U.S. Five-year Outlook
Cool-down Before the Warmup
The United States economy had an eventful 2025, with tariffs, the passage of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act, and the longest government shutdown in U.S. history—each event big enough to be a major economic storyline in any given year. Growth whipsawed in the first half of 2025, from a contraction in the first quarter due to a surge in imports to a strong rebound in the second quarter.
March 9, 2026 • 10-min read
Page updated: March 9, 2026
Previous release
The Slowdown Takes Hold
November 3, 2025 • 10-min read
The U.S. economy whipsawed in the first half of 2025 as on-again off-again tariffs sowed chaos and uncertainty. After a mild contraction in the first quarter of the year, growth rebounded strongly in the second quarter. This whiplash was largely a trade story driven by dramatic swings in imports in response to tariff announcements and implementation.
About the Series
Updated quarterly with the latest developments and data, the U.S. Five-Year Outlook provides a continuous picture of a dynamic economic landscape, helping you establish a clear understanding of our most significant trading partner’s economic conditions and answer questions such as: How will the U.S. economy perform over the next five years? What economic factors will drive this growth?
The Outlook is based on our in-house U.S. economic model, which is capable of generating various scenarios in response to shifts in global factors that may directly or indirectly influence the U.S. economy.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- a comprehensive written analysis and charts that provide a clear narrative of all core economic components for the next five years, including aggregate demand, financial markets, trade, labour markets, the housing market, and fiscal and monetary policy;
- detailed forecast datasets that can be used to augment your business planning or to validate your own forecasts.
The U.S. Outlook is available online from November 2005 onwards.
Methodology
This online experience examines the U.S. outlook. It includes projections for several variables in the U.S. economy, including employment, spending, investment, GDP growth, trade, and fiscal deficits. It also explores anticipated trends in monetary policy and inflation. The outlook is updated quarterly using Signal49 Research’s econometric model of the U.S. economy with input from Consensus Economics and the International Monetary Fund
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Questions?
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