Canada Five-year Outlook
Storm Before the Calm
The headwinds Canada’s economy faced in 2025 have clearly carried over to 2025, as the worst oil shock since the Russian invasion of Ukraine shot oil prices upwards. This unfortunate economic news has only added headwinds to the economy, as elevated inflation, an already scarred consumer, and weak global demand all continue to weigh on the economy. The result is Canada finds itself in a very shallow technical recession to start the year.
July 9, 2026 • 27-min read
Page updated: August 4, 2026
Canada’s Five-year Outlooks
Business Investment
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Month X, 2026 • X-min read
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Energy
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Month X, 2026 • X-min read
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Government
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Month X, 2026 • X-min read
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Household Consumption
Demographics and Trade Prospects Will Shape Spending
August 4, 2026 • 10-min read
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Household Income and Employment
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Month X, 2026 • X-min read
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Industry Trends
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Month X, 2026 • X-min read
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International Trade
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Month X, 2026 • X-min read
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Spring 2026 Edition
Middle East Turmoil Adds a New Layer of Risk
After a chaotic 2025 where the Canadian economy expanded by 1.7 per cent—its slowest pace since 2020—it has stumbled out of the gate this year. The labour market shed 109,000 jobs in the first two months of 2026, reversing the gains made late last year, and the economy likely grew minimally, if at all, in the first quarter.
April 2, 2026 • 30-min read
Household Consumption
Consumption to Moderate Amid Demographic Downshift and Oil-Fuelled Inflation
April 28, 2026 • 12-min read
Forthcoming
Household Income and Employment
From Near-Term Volatility to Medium-Term Worker Scarcity
May 20, 2026 • 8-min read
Forthcoming
Industry Trends
Industries Continue to Roll With the Punches in 2026
April 30, 2026 • 12-min read
Forthcoming
About the Series
A trusted national economic forecast to help you prepare for what’s ahead.
The Canada Five-year Outlook distills thousands of data points into a clear, accessible view of the economy’s trajectory and the macroeconomic trends that matter most. Our forecast is built on our large-scale national economic model, drawing on thousands of economic variables and behavioural equations and ensuring consistency between them.
Published quarterly, the Canada Five-year Outlook provides comprehensive highlights across Canada’s economic fundamentals, along with nine standalone reports that explore each component in greater depth. It addresses today’s most pressing economic questions, offering insight into the anticipated effects of external pressures like global conflicts, policy shifts, and trade dynamics. The outlook provides the timely analysis and information you need to navigate evolving economic conditions with clarity and confidence. For over 40 years, it has been one of our most widely read reports.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- clear, unbiased analysis, key findings, and trends;
- charts and graphs of core indicators that include historical and forecast data;
- downloadable forecast data for business investment, energy, financial markets, government, household consumption, household income and employment, industry trends, and international trade.
The Canadian 5-year Outlook is available online from August 2001 onwards.
Methodology
The Canadian Outlook is updated each quarter using the Signal49 Research’s macro-econometric model of the Canadian economy. The model was developed over 40+ years and includes 1,700 variables covering the National Income and Expenditure Accounts as well as detailed indicators related to population, labour, productivity, wages, prices, investment, financial markets, capital flows and government finance.
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