Metropolitan Resale Snapshot: August 21, 2020
Crisis? What crisis?
by Robin Wiebe
- Canadian housing markets generally surged in July, shrugging off COVID-19 concerns and the recent tightening of mortgage qualification rules by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Markets are responding to ultra-low interest rates and recovering employment. Nonetheless, risks lurk, including the end of mortgage forbearance by chartered banks, high consumer debt, and a potential second COVID wave.
- Sales rose in 28 of our 30 markets in July and were up at least 5 per cent month-over-month in 26 of these. Such large gains pushed transactions above their year-earlier levels in 29 markets. Listings were up in 15 of our 30 markets, but this supply is not matching demand. Sales rose faster than listings in 25 of our 30 markets. Such tightening market conditions have sharply boosted price growth in many areas.
- Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal all saw big sales increases in July. Calgary’s gain was slightly more muted. This boosted transactions above their year-earlier levels in all four cities. Volumes in these areas are approaching multi-year highs.
- Sales rose faster than listings in each of Vancouver, Toronto, Montréal, and Calgary in July, although Calgary’s margin was small. This lifted the sales-to-listings ratio all four areas.
- Prices rose in all four of these cities last month. Gains in Toronto and Montréal were close to 6 per cent, Calgary’s gain was nearly 5 per cent, while Vancouver’s was less than 2 per cent. July’s values were well above year-earlier levels in all these cities.
Resale indicators for August 2020
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | ||||||
| Market1 | Market classification |
Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Balanced market range3 |
Price ($) |
| Victoria | 9,612 | 13,752 | 819,566 | |||
| m/m % | Balanced | 37.2 | 16.3 | 0.692 | 0.482–0.762 | 6.4 |
| y/y % | 36.0 | 18.8 | 25.1 | |||
| 34,464 | 60,240 | 1,057,273 | ||||
| Vancouver | Balanced | 43.9 | 7.1 | 0.543 | 0.437–0.721 | 1.5 |
| 24.9 | 20.9 | 7.4 | ||||
| 20,868 | 31,284 | 817,987 | ||||
| Fraser Valley4 | Balanced | 36.6 | 6.8 | 0.653 | 0.446–0.715 | 7.0 |
| 44.7 | 19.9 | 15.0 | ||||
| 24,588 | 45,984 | 470,046 | ||||
| Calgary | Balanced | 15.7 | 8.6 | 0.540 | 0.466–0.728 | 4.9 |
| 14.0 | 16.3 | 7.5 | ||||
| 21,768 | 39,888 | 371,288 | ||||
| Edmonton | Balanced | 9.7 | 1.2 | 0.533 | 0.447–0.729 | 4.4 |
| 13.7 | 9.9 | 2.2 | ||||
| 4,584 | 6,924 | 299,892 | ||||
| Regina | Balanced | 8.2 | 4.0 | 0.645 | 0.490–0.756 | –1.6 |
| 59.2 | 0.7 | 1.6 | ||||
| 6,972 | 12,348 | 333,321 | ||||
| Saskatoon | Balanced | 5.6 | 11.0 | 0.555 | 0.425–0.680 | 4.0 |
| 52.5 | 7.7 | 5.7 | ||||
| 15,168 | 21,036 | 323,512 | ||||
| Winnipeg | Balanced | 12.1 | –0.2 | 0.719 | 0.450–0.789 | 5.1 |
| 24.0 | –8.0 | 6.1 | ||||
| 2,292 | 2,256 | 256,112 | ||||
| Thunder Bay | Sellers’ | 0.5 | –16.4 | 1.021 | 0.495–0.742 | 3.3 |
| 0.0 | –33.6 | 11.7 | ||||
| 3,144 | 3,084 | 302,452 | ||||
| Sudbury | Sellers’ | 7.8 | –3.7 | 0.934 | 0.344–0.645 | 1.9 |
| 18.0 | –12.9 | 13.1 | ||||
| 117,048 | 180,324 | 958,713 | ||||
| Toronto | Balanced | 49.5 | 23.0 | 0.658 | 0.468–0.690 | 5.5 |
| 23.7 | 13.3 | 16.3 | ||||
| 15,552 | 17,064 | 710,211 | ||||
| Oshawa | Sellers’ | 41.9 | 9.9 | 0.938 | 0.480–0.747 | 6.5 |
| 45.1 | –6.3 | 17.4 | ||||
| 16,428 | 18,744 | 689,414 | ||||
| Hamilton | Sellers’ | 31.8 | 9.2 | 0.874 | 0.436–0.794 | 4.6 |
| 21.7 | –1.8 | 15.7 | ||||
| 3,900 | 3,972 | 583,904 | ||||
| St. Catharines | Sellers’ | 51.2 | –5.2 | 1.006 | 0.396–0.709 | –2.1 |
| 34.3 | –19.7 | 19.6 | ||||
| 10,248 | 11,256 | 631,415 | ||||
| Kitchener | Sellers’ | 25.0 | –0.8 | 0.936 | 0.485–0.763 | 7.0 |
| 23.9 | –8.3 | 21.8 | ||||
| 3,696 | 3,816 | 641,743 | ||||
| Guelph | Sellers’ | 17.6 | –4.2 | 0.955 | 0.507–0.836 | –2.6 |
| 16.7 | –18.9 | 15.7 | ||||
| 11,868 | 13,116 | 485,354 | ||||
| London | Sellers’ | 16.9 | –1.1 | 0.906 | 0.413–0.681 | 3.6 |
| 18.2 | –8.4 | 19.5 | ||||
| 7,176 | 8,736 | 400,732 | ||||
| Windsor | Sellers’ | 6.0 | –3.1 | 0.825 | 0.448–0.684 | 5.3 |
| 11.8 | –11.3 | 22.7 | ||||
| 5,292 | 5,748 | 447,080 | ||||
| Kingston | Sellers’ | 21.8 | –3.4 | 0.898 | 0.311–0.606 | –0.1 |
| 42.7 | –6.4 | 13.8 | ||||
| 21,732 | 24,780 | 529,676 | ||||
| Ottawa | Sellers’ | 28.7 | 17.3 | 0.881 | 0.408–0.701 | 3.4 |
| 12.9 | –4.9 | 19.5 | ||||
| 7,524 | 7,611 | 317,635 | ||||
| Gatineau | Sellers’ | 13.6 | –2.6 | 0.954 | 0.439–0.712 | 3.6 |
| 38.0 | 3.0 | 24.4 | ||||
| 75,283 | 87,645 | 459,343 | ||||
| Montréal | Sellers’ | 30.2 | –1.3 | 0.850 | 0.555–0.767 | 5.8 |
| 44.1 | 36.4 | 16.3 | ||||
| 12,782 | 12,604 | 297,082 | ||||
| Québec City | Sellers’ | 5.5 | –9.6 | 0.994 | 0.499–0.744 | 7.0 |
| 42.6 | –9.7 | 7.8 | ||||
| 3,493 | 2,891 | 314,639 | ||||
| Sherbrooke | Sellers’ | 45.9 | –7.9 | 1.112 | 0.443–0.716 | 9.4 |
| 62.7 | 15.2 | 30.5 | ||||
| 1,522 | 1,453 | 178,668 | ||||
| Trois-Rivières | Sellers’ | –24.6 | –24.1 | 1.061 | 0.480–0.765 | –4.6 |
| 3.9 | –21.5 | 0.0 | ||||
| 1,921 | 2,054 | 196,304 | ||||
| Saguenay | Sellers’ | –3.1 | –18.9 | 0.961 | 0.424–0.705 | –3.8 |
| 52.1 | –8.9 | 8.6 | ||||
| 2,412 | 3,204 | 202,297 | ||||
| Saint John | Sellers’ | 1.0 | 5.1 | 0.776 | 0.367–0.606 | 0.8 |
| 8.6 | –13.6 | 9.1 | ||||
| 4,344 | 5,256 | 212,592 | ||||
| Moncton | Sellers’ | 12.1 | 24.4 | 0.813 | 0.397–0.643 | 1.2 |
| 13.5 | 15.6 | 12.7 | ||||
| 7,140 | 9,048 | 359,420 | ||||
| Halifax | Sellers’ | 6.3 | 13.0 | 0.819 | 0.429–0.789 | 0.6 |
| 4.8 | –0.9 | 17.2 | ||||
| 4,908 | 10,620 | 242,075 | ||||
| Newfoundland | Balanced | 52.0 | 1.6 | 0.462 | 0.344–0.577 | 7.5 |
| (province) | 20.6 | –7.3 | –0.9 | |||
Forecast of near-term price growth (year-over-year)
| +7% | Victoria, Fraser Valley, Gatineau, Montréal, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières | |
| 5–6.9% | Vancouver, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Halifax, Ottawa, Québec City, Saguenay, Saint John, Moncton | |
| 3–4.9% | Saskatoon, Winnipeg | |
| 0–2.9% | Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Newfoundland | |
| Falling | None |
*average month-to-month change during latest three months.
Recent market performance
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About the Metro resale snapshot
The monthly Metro resale snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit signal49.ca for our latest insights. Signal49 Research reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.
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1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.