Labour Relations Outlook
Bargaining in 2026: A Look Ahead
The Labour Relations Outlook explores themes in collective bargaining for 2026, including an overview of the Canadian economic landscape, insights into the current labour relations climate, and projected wage increases for unionized workers.
Page updated: November 11, 2025
Research
Part 1
Compensation Trends Forecast for Unionized Employees
Heading into 2026, unions and employers are preparing for negotiations that will be shaped by cost pressures, workforce expectations, and rapid change. While both sides have some priorities in common, they often view these issues through different lenses. In the private sector, discussions are increasingly tied to productivity and competitiveness.
November 11, 2025 • 10-min read
About the Series
Compensation trends and top bargaining issues for unionized employees.
The Labour Relations Outlook provides an annual evidence-based view of what unions and employers expect in the year ahead as they enter bargaining. Drawing on national survey data, the report highlights the key issues shaping negotiations, including differences in priorities between the public and private sectors.
The series offers detailed insights into anticipated wage growth in unionized environments, with breakdowns by sector and industry as well as trends in average and median negotiated salary increases. It examines the typical length of collective agreements, expected wage progression over the life of those agreements, and whether projected increases are likely to keep pace with inflation. The series also explores the prevalence of short-term incentive plans and assesses the overall bargaining climate, including areas of alignment or tension between unions and employers.
For labour relations leaders in Canada, the Labour Relations Outlook is an essential tool for understanding emerging pressures, anticipating negotiation dynamics, and positioning their organizations for constructive, well-informed bargaining outcomes.
The Labour Relations Outlook series has been produced since February 2001.
Methodology
The Labour Relations Outlook summarizes the results of Signal49 Research’s annual Compensation Planning Survey, which gathers data on average salary projections, rewards priorities, business conditions, non-unionized and unionized pay, and short and long-term incentive pay.
This survey is sent to predominately large and medium-sized Canadian organizations operating in different regions and sectors. This outlook reports only on unionized compensation. Data for non-unionized employees is presented in the Compensation Planning Outlook. All data was analyzed using IBM SPSS and R.
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