Canada Five-year Outlook
Middle East Turmoil Adds a New Layer of Risk
After a chaotic 2025 where the Canadian economy expanded by 1.7 per cent—its slowest pace since 2020—it has stumbled out of the gate this year. The labour market shed 109,000 jobs in the first two months of 2026, reversing the gains made late last year, and the economy likely grew minimally, if at all, in the first quarter.
April 2, 2026 • 30-min read
Page updated: May 5, 2026
Canada’s Five-year Outlooks
Household Consumption
Consumption to Moderate Amid Demographic Downshift and Oil-Fuelled Inflation
April 28, 2026 • 12-min read
Forthcoming
Household Income and Employment
Title
Month XX, 2026 • XX-min read
Forthcoming
Industry Trends
Industries Continue to Roll With the Punches in 2026
April 30, 2026 • 12-min read
Forthcoming
Winter 2026 Edition
Reaching the Fork in the Road
With 2025 in the rear-view mirror, 2026 looks to be another year full of economic uncertainty. The principal turning point will come later in the year, when U.S. mid-term elections and the renegotiation of the CUSMA free trade agreement will decide the medium-term fate of Canada’s economy. If the resolution to the trade dispute is orderly, that would boost Canada’s prospects, while if trade factors worsen, economic prospects will also worsen.
January 9, 2026 • 28-min read
Business Investment
March 5, 2026 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
Energy
March 5, 2026 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
Financial Markets
March 9, 2026 • 11-min read
Forthcoming
Government
March 5, 2026 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
Household Consumption
March 9, 2026 • 13-min read
Forthcoming
Household Income and Employment
March 11, 2026 • 8-min read
Forthcoming
Housing
March 9, 2026 • 13-min read
Forthcoming
Industry Trends
March 12, 2026 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
International Trade
March 10, 2026 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
About the Series
A trusted national economic forecast to help you prepare for what’s ahead.
The Canada Five-year Outlook distills thousands of data points into a clear, accessible view of the economy’s trajectory and the macroeconomic trends that matter most. Our forecast is built on our large-scale national economic model, drawing on thousands of economic variables and behavioural equations and ensuring consistency between them.
Published quarterly, the Canada Five-year Outlook provides comprehensive highlights across Canada’s economic fundamentals, along with nine standalone reports that explore each component in greater depth. It addresses today’s most pressing economic questions, offering insight into the anticipated effects of external pressures like global conflicts, policy shifts, and trade dynamics. The outlook provides the timely analysis and information you need to navigate evolving economic conditions with clarity and confidence. For over 40 years, it has been one of our most widely read reports.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- clear, unbiased analysis, key findings, and trends;
- charts and graphs of core indicators that include historical and forecast data;
- downloadable forecast data for business investment, energy, financial markets, government, household consumption, household income and employment, industry trends, and international trade.
The Canadian 5-year Outlook is available online from August 2001 onwards.
Methodology
The Canadian Outlook is updated each quarter using the Signal49 Research’s macro-econometric model of the Canadian economy. The model was developed over 40+ years and includes 1,700 variables covering the National Income and Expenditure Accounts as well as detailed indicators related to population, labour, productivity, wages, prices, investment, financial markets, capital flows and government finance.
Where leaders turn when faced with Canada’s toughest problems.
Our subscriptions deliver key intelligence to your fingertips so you can act on critical opportunities with confidence.
Questions?
If you have any questions about the Canadian 5-year Outlook, or about becoming a subscriber, please contact us.