Canada Five-year Outlook
A Step Back, Then Forward
Canada’s economy regained momentum in the second quarter, with real GDP expanding at an annualized rate of 3.3 per cent, marking its strongest quarterly performance since before the onset of the Canada–United States trade dispute in early 2025. The rebound was led by a recovery in exports, driven largely by stronger auto production, but growth was broadly based. Household spending continued to surprise on the upside despite higher inflation, higher energy costs, and weaker population growth, while business investment posted its strongest quarterly gain in two years.
October 15, 2026 • 27-min read
Page updated: October 15, 2026
Canada’s Five-year Outlooks
Business Investment
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Energy
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Financial Markets
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Government
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Household Consumption
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Household Income and Employment
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Housing
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Industry Trends
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International Trade
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Summer 2026 Edition
Storm Before the Calm
The headwinds Canada’s economy faced in 2025 have clearly carried over to 2025, as the worst oil shock since the Russian invasion of Ukraine shot oil prices upwards. This unfortunate economic news has only added headwinds to the economy, as elevated inflation, an already scarred consumer, and weak global demand all continue to weigh on the economy. The result is Canada finds itself in a very shallow technical recession to start the year.
July 9, 2026 • 27-min read
Business Investment
Measured Optimism With Structural Constraints
August 13, 2026 • 12-min read
Forthcoming
Household Consumption
Demographics and Trade Prospects Will Shape Spending
August 4, 2026 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
Household Income and Employment
Demographics and Technology Will Drive Labour Markets
August 27, 2026 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
Industry Trends
Outlook for Industries Remains Clouded With Uncertainty
August 13, 2026 • 17-min read
Forthcoming
About the Series
A trusted national economic forecast to help you prepare for what’s ahead.
The Canada Five-year Outlook distills thousands of data points into a clear, accessible view of the economy’s trajectory and the macroeconomic trends that matter most. Our forecast is built on our large-scale national economic model, drawing on thousands of economic variables and behavioural equations and ensuring consistency between them.
Published quarterly, the Canada Five-year Outlook provides comprehensive highlights across Canada’s economic fundamentals, along with nine standalone reports that explore each component in greater depth. It addresses today’s most pressing economic questions, offering insight into the anticipated effects of external pressures like global conflicts, policy shifts, and trade dynamics. The outlook provides the timely analysis and information you need to navigate evolving economic conditions with clarity and confidence. For over 40 years, it has been one of our most widely read reports.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- clear, unbiased analysis, key findings, and trends;
- charts and graphs of core indicators that include historical and forecast data;
- downloadable forecast data for business investment, energy, financial markets, government, household consumption, household income and employment, industry trends, and international trade.
The Canadian 5-year Outlook is available online from August 2001 onwards.
Methodology
The Canadian Outlook is updated each quarter using the Signal49 Research’s macro-econometric model of the Canadian economy. The model was developed over 40+ years and includes 1,700 variables covering the National Income and Expenditure Accounts as well as detailed indicators related to population, labour, productivity, wages, prices, investment, financial markets, capital flows and government finance.
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