Canada 20-year Outlook
Steering Through Transition
Canada’s economy will gear down over the next two decades, driven in large part by demographic trends. A surge in retirements over the next five years, combined with tighter immigration policies, will limit labour force growth. These shifts will also strain public finances and underpin a more modest outlook for Canadian economic growth over the long term.
December 11, 2025 • 20-min read
Page updated: January 6, 2026
Canada’s 20-year Outlooks
Fiscal Polidy
Title
Month XX, 2025 • XX-min read
Forthcoming
Business Investment and Energy
Title
Month XX, 2025 • XX-min read
Forthcoming
Output and Productivity
Steady Growth in Potential Output Ahead
December 15, 2025 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
Sectors and Trade
Title
Month XX, 2025 • XX-min read
Forthcoming
Summer 2025 Update
Tempered by Transitions
Although current trade conflicts present pressing near-term concerns, Canada’s economy will navigate a barrage of structural transitions over the next two decades. Demographic changes will touch nearly every part of the economy, fostering important shifts in the labour force, consumer spending patterns, housing demand, and the country’s trade balance.
August 11, 2025 • 20-min read
About the Series
A long-term economic forecast to help you manage structural change and long-term planning.
Published twice a year, the Canada 20-year Outlook provides a clear view of the country’s long-term economic performance. It focuses on the enduring forces, like demographics, productivity, and investment, that influence economic potential and performance across sectors.
Built on our national economic model, one of the most sophisticated in the country, this forecast draws on thousands of variables, hundreds of behavioural equations, and our proprietary demographic model. It also incorporates projections from our U.S. model to capture international influences on Canada’s economy and accounts for emerging technologies, including productivity gains from AI and innovation.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- comprehensive analysis and key findings on all core components of the economy;
- multiple charts and visualizations of key indicators, both past and future;
- downloadable forecast data for your own internal use. Forecast categories include demographics and labour, fiscal policy, households and housing, business investment and energy, output and productivity, and sectors and trade.
The Canada 20-year Outlook is available online from November 2000 onwards.
Methodology
The Canadian Outlook is updated each quarter using Signal49 Research’s macro-econometric model of the Canadian economy. The model was developed over 40+ years and includes 1,700 variables covering the National Income and Expenditure Accounts as well as detailed indicators related to population, labour, productivity, wages, prices, investment, financial markets, capital flows and government finance.
Where leaders turn when faced with Canada’s toughest problems.
Our subscriptions deliver key intelligence to your fingertips so you can act on critical opportunities with confidence.
Questions?
If you have any questions about the Canada 20-year Outlook, or about becoming a subscriber, please contact us.