Metropolitan Housing Starts
Current Starts Borrow From Future Demand
Key Findings
- There are only six census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with positive short- and long-term expectations this month, nearly half the level of last month. These are the CMAs in the up-up quadrant.
- More CMAs have negative long-term expectations as we expect starts to slip from their strong 2020–21 levels.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in May housing starts were Kingston, Trois-Rivières, Victoria, Montréal, and Québec City.
- Greater Sudbury had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts last month, though it’s important to note that smaller CMAs tend to have larger swings in growth given their smaller levels.
Expectations quadrant
*While residential permit data from the past six months suggest that starts will rise in Abbotsford–Mission in the short term, recent flooding in the area may make this impossible.
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the up–up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the down–down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
More CMAs have negative long-term expectations this month, as starts will likely slip from 2020–21 levels.
Metropolitan Housing Starts
| Expectations | ||||||||
| Year ago | 6 mon. MA | 3 mon. MA | May 2021 | Short-term* | Long-term** | |||
| St. John’s | 124 | 664 | 832 | 874 | – | – | ||
| Halifax | 2,661 | 3,793 | 3,685 | 6,813 | + | – | ||
| Saint John | 180 | 455 | 545 | 348 | + | + | ||
| Moncton | 2,031 | 1,975 | 1,900 | 3,642 | + | – | ||
| Québec CMA | 11,547 | 8,109 | 8,626 | 11,499 | + | – | ||
| Montréal | 32,879 | 34,867 | 32,685 | 27,952 | + | – | ||
| Trois-Rivières | 1,683 | 816 | 1,001 | 869 | + | – | ||
| Saguenay | 684 | 839 | 642 | 735 | + | – | ||
| Sherbrooke | 1,828 | 2,766 | 3,099 | 2,429 | + | – | ||
| Ottawa–Gatineau | 11,835 | 15,153 | 18,519 | 20,200 | + | – | ||
| Kingston | 2,528 | 1,209 | 1,476 | 645 | – | + | ||
| Greater Sudbury | 48 | 1,229 | 2,152 | 650 | + | – | ||
| Thunder Bay | 342 | 387 | 700 | 382 | – | – | ||
| Oshawa | 1,936 | 4,607 | 6,311 | 9,692 | + | – | ||
| Toronto | 29,594 | 36,784 | 42,706 | 30,965 | + | – | ||
| Hamilton | 1,231 | 4,473 | 4,045 | 4,041 | + | + | ||
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 1,253 | 2,836 | 3,264 | 3,440 | + | – | ||
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 1,623 | 6,178 | 7,254 | 6,545 | + | – | ||
| London | 1,603 | 5,839 | 6,231 | 6,345 | + | – | ||
| Windsor | 832 | 1,656 | 1,896 | 2,707 | – | – | ||
| Winnipeg | 2,828 | 5,196 | 4,549 | 5,743 | + | – | ||
| Regina | 552 | 983 | 962 | 799 | + | + | ||
| Saskatoon | 1,239 | 3,404 | 4,354 | 4,498 | + | + | ||
| Calgary | 8,477 | 13,411 | 15,804 | 18,366 | + | + | ||
| Edmonton | 7,623 | 12,939 | 12,329 | 12,544 | + | + | ||
| Vancouver | 24,940 | 27,742 | 31,562 | 30,601 | – | – | ||
| Victoria | 3,060 | 3,807 | 4,571 | 2,247 | + | – | ||
| Abbotsford–Mission | 496 | 931 | 688 | 612 | – | – | ||
Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties.
The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit signal49.ca for our latest insights. Signal49 Research reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.
About the Metropolitan housing starts
The monthly Metropolitan housing starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.