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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot

Embryonic Signs of a Cooling Canadian Resale Market?

April 27, 2022

Key Findings

  • National sales of existing homes fell just over 5 per cent in March, the largest drop in nine months, but were still the second-highest volume on record for the month, behind only March 2021. The national market remained tight, as listings fell at a similar pace. But Canada’s average resale price fell 1.5 per cent in March, the first monthly decline since July 2021. Rising interest rates and recent rapid increases in house prices are tempering homebuyer interest. This points to fewer bidding wars and a more balanced market ahead.
  • Declines in both listings and sales were widespread. Sales fell in 19 of our 30 markets during March, including 13 where the monthly decline exceeded 5 per cent. Sales were below year-earlier levels in 26 areas. Listings were down from February in 17 markets and trailed year-earlier volumes in 25. Many markets slackened modestly in March as the sales-to-listing ratio fell in 17 areas. Still, the number of markets in sellers’ territory rose to 24, up from 23 in February. Rapid price hikes are still common, although only 14 markets saw year-over-year price growth of at least 20 per cent. That was down from 16 in February.
  • Sales fell in Montréal, Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver during March. Calgary and Toronto saw double-digit declines; the declines in Vancouver and Montréal were both below 3 per cent. Despite the decline, Calgary sales remain high—nearly twice their 10-year average—but volumes in the other three markets significantly trail year-earlier levels.
  • March listings were down sharply in Vancouver and Calgary but more modestly in Toronto. Listings were higher in Montréal. The declines were 18 per cent in Vancouver and 11 per cent in Calgary, but only 4 per cent in Toronto. Montréal’s gain was 6 per cent. Calgary’s listings hovered well above year-earlier levels, but listings in the other three cities were lower. Montréal and Calgary continue to face sellers’ conditions, while the Vancouver and Toronto markets are balanced.
  • The average resale price fell more than 3 per cent in Calgary during March. Declines were 2 per cent in Vancouver and 1 per cent in Toronto. Montréal’s price rose just under 1 per cent. Year-over-year price growth continues in all four cities, with Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal enjoying double-digit gains. Annual advances in March ranged from about 7 per cent in Calgary to over 18 per cent in Toronto.
See available data

Recent Market Performance

Sales
Falling		 Sales
Rising
Price
Rising
  • Newfoundland
  • Halifax
  • Oshawa
  • Thunder Bay
  • Toronto
  • Victoria
  • Winnipeg
  • Fraser Valley
  • Quebec
  • Gatineau
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Saguenay
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener
  • Guelph
  • London
  • Ottawa
  • Saint John
  • St. Catharines
  • Sudbury
  • Vancouver
  • Windsor
  • Kingston
  • Montréal
  • Sherbrooke
  • Moncton
Price
Falling
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon

Note: Sales and prices are the average month-to-month change during latest three months.

Forecast of Near-Term Price Growth

(year-over-year)

7% +

Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Québec, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax, Newfoundland

5–6.9%

Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon

3–4.9%

—

0–2.9%

—

Falling

—

National sales of existing homes fell just over 5 per cent in March, the largest drop in nine months.

Resale Indicators for March 2023

Market1 Market classification Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Balanced market range3		 Price ($)
Victoria Sellers’ 8,088 9,648 0.781 0.487–0.775 1,052,620
m/m %   –12.4 –17.3     0.3
y/y %   –29.1 –14.8     19.8
Vancouver Balanced 43,176 59,412 0.657 0.439–0.720 1,297,659
    –1.3 –18.3     –1.8
    –28.8 –20.6     11.5
Fraser Valley4 Balanced 23,796 35,664 0.651 0.442–0.720 1,164,312
    5.6 –19.7     –7.7
    –25.7 –18.7     19
Calgary Sellers’ 52,212 67,488 0.793 0.464–0.736 541,147
    –12.8 –10.9     –3.4
    35.9 23.5     7.3
Edmonton Sellers’ 38,544 43,968 0.852 0.451–0.731 423,780
    0.1 –4.1     –0.6
    31 0.9     5.5
Regina Sellers’ 4,356 6,216 0.782 0.491–0.752 325,110
    –7.6 –4.4     3.7
    –11.0 –26.1     0.3
Saskatoon Sellers’ 7,584 9,912 0.732 0.427–0.680 355,990
    13.1 –11.4     –1.0
    –13.7 –21.6     3
Winnipeg Sellers’ 15,516 17,664 0.86 0.451–0.796 388,364
    2 3.1     0.3
    –26.0 –21.2     12.9
Thunder Bay Sellers’ 2,376 2,808 0.888 0.499–0.768 354,194
    –11.6 4.5     3.2
    –18.9 –15.8     24.5
Sudbury Sellers’ 3,672 4,380 0.88 0.346–0.673 490,764
    –5.3 –5.2     –5.9
    –18.8 –21.8     28.4
Toronto Balanced 103,056 178,416 0.581 0.467–0.693 1,286,136
    –18.6 –3.6     –1.0
    –32.4 –14.5     18.5
Oshawa Balanced 13,008 18,744 0.733 0.481–0.756 1,109,851
    –8.1 –0.8     –7.1
    –36.3 –15.4     27.4
Hamilton Balanced 16,464 22,416 0.727 0.439–0.804 1,051,498
    –3.4 –1.6     –0.3
    –23.6 –8.3     22.8
St. Catharines Sellers’ 4,116 6,216 0.737 0.399–0.724 874,752
    –5.5 7     –3.9
    –19.1 –8.0     25.7
Kitchener Sellers’ 10,680 14,280 0.798 0.486–0.772 943,366
    –6.9 –0.4     –5.3
    –29.2 –21.6     26.5
Guelph Balanced 4,152 5,364 0.789 0.510–0.842 1,004,605
    –0.3 8.5     0.4
    –22.9 –7.5     28.3
London Sellers’ 12,060 15,960 0.769 0.419–0.721 788,806
    –5.5 5.6     0.7
    –14.8 3.1     29
Windsor Sellers’ 9,504 12,444 0.773 0.440–0.693 680,105
    –4.8 2.4     0.9
    2.1 13.1     35.3
Kingston Sellers’ 4,068 4,848 0.849 0.362–0.673 693,679
    –6.6 0     –0.7
    –33.8 –32.0     23.9
Ottawa Sellers’ 22,584 26,388 0.819 0.415–0.720 719,858
    –2.3 –4.1     –0.1
    –14.2 –6.3     11.4
Gatineau Sellers’ 6,004 7,285 0.78 0.445–0.761 478,651
    2.1 10.6     –1.1
    –12.3 2.2     26
Montréal Sellers’ 51,187 67,654 0.785 0.481–0.734 605,280
    –2.6 5.9     0.8
    –11.6 –8.6     14.1
Québec City Sellers’ 9,765 12,410 0.841 0.500–0.786 353,693
    –7.3 8.6     0.2
    –15.2 –17.2     10.4
Sherbrooke Sellers’ 2,240 2,741 0.843 0.447–0.781 409,823
    11.3 6.9     2.1
    –17.1 –12.8     12.8
Trois–Rivières Sellers’ 1,442 1,602 0.92 0.476–0.820 286,870
    0.5 3.5     –0.1
    –15.6 –19.5     29.7
Saguenay Sellers’ 1,640 1,680 0.99 0.427–0.762 260,863
    1.4 –1.7     9.2
    –9.4 –22.9     16
Saint John Sellers’ 3,240 3,144 0.924 0.353–0.660 306,419
    40.6 –8.1     2.4
    6.3 –18.1     15.7
Moncton Sellers’ 4,308 4,776 0.916 0.381–0.685 352,137
    14.3 1.5     1.7
    –21.4 –16.0     40.2
Halifax Sellers’ 6,708 7,104 0.868 0.443–0.863 570,749
    14.8 –1.3     –3.3
    –30.4 –24.0     24.6
Newfoundland and Labrador Sellers’ 6,720 9,852 0.686 0.345–0.591 281,715
(province)   –9.1 –8.6     2.3
    –2.4 –15.4     8.8

1   For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2   Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3   Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4   Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.