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Metropolitan housing starts: August 20, 2020

Long-term expectations remain negative

by Jane McIntyre

  • There are six census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with positive short- and long-term expectations. That’s two more than last month.
  • Negative expectations still prevail for the long term.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decreases in housing starts in July were Abbotsford‚ÄìMission, Windsor, Kitchener‚ÄìWaterloo, Edmonton, and Greater Sudbury.
  • Saskatoon had the biggest year-over-year percentage increase in housing starts last month.

Expectations quadrant

  Long Term header
   
Short Term header
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Oshawa
  • Toronto
  • Regina
  • Edmonton

 
   
  • Moncton
  • Qu√©bec City
  • Windsor
  • Vancouver

 
   
 
     
  • St. John‚Äôs
  • Kingston
  • St. Catharines‚ÄìNiagara
  • Kitchener‚ÄìWaterloo
  • Winnipeg
  • Saskatoon
  • Calgary
   
  • Halifax
  • Saint John
  • Montr√©al
  • Saguenay
  • Trois-Rivi√®res
  • Sherbrooke
  • Ottawa‚ÄìGatineau
  • Hamilton
  • London
  • Victoria
  • Abbotsford‚ÄìMission

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC, Housing Market Information Portal.

Metropolitan housing starts

    Expectations
Year ago 6–Mon. MA 3–Mon. MA July 2020 Short term* Long term**
St. John’s 326 283 320 519 – +
Halifax 2,543 3,222 3,600 6,695 – –
Saint John 196 578 577 1,080 – –
Moncton 1,254 1,739 2,651 4,598 + –
Québec CMA 8,982 n.a.*** 9,876 6,728 + –
Montréal 24,940 n.a.*** 36,017 35,748 – –
Trois–Rivières 594 n.a.*** 1,195 904 – –
Saguenay 266 n.a.*** 679 854 – –
Sherbrooke 1,071 n.a.*** 2,425 1,322 – –
Ottawa–Gatineau 10,091 11,541 11,108 10,614 – –
Kingston 979 992 1,505 1,214 – +
Greater Sudbury 354 163 155 243 + +
Thunder Bay 164 752 280 155 + +
Oshawa 1,476 1,703 1,704 1,571 + +
Toronto 32,799 39,198 39,363 48,466 + +
Hamilton 1,395 3,365 3,603 6,900 – –
St. Catharines‚ÄìNiagara 1,269 2,398 2,916 3,061 ‚Äì +
Kitchener–Waterloo 5,145 3,534 3,733 2,214 – +
London 2,966 3,013 2,490 3,226 – –
Windsor 4,773 1,318 1,206 961 + –
Winnipeg 4,706 4,845 4,906 5,528 – +
Regina 265 638 576 908 + +
Saskatoon 720 2,233 3,315 6,776 – +
Calgary 8,134 8,335 7,315 8,793 – +
Edmonton 15,926 10,641 8,421 10,716 + +
Vancouver 31,799 21,644 24,286 24,395 + –
Victoria 3,655 3,713 3,195 4,161 – –
Abbotsford–Mission 2,919 907 520 479 – –

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
***CMHC did not collect data for Quebec in April, as the province’s residential construction industry was shut from March 25 to April 19 due to COVID-19
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

About the Metropolitan housing starts

The monthly Metropolitan housing starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 29 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties.

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Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.