Guarding Health, Driving Productivity
The Economic Value of Shingles Vaccination
March 4, 2026
Coming work from Signal49 Research on the value of adult vaccination for shingles addresses how healthy aging, vaccination, productivity, system change, and broader definitions of value interact to support Canadians in living healthier and more productive lives.
A healthy aging imperative
Healthy aging delivers broad societal value by improving healthspan (the proportion of lifespan spent healthy)1 and enabling older adults to contribute measurable economic benefits through employment, caregiving, volunteering, and community engagement.2 (See Exhibit 1.)
Many countries, and parts of Canada, have implemented healthy aging strategies, although there is no Canadian national strategy.3
Exhibit 1
Healthy aging and productivity cycle
Source: Signal49 Research.
Adult vaccines and healthy aging
Vaccines are essential to this healthy aging imperative, enabling work, caregiving, and volunteering.
They achieve this by preventing older adults from developing serious health complications that can result from infections they are at higher risk for, such as herpes zoster, pneumonia, and influenza.
Preventive measures, including vaccination, have been shown to be effective in reducing the negative outcomes of these infections.4
Shingles in Canada
Shingles affects one in three Canadian adults and leads to substantial health and economic impacts.
Up to 30 per cent of cases result in postherpetic neuralgia, which leads to worse outcomes and more work absences.5 (See Exhibit 2.)
Exhibit 2
The impact of shingles in Canada
*Public Health Agency of Canada, “Herpes zoster (shingles) vaccine.”
† Drolet and others, “Employment related productivity loss associated with herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia: A 6-month prospective study,” Vaccine 30, no.12 (2012): 2047-50.
Source: Signal49 Research.
As of late 2025, there is no national shingles immunization program, and the few provinces/territories with programs have highly variable coverage.6
Return on investment (ROI)
Recent modelling of returns by Evaluate Consulting (see Exhibit 3) from a societal perspective estimated that vaccinating 80 per cent of Canadian adults aged 50+ against shingles would provide an ROI of 1.69.7
Exhibit 3
Modelling the ROI of shingles vaccination in Canada
Sources: GSK Data on file, “The Economic Impact of Shingles Vaccination for Older People in Canada and its Provinces,” (unpublished manuscript, 2025),
GSK study number 2025N569260_00; Signal49 Research.
This means for every dollar spent on vaccination, there is a corresponding benefit of $1.69 through health and productivity benefits.
This is similar to workplace mental health programs (1.62)8 and exceeds public cardiovascular research investments (1.21).9
The returns estimated for shingles vaccination investment accrue to the healthcare system and broader society through better health and improved productivity.
In addition, $306 million in increased tax revenue is estimated as a result of improved productivity. This ROI is consistent, with slight variations, across Canada. (See Exhibit 4.)
Exhibit 4
Annual returns across Canada
Sources: GSK Data on File, “The Economic Impact of Shingles Vaccination for Older People in Canada and its Provinces,” (unpublished manuscript, 2025),
GSK study number 2025N569260_00.; Signal49 Research.
Systemic change
Prior work by KPMG for GSK identified five potential system components that would need to advance to support better vaccine outcomes.10 (See Exhibit 5.)
Exhibit 5
Components of system change for vaccination effectiveness
Source: Signal49 Research.
Without changes to the public health system, realizing the potential ROI will be a challenge.
Adding value
Our coming report will update and connect these concepts, framing them around value-creation for different parts of society,11 to showcase the integrated value of adult vaccination. (See Exhibit 6.)
Enhancing patient quality of life: Improving health outcomes enables older Canadians to work, socialize, and manage daily tasks more effectively.
Empowering healthcare professionals: Providing tools to deliver efficient preventive care strengthens their patients’ health, reduces future health burdens, and increases resiliency.
Driving health system efficiency: Optimizing care delivery frees up resources and improves sustainability, better supporting an aging population.
Unlocking societal contributions: Healthier older Canadians continue to work, volunteer, and provide care for loved ones, amplifying their positive impact on their communities and the economy.
Exhibit 6
Components of system change for vaccination effectiveness
Source: Signal49 Research.
Learn more about our work across healthy aging by reaching out to Eddy Nason, Director, Health, at [email protected].
See more of our health research on our Health Knowledge Area page.
- Siti Masfiah and others, “Definitions of healthspan: A systematic review,” Ageing research reviews, vol. 111 (2025): 102806.
- Jean-Pierre Michel and Ritu Sadana, “‘Healthy Aging’ Concepts and Measures,” Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, vol. 18, no. 6 (2017): 460–464.
- Vaccines 4 Life, “Shingles Atlas for Adult Vaccination (SAAV),” https://www.vaccines4life.com/ifa-interactive-world-map/.
- Hania El Banhawi and others, Socio-Economic Value of Adult Immunisation Programmes, (London, England: Contract research report, Office of Health Economics, 2024).
- Public Health Agency of Canada, “Herpes zoster (shingles) vaccine: Canadian Immunization Guide,” in Canadian Immunization Guide: Part 4. Immunizing agents (Ottawa: Government of Canada, updated 2025), https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/healthy-living/canadian-immunization-guide-part-4-active-vaccines/page-8-herpes-zoster-(shingles)-vaccine.html.
- Public Health Agency of Canada, “Provincial and territorial routine vaccination programs for healthy, previously immunized adults,” Government of Canada, last modified September 2025, https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/immunization-vaccines/routine-vaccination-healthy-previously-immunized-adult.html#a2.
- GSK Data on file, “The Economic Impact of Shingles Vaccination for Older People in Canada and its Provinces,” (unpublished manuscript, 2025), GSK study number 2025N569260_00.
- Ariel Kangasniemi, Laura Maxwell, and Marie Sereneo, The ROI in workplace mental health programs: Good for people, good for business, (N.P.: Deloitte Insights, 2019), https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/talent/workplace-mental-health-programs-worker-productivity.html.
- Claire de Oliveira and others, “Estimating the payoffs from cardiovascular disease research in Canada: an economic analysis.” CMAJ open, vol 1, issue 2 (2013): E83-90.
- GSK, “Ensuring equitable access to adult vaccines across Canada,” GSK position paper, 2023, https://ca.gsk.com/media/lspbb0ad/adult-vaccines-access-report.pdf.
- NEJM Catalyst, “What Is Value-Based Healthcare?” NEJM Catalyst, January 2017, https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.17.0558.