Canada Five-year Outlook
Reaching the Fork in the Road
With 2025 in the rear-view mirror, 2026 looks to be another year full of economic uncertainty. The principal turning point will come later in the year, when U.S. mid-term elections and the renegotiation of the CUSMA free trade agreement will decide the medium-term fate of Canada’s economy. If the resolution to the trade dispute is orderly, that would boost Canada’s prospects, while if trade factors worsen, economic prospects will also worsen. Regardless, our forecast for 2026 and beyond hinges on the direction of U.S. policy, much like it did in 2025.
January 9, 2026 • 28-min read
Page updated: January 9, 2026
Canada’s Five-year Outlooks
Fall 2025 Edition
Triggering a Paradigm Shift
The Canadian economy is feeling the strain of a turbulent 2025. In the second quarter, real GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 1.6 per cent, marking the sharpest quarterly decline since 2016, excluding the pandemic.
October 9, 2025 • 24-min read
Financial Markets
Uncertain Times Challenge Central Banks
November 5, 2025 • 11-min read
Forthcoming
Government
Ambitious Policy to Strain Government Finances
October 30, 2025 • 10-min read
Forthcoming
Household Consumption
Slowing Population Growth Will Compound Spending Weakness
October 28, 2025 • 12-min read
Forthcoming
Household Income and Employment
From Trade Challenges to Demographic Slowdown
November 12, 2025 • 8-min read
Forthcoming
About the Series
A trusted national economic forecast to help you prepare for what’s ahead.
The Canada Five-year Outlook distills thousands of data points into a clear, accessible view of the economy’s trajectory and the macroeconomic trends that matter most. Our forecast is built on our large-scale national economic model, drawing on thousands of economic variables and behavioural equations and ensuring consistency between them.
Published quarterly, the Canada Five-year Outlook provides comprehensive highlights across Canada’s economic fundamentals, along with nine standalone reports that explore each component in greater depth. It addresses today’s most pressing economic questions, offering insight into the anticipated effects of external pressures like global conflicts, policy shifts, and trade dynamics. The outlook provides the timely analysis and information you need to navigate evolving economic conditions with clarity and confidence. For over 40 years, it has been one of our most widely read reports.
Inside each report you’ll find:
- clear, unbiased analysis, key findings, and trends;
- charts and graphs of core indicators that include historical and forecast data;
- downloadable forecast data for business investment, energy, financial markets, government, household consumption, household income and employment, industry trends, and international trade.
The Canadian 5-year Outlook is available online from August 2001 onwards.
Methodology
The Canadian Outlook is updated each quarter using the Signal49 Research’s macro-econometric model of the Canadian economy. The model was developed over 40+ years and includes 1,700 variables covering the National Income and Expenditure Accounts as well as detailed indicators related to population, labour, productivity, wages, prices, investment, financial markets, capital flows and government finance.
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