Metropolitan Housing Starts
Most CMAs Continue to Have Positive Short-Term Expectations
Key findings
- There are 11 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with positive short- and long-term expectations this month, the same number as last month. These are the CMAs in the up-up quadrant.
- Only two CMAs have negative short-term expectations. Vancouver is the only one with both negative short- and long-term expectations.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in April housing starts were Toronto, Victoria, Saskatoon, Regina, and Edmonton.
- Last year’s data reflect the start of the pandemic for some regions, and the beginning of restrictions on construction. Some CMAs’ year-ago numbers are not reflective of usual monthly levels.
Expectations quadrant
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the up-up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the down-down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Only two CMAs have negative short-term expectations: Thunder Bay and Vancouver.
Metropolitan Housing Starts
| Expectations | ||||||||
| Year ago | 6 mon. MA | 3 mon. MA | Mar. 2021 | Short-term* | Long-term** | |||
| St. John’s | 210 | 641 | 703 | 888 | + | + | ||
| Halifax | 1,426 | 3,686 | 2,432 | 1,561 | + | – | ||
| Saint John | 218 | 583 | 561 | 1,057 | + | – | ||
| Moncton | 1,307 | 1,759 | 820 | 1,722 | + | – | ||
| Québec CMA*** | 0 | 7,068 | 6,054 | 7,301 | + | – | ||
| Montréal*** | 0 | 36,288 | 36,708 | 39,596 | + | – | ||
| Trois-Rivières*** | 0 | 803 | 895 | 861 | + | – | ||
| Saguenay*** | 0 | 812 | 489 | 698 | + | – | ||
| Sherbrooke*** | 0 | 2,622 | 3,460 | 2,847 | + | – | ||
| Ottawa–Gatineau | 10,335 | 14,757 | 15,769 | 19,688 | + | – | ||
| Kingston | 507 | 1,304 | 1,465 | 696 | + | + | ||
| Greater Sudbury | 315 | 1,231 | 2,087 | 1,063 | + | + | ||
| Thunder Bay | 8 | 421 | 720 | 901 | – | + | ||
| Oshawa | 1,221 | 3,456 | 4,572 | 3,541 | + | – | ||
| Toronto | 60,867 | 37,440 | 40,734 | 33,951 | + | + | ||
| Hamilton | 907 | 4,153 | 5,237 | 6,079 | + | + | ||
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 1,433 | 2,635 | 2,805 | 2,561 | + | – | ||
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 1,098 | 5,435 | 5,462 | 10,756 | + | + | ||
| London | 3,474 | 7,333 | 7,289 | 9,088 | + | – | ||
| Windsor | 764 | 1,666 | 1,307 | 2,158 | + | – | ||
| Winnipeg | 5,650 | 5,623 | 4,569 | 4,399 | + | + | ||
| Regina | 1,035 | 1,076 | 1,098 | 797 | + | + | ||
| Saskatoon | 1,225 | 2,925 | 3,504 | 4,119 | + | + | ||
| Calgary | 6,773 | 12,199 | 12,598 | 15,006 | + | + | ||
| Edmonton | 14,406 | 12,851 | 12,441 | 14,417 | + | + | ||
| Vancouver | 15,114 | 28,199 | 30,674 | 19,223 | – | – | ||
| Victoria | 5,564 | 3,903 | 4,509 | 4,232 | + | – | ||
Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rates.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
***CMHC did not collect data for Quebec for this time last year, as the province’s residential construction industry was shut from March 25 to April 19 due to COVID-19
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.