Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: June 2, 2020
Pandemic wreaks havoc in resale activity in April
by Robin Wiebe
- Social distancing, skeptical lenders, and collapsed consumer confidence have ravaged resale markets. Most market participants have sharply curtailed activity amid a fog of uncertainty. Federal policy moves, including recent sharp interest rate cuts, will eventually improve conditions, but the immediate future is bleak. A healthy employment rebound would help.
- Sales were down in 29 of our 30 markets in April. Only Newfoundland and Labrador saw volumes rise. Most month-to-month declines were in the 50‚ per cent range. Every market‚ April sales trailed its year-earlier level, again with widespread drops of 50‚ per cent. Listings were also down in almost all markets, from both the previous month and the prior year. Sales and listing volatility makes assessing current market states virtually impossible. In many markets, listings fell more than sales, creating a temporary and likely illusionary sellers state.
- Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal all suffered big sales declines in April; these were also well off their year-earlier levels. Volumes hit record lows in Vancouver, Calgary, and Montreal.
- Similar sales and listings drops in Montreal, Calgary, and Toronto left those cities‚ sales-to-listings ratios relatively unchanged from the previous month. Vancouver‚ April ratio was also little changed from its March level, despite a larger percentage drop in listings than in sales.
- More broadly, across our 30 markets, prices fell month-over-month in all but two cities. Prices were down in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal last month, but only Toronto’s drop was double-digit. Nonetheless, values remained above year-earlier levels in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal.
Recent market performance
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*average month-to-month change during latest three months.
Forecast of near-term price growth (year-over-year)
| +7% | Fraser Valley, Kitchener, Guelph, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Sherbrooke | |
| 5–6.9% | Halifax, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, London, Windsor, Moncton | |
| 3–4.9% | Vancouver, St. Catharines | |
| 0–2.9% | Victoria, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Québec City, Saint John | |
| Falling | Calgary, Edmonton, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Newfoundland |
Resale indicators for April 2020
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | ||||||
| Market1 | Market classification |
Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Balanced market range3 |
Price ($) |
| Victoria | 2,676 | 5,376 | 686,617 | |||
| m/m % | Balanced | –54.5 | –45.6 | 0.499 | 0.482–0.762 | –7.3 |
| y/y % | –58.3 | –52.1 | 0.4 | |||
| 11,424 | 22,776 | 1,009,570 | ||||
| Vancouver | Balanced | –57.9 | –53.1 | 0.510 | 0.438–0.721 | –6.2 |
| –39.6 | –58.1 | 1.8 | ||||
| 6,348 | 11,820 | 757,581 | ||||
| Fraser Valley4 | Balanced | –54.8 | –52.5 | 0.547 | 0.446–0.716 | –1.1 |
| –50.0 | –58.3 | 10.0 | ||||
| 7,884 | 12,432 | 408,274 | ||||
| Calgary | Balanced | –53.1 | –60.5 | 0.618 | 0.466–0.729 | –4.4 |
| –61.5 | –67.7 | –7.3 | ||||
| 8,592 | 15,768 | 350,067 | ||||
| Edmonton | Balanced | –46.6 | –52.8 | 0.539 | 0.448–0.730 | –0.1 |
| –53.9 | –59.5 | –3.5 | ||||
| 1,608 | 3,012 | 296,709 | ||||
| Regina | Balanced | –50.4 | –48.1 | 0.523 | 0.491–0.757 | –5.2 |
| –54.1 | –57.7 | 1.2 | ||||
| 2,580 | 5,832 | 320,230 | ||||
| Saskatoon | Balanced | –47.4 | –38.9 | 0.437 | 0.425–0.681 | –3.2 |
| –48.7 | –49.3 | 1.0 | ||||
| 7,392 | 12,720 | 302,633 | ||||
| Winnipeg | Balanced | –42.0 | –38.9 | 0.600 | 0.449–0.790 | –0.2 |
| –36.4 | –41.3 | –0.1 | ||||
| 1,116 | 756 | 235,198 | ||||
| Thunder Bay | Sellers’ | –36.7 | –72.0 | 1.501 | 0.496–0.738 | 1.2 |
| –45.0 | –77.3 | 1.3 | ||||
| 1,320 | 1,620 | 256,116 | ||||
| Sudbury | Sellers’ | –45.0 | –49.1 | 0.841 | 0.345–0.639 | –17.7 |
| –41.2 | –55.3 | –3.7 | ||||
| 28,164 | 55,452 | 789,274 | ||||
| Toronto | Balanced | –66.2 | –62.9 | 0.529 | 0.467–0.690 | –11.8 |
| –66.8 | –65.5 | 0.2 | ||||
| 4,560 | 7,668 | 593,573 | ||||
| Oshawa | Balanced | –58.4 | –59.1 | 0.599 | 0.481–0.746 | –7.7 |
| –52.1 | –55.1 | 1.0 | ||||
| 4,572 | 7,860 | 598,308 | ||||
| Hamilton | Balanced | –59.8 | –56.1 | 0.610 | 0.436–0.793 | –7.7 |
| –64.0 | –60.7 | 4.6 | ||||
| 972 | 2,280 | 454,793 | ||||
| St. Catharines | Balanced | –56.0 | –43.3 | 0.416 | 0.397–0.707 | –10.9 |
| –65.7 | –52.1 | –1.1 | ||||
| 3,180 | 5,328 | 550,621 | ||||
| Kitchener | Balanced | –60.1 | –54.6 | 0.640 | 0.484–0.760 | –2.3 |
| –59.4 | –55.8 | 9.4 | ||||
| 876 | 1,884 | 574,281 | ||||
| Guelph | Buyers’ | –71.4 | –56.6 | 0.472 | 0.507–0.835 | –5.2 |
| –70.3 | –59.8 | 8.1 | ||||
| 4,440 | 6,720 | 412,135 | ||||
| London | Balanced | –52.5 | –51.6 | 0.665 | 0.413–0.677 | –6.2 |
| –55.8 | –51.6 | 0.2 | ||||
| 3,228 | 4,788 | 332,086 | ||||
| Windsor | Balanced | –48.4 | –52.8 | 0.674 | 0.449–0.683 | –5.8 |
| –52.7 | –54.5 | 0.7 | ||||
| 804 | 2,580 | 416,839 | ||||
| Kingston | Buyers’ | –78.5 | –55.8 | 0.308 | 0.316–0.607 | –1.2 |
| –79.3 | –58.3 | 4.5 | ||||
| 8,340 | 10,668 | 454,231 | ||||
| Ottawa | Sellers’ | –51.5 | –47.2 | 0.799 | 0.407–0.697 | –9.6 |
| –55.1 | –57.7 | 5.2 | ||||
| 1,882 | 1,971 | 285,302 | ||||
| Gatineau | Sellers’ | –68.0 | –62.6 | 0.960 | 0.437–0.704 | –2.0 |
| –62.0 | –74.0 | 10.3 | ||||
| 16,606 | 17,943 | 421,436 | ||||
| Montréal | Sellers’ | –66.8 | –65.4 | 0.947 | 0.561–0.773 | –1.1 |
| –67.7 | –73.8 | 7.7 | ||||
| 3,638 | 4,138 | 270,987 | ||||
| Québec City | Sellers’ | –60.4 | –60.2 | 0.958 | 0.500–0.738 | –5.4 |
| –55.2 | –74.5 | –1.4 | ||||
| 886 | 650 | 289,995 | ||||
| Sherbrooke | Sellers’ | –56.0 | –70.8 | 1.339 | 0.444–0.708 | 8.1 |
| –51.9 | –76.5 | 16.2 | ||||
| 580 | 451 | 161,143 | ||||
| Trois-Rivières | Sellers’ | –58.7 | –63.6 | 1.153 | 0.480–0.755 | –8.2 |
| –63.2 | –79.5 | –8.6 | ||||
| 440 | 274 | 173,173 | ||||
| Saguenay | Sellers’ | –63.7 | –82.1 | 1.650 | 0.424–0.699 | –4.5 |
| –67.5 | –88.5 | –8.9 | ||||
| 1,464 | 1,428 | 169,772 | ||||
| Saint John | Sellers’ | –39.0 | –43.6 | 0.985 | 0.366–0.602 | –10.2 |
| –30.3 | –60.2 | –8.2 | ||||
| 1,524 | 1,668 | 204,432 | ||||
| Moncton | Sellers’ | –57.5 | –0.8 | 0.959 | 0.396–0.638 | –0.8 |
| –48.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | ||||
| 3,516 | 3,480 | 323,210 | ||||
| Halifax | Sellers’ | –50.3 | –53.8 | 0.958 | 0.426–0.785 | –5.8 |
| –49.7 | –60.0 | 4.1 | ||||
| 3,504 | 4,176 | 237,063 | ||||
| Newfoundland | Sellers’ | 13.6 | –47.0 | 0.767 | 0.343–0.577 | –0.3 |
| (province) | –19.1 | –63.5 | –2.2 | |||
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
About the Metro resale snapshot
The monthly Metro resale snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit signal49.ca for our latest insights. Signal49 Research reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.