canada–Ireland Trade and Investment—September 2025

Beyond Barriers: Deepening Canada–Ireland Trade and Investment Canada and Ireland have cultivated a dynamic and resilient economic relationship, nearly doubling trade since the implementation of the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Global Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Economy Analysis
GDP Canada, Industry Analysis, Innovation and Growth, Population Research, Tourism Analysis, Trade Export and Import, World Economy
Impact paper, Summary for executives​
September 25, 2025 32 min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Quebec’s Prudent Path to Balance Narrows: Our Analysis of the Quebec Budget 2026

Français The province’s deficit for fiscal year (FY) 2026-27 is projected to be $6.3 billion, down from $7.1 billion from the autumn fiscal update. The deficit is forecast to gradually…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Canada Budget
Consumer Trends, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Education in Canada, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Health Care Economics, Healthcare in Canada, Household in Economics, Industry Analysis, Innovation and Growth, Innovation Economy, Innovation Policy Strategy, Population Research, Québec, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Commentary
March 19, 2026 4-min read
Series:Industry Lens

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Industry Lens: Agriculture—March 2026

Outgrowing Its Own Margins In the latter half of the decade, Canada’s agriculture industry will be shaped by slower global economic growth, heightened geopolitical fragmentation, increased climate variability, and rising…
Topics: Industry Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Economic Forecast
Economy Analysis, Extreme Weather, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Online Experience
March 19, 2026 13 min read
Series:Interest Rate Announcement

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Amid Middle East Uncertainty

The Bank of Canada held the target for the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent, with the Bank Rate at 2.50 per cent and the deposit rate at 2.20 per…
Topics: Business and Household Indicators, Canadian Economic Analysis
Global Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Canada Budget, Consumer Trends
Economy Analysis, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Inflation Impact, Interest Rate, Oil and Gas, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Quick Take
March 18, 2026 3-min read
Series:Provincial 5-Year Outlook

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Provincial Five-Year Outlook—March 2026

Hoping for Stability This quarter, we look at the effects of stalled population growth and ongoing trade uncertainty on provincial economies across the country. How much will federal efforts to…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: 5 Year Outlook, Business Research
Canada Budget, Consumer Trends, Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Employment Rate in Canada, Energy Economics, GDP Canada, Household in Economics, Immigrants Coming to Canada, Immigration Policies in Canada, Industry Analysis, Inflation Impact, Labour Market, Oil and Gas, Population Research, Provincial Research, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import
Online Experience
March 4, 2026 18 min read
Series:Provincial Fiscal Outlook

Soft Oil Prices Take a Toll on the Books: Our Analysis of the Alberta Budget 2026

The province is forecasting a deficit of $9.4 billion for fiscal year 2026–27, with expected shortfalls of $7.6 billion in 2027–28 and $6.9 billion in 2028–29. These figures are significantly…
Topics: Provincial Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Alberta, Canada Budget
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Fiscal Updates, GDP Canada, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Oil and Gas, Provincial Research, Tariffs
Commentary
February 27, 2026 5-min read

Following Career Paths to Forecast Skills—February 2026

From Jobs to Journeys: Enhancing Forecasts With the Career Paths and Skill Transformations Model In this research, we delve into the Career Paths and Skill Transformations (CaST) model, which leverages…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Skills and Workforce Development
Subject Matter: Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis
Education in Canada, Job Transitions, Labour Market, Post Secondary Education in Canada, Salary Research
Primer
February 26, 2026 28 min read

Bold Ideas Toronto Listening Tour—February 2026

Bold Ideas for Canada: Toronto | February 4–5, 2026 Canada has the capacity to lead in a rapidly changing world if we are prepared to think bigger and act with…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, DEI Research
Health and Healthcare, Indigenous Communities, Skills and Workforce Development, Technology and Innovation Analysis
Subject Matter: Artificial Intelligence, Business Research
Climate Change Adaptation, Economy Analysis, Education in Canada, First Nations in Canada, Future of Work, Health Services Research, Healthcare in Canada, Inclusive Growth, Innovation and Growth, Innovation Policy Strategy, Labour Market, Northern Canada, Post Secondary Education in Canada, Salary Research, Trade Export and Import
Listening Tour Insights
February 25, 2026 36 min read

Latest Research

Series:Labour Force Survey

Labour Market Slack Continues to Build

In April, employment remained broadly stable, with a modest decline of 18,000 positions, while the employment rate edged down to 60.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 6.9…
Topics: Business and Household Indicators, Canadian Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Business Research, Employment Rate in Canada
Household in Economics, Industry Analysis, Labour Market, Ontario, Salary Research, Trade Export and Import
Quick Take
May 8, 2026 3-min read
Series:Trade

Gold and Crude Oil Behind the Export Jump in March

Canada’s merchandise exports rose 8.5 per cent (month-over-month) in March. Meanwhile, imports were down 1.6 per cent. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade balance shifted from a deficit of $5.1…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Global Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: Economy Analysis, Industry Analysis
Oil and Gas, Tariffs, Trade Export and Import, World Economy
Quick Take
May 5, 2026 3-min read
Series:Canadian 5-Year Outlook

inFact subscribers or purchase required. to access.

Canada’s Five-Year Housing Outlook—May 2026

Plenty of Risks Lurk Residential markets are strained from a worrisome international economic outlook, consumer stress, unfavourable demographics, an oversupply of homes, and alarmed homebuilders. The U.S.–Iran war also poses…
Topics: Canadian Economic Analysis, Industry Economic Analysis
Urban City Economic Analysis
Subject Matter: 5 Year Outlook, Consumer Trends
Economic Forecast, Economy Analysis, Employment Rate in Canada, Household in Economics, Housing Market Forecast, Immigrants Coming to Canada, Immigration Policies in Canada, Industry Analysis, Interest Rate, Labour Market, Population Research
Online Experience
May 5, 2026 20 min read
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