Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: June 2020
Markets rebound in May, but activity remains weak
by Robin Wiebe
- Canadian housing markets bounced back from April’s low, but activity continues to be tepid. Market participants remain cautious as they navigate new COVID-19 protocols for listing, inspecting, and selling houses. Changes to federal policy, including recent sharp interest rate cuts, will help markets eventually improve, but uncertain job conditions pose a risk.
- Sales rose in 29 of our 30 markets in May. Only Newfoundland and Labrador saw volumes fall. Most month-to-month increases were large, but sales were still far behind their year-earlier levels in all 30 markets. Listings were also up in all markets, both from the previous month and from the prior year. Sales and listing volatility makes the current state of the market difficult to assess.
- Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal all saw big sales rebounds in May, but transactions remained well off their year-earlier levels and are historically soft.
- Vancouver, Calgary, and Montreal all saw listings rise faster than sales, but Toronto saw the reverse. This sharply cut the first three cities’ sales-to-listings ratios, but boosted Toronto’s.
- Prices edged higher in Toronto and Calgary last month. Vancouver’s value was little changed, and Montreal’s fell. Values nonetheless remained above year-earlier levels in all cities but Calgary.
Recent market performance
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*average month-to-month change during latest three months.
Forecast of near-term price growth (year-over-year)
| +7% | None | |
| 5–6.9% | Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Moncton, Halifax | |
| 3–4.9% | Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, St. Catharines, Saint John | |
| 0–2.9% | Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Québec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay | |
| Falling | Regina, Calgary, Edmonton, Newfoundland |
Resale indicators for June 2020
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | ||||||
| Market1 | Market classification |
Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Balanced market range3 |
Price ($) |
| Victoria | 4,056 | 8,928 | 693,420 | |||
| m/m % | Buyers’ | 52.9 | 67.2 | 0.469 | 0.482‚Äì0.762 | 0.5 |
| y/y % | -43.0 | -25.7 | 3.6 | |||
| 14,916 | 37,176 | 1,010,148 | ||||
| Vancouver | Buyers’ | 31.5 | 62.8 | 0.401 | 0.438‚Äì0.721 | 0.2 |
| -37.2 | -28.0 | 2.9 | ||||
| 7,620 | 19,632 | 732,062 | ||||
| Fraser Valley4 | Buyers’ | 20.5 | 65.6 | 0.410 | 0.446‚Äì0.716 | -2.6 |
| -40.2 | -30.0 | 4.9 | ||||
| 13,404 | 25,128 | 412,564 | ||||
| Calgary | Balanced | 68.7 | 91.6 | 0.544 | 0.466–0.728 | 1.1 |
| -38.6 | -33.9 | -6.4 | ||||
| 12,480 | 28,572 | 348,003 | ||||
| Edmonton | Balanced | 46.5 | 86.5 | 0.478 | 0.447–0.730 | -0.5 |
| -34.8 | -24.0 | -2.9 | ||||
| 2,832 | 5,412 | 287,055 | ||||
| Regina | Balanced | 77.4 | 81.9 | 0.537 | 0.491–0.757 | -1.9 |
| -2.5 | -18.6 | -6.5 | ||||
| 4,464 | 10,200 | 323,983 | ||||
| Saskatoon | Balanced | 73.8 | 75.3 | 0.447 | 0.425–0.681 | 1.0 |
| -7.7 | -10.7 | 3.6 | ||||
| 10,848 | 19,368 | 299,178 | ||||
| Winnipeg | Balanced | 45.6 | 52.6 | 0.575 | 0.449–0.789 | -1.0 |
| -16.2 | -13.0 | -1.1 | ||||
| 1,116 | 1,752 | 293,662 | ||||
| Thunder Bay | Balanced | 1.1 | 131.7 | 0.631 | 0.496–0.739 | 24.7 |
| -50.0 | -43.6 | 22.1 | ||||
| 1,884 | 2,448 | 287,226 | ||||
| Sudbury | Sellers’ | 44.0 | 53.4 | 0.819 | 0.345‚Äì0.640 | 12.1 |
| -21.5 | -32.2 | 8.2 | ||||
| 42,540 | 73,476 | 825,674 | ||||
| Toronto | Balanced | 53.0 | 35.8 | 0.580 | 0.468–0.690 | 4.6 |
| -51.8 | -52.9 | 2.9 | ||||
| 6,744 | 8,508 | 628,871 | ||||
| Oshawa | Sellers’ | 49.5 | 13.6 | 0.793 | 0.481‚Äì0.746 | 5.9 |
| -32.9 | -51.3 | 4.2 | ||||
| 8,052 | 9,900 | 630,768 | ||||
| Hamilton | Sellers’ | 69.4 | 26.0 | 0.857 | 0.436‚Äì0.793 | 6.0 |
| -38.4 | -48.7 | 10.2 | ||||
| 1,464 | 2,484 | 473,707 | ||||
| St. Catharines | Balanced | 45.2 | 10.7 | 0.622 | 0.398–0.707 | 3.6 |
| -40.8 | -45.1 | 1.2 | ||||
| 4,908 | 6,984 | 552,653 | ||||
| Kitchener | Balanced | 50.9 | 32.6 | 0.717 | 0.485–0.761 | 0.7 |
| -39.5 | -43.1 | 8.2 | ||||
| 1,920 | 2,532 | 594,260 | ||||
| Guelph | Balanced | 110.5 | 36.1 | 0.776 | 0.507–0.835 | 4.0 |
| -40.7 | -41.7 | 4.1 | ||||
| 6,000 | 8,316 | 433,317 | ||||
| London | Sellers’ | 36.6 | 26.0 | 0.724 | 0.414‚Äì0.678 | 5.1 |
| -37.0 | -38.6 | 7.9 | ||||
| 4,512 | 6,948 | 370,601 | ||||
| Windsor | Balanced | 40.3 | 47.0 | 0.667 | 0.449–0.683 | 11.6 |
| -33.5 | -29.3 | 15.8 | ||||
| 1,980 | 4,164 | 416,018 | ||||
| Kingston | Balanced | 146.3 | 61.4 | 0.503 | 0.315–0.607 | 0.1 |
| -45.7 | -30.0 | 9.1 | ||||
| 10,692 | 13,032 | 490,943 | ||||
| Ottawa | Sellers’ | 30.5 | 24.7 | 0.808 | 0.407‚Äì0.698 | 8.0 |
| -43.3 | -48.4 | 14.0 | ||||
| 3,380 | 5,181 | 277,550 | ||||
| Gatineau | Balanced | 80.4 | 164.8 | 0.660 | 0.438–0.705 | -2.5 |
| -36.7 | -29.2 | 4.0 | ||||
| 30,423 | 53,587 | 411,463 | ||||
| Montréal | Balanced | 86.1 | 203.2 | 0.580 | 0.567–0.777 | -2.0 |
| -39.7 | -21.2 | 5.6 | ||||
| 7,742 | 10,518 | 276,058 | ||||
| Qu√©bec City | Sellers’ | 114.8 | 161.5 | 0.745 | 0.501‚Äì0.739 | 1.8 |
| -6.2 | -28.5 | -1.3 | ||||
| 1,462 | 2,136 | 251,449 | ||||
| Sherbrooke | Balanced | 64.8 | 231.1 | 0.632 | 0.445–0.709 | -12.6 |
| -33.7 | -26.3 | -2.6 | ||||
| 1,002 | 1,393 | 201,327 | ||||
| Trois-Rivières | Balanced | 75.5 | 217.6 | 0.754 | 0.482–0.756 | 26.8 |
| -29.8 | -40.2 | 15.1 | ||||
| 1,115 | 1,762 | 178,581 | ||||
| Saguenay | Balanced | 155.5 | 552.5 | 0.616 | 0.423–0.700 | 2.5 |
| -15.4 | -19.7 | -3.0 | ||||
| 2,076 | 2,592 | 187,794 | ||||
| Saint John | Sellers’ | 41.8 | 78.5 | 0.819 | 0.366‚Äì0.603 | 10.9 |
| -12.2 | -35.7 | 3.4 | ||||
| 2,460 | 3,312 | 201,974 | ||||
| Moncton | Sellers’ | 62.7 | 93.0 | 0.720 | 0.397‚Äì0.638 | -1.2 |
| -36.1 | -29.8 | 7.4 | ||||
| 3,744 | 5,784 | 343,984 | ||||
| Halifax | Balanced | 2.6 | 65.6 | 0.646 | 0.426–0.786 | 5.1 |
| -45.5 | -34.5 | 9.0 | ||||
| 2,676 | 8,616 | 231,666 | ||||
| Newfoundland | Buyers’ | -18.0 | 99.4 | 0.302 | 0.344‚Äì0.577 | -2.1 |
| (province) | -43.3 | -23.6 | -1.5 | |||
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
About the Metro resale snapshot
The monthly Metro resale snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit signal49.ca for our latest insights. Signal49 Research reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.