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Higher Education Trend Report

Enrolment Outlook

March 5, 2026

Key findings

  • In 2023–24, Canadian post-secondary education (PSE) saw a total enrolment of 2.34 million (+5.8 per cent from 2022–23), driven almost entirely by a 12.3 per cent college enrolment surge. International college enrolment grew by 40.1 per cent in 2023–24, reaching 288,800 students and surpassing university enrolment for the first time.
  • Business, management, and public administration remained the largest field of study in 2023–24, followed by social sciences and law. The fastest enrolment growth occurred in math, computer, and information sciences (+23.9 per cent at colleges; +8.5 per cent at universities), while enrolment growth in healthcare, engineering, and skilled trades remained below average, despite acute labour shortages.
  • International students accounted for 24.5 per cent of total PSE enrolment in 2023–24, with the highest concentrations in business, management, and public administration and in math and computer science, particularly at colleges.
  • Heavy concentration in short-cycle programs and reliance on international business diplomas and certificates leave colleges uniquely exposed to changes in study permit and post-graduation work permit (PGWP) policy.
  • Ontario, British Columbia, and most Atlantic provinces combine high international enrolment shares with heavy reliance on international tuition, leaving them particularly vulnerable to fiscal shocks as international student volumes fall.
  • We forecast that PSE enrolment will decline to 1.98 million by 2030 as a result of federal government policy changes affecting international students.
  • College enrolment is estimated to fall by 22.4 per cent in 2024–25, with Ontario colleges facing declines exceeding 30 per cent.
  • International enrolment is estimated to decline by 27.7 per cent in 2024–25, followed by gradual stabilization later in the decade. Colleges will bear the brunt of the adjustment, with international enrolment projected to fall roughly by half over the next five years.

Overview

From expansion to recalibration

After more than a decade of expansion driven largely by public policy enabling international student growth, Canada’s post-secondary education (PSE) system is entering a phase of regulatory recalibration and declining enrolment. Federal policy changes, coupled with declining domestic demographic trends, have fundamentally altered the operating environment for post-secondary institutions (PSIs).1 As a result, we expect post-secondary enrolment to decline from a record high of 2.34 million in the 2023–24 school year to 1.98 million in 2029–30, a 15.4 per cent decline.

For post-secondary leaders, the implication is clear: the pre-2024 model, which used international enrolment growth to offset constrained public funding and rising costs, is no longer tenable.

This transition does not signal a collapse in the fundamental demand for PSE, but it has created a need for PSIs to rethink their business models. Institutions now face greater exposure to policy risk, uneven regional impacts, and intensifying competition for both students and revenue. Strategic planning over the remainder of the decade will therefore depend less on growth and more on risk management, program alignment, and financial resilience.

The 2023–24 surge: a final peak before the dip

The 2023–24 academic year marked a cyclical peak for PSE enrolment. Total enrolment in public colleges and universities rose 5.8 per cent to 2.34 million students, the strongest year-over-year growth since the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, this rebound was highly uneven across sectors. Universities recorded modest growth of 2.1 per cent, consistent with longer-term trends of gradual increases. In contrast, colleges experienced a 12.3 per cent enrolment increase, their fastest growth rate in a decade. The timing and composition of this surge largely reflected a rebound in international enrolment following pandemic-era travel and processing constraints, along with aggressive international recruitment, rather than a structural strengthening of the college market.

Domestic enrolment has been on a downward trajectory for a decade, aside from a brief uptick in 2020–21. The drop has been particularly pronounced for colleges, where domestic enrolment has fallen by 11.3 per cent over the past 10 years. Several forces appear to be driving this pattern: demographic aging and smaller youth cohorts, rising opportunity costs of full-time study, and growing uncertainty about the returns to PSE.

We expect a sustained downturn for the remainder of the decade, beginning with the 2024–25 school year, driven primarily by federal interventions designed to moderate international student volumes.2

  • Colleges: Enrolment is estimated to have dropped by 22.4 per cent in the 2024–25 academic year and will shrink further through 2030. The cumulative loss in college enrolment is projected to reach 29.4 per cent over the next five years as federal caps and changes to post-graduation work permit (PGWP) eligibility take hold.
  • Universities: The enrolment outlook is less severe, but still negative over the medium term. A small increase is expected in 2024–25, followed by gradual contraction through 2030, resulting in an estimated cumulative decline of 6.5 per cent. Universities’ broader program mix, stronger domestic pipelines, and higher share of degree-level enrolment provide partial insulation from the policy impact, but do not eliminate downward pressure.

The geographic distribution of these declines is highly uneven. Ontario and Quebec are projected to experience the largest absolute and relative enrolment losses, reflecting institutional models that relied heavily on international student demand.

Disciplinary shift: digital growth versus the skills gap

In 2023–24, business, management, and public administration remained the largest field of study by enrolment, followed by social sciences and law. These fields benefit from broad applicability, relatively low delivery costs, and strong international demand, which has reinforced their dominance over time.

The fastest growth, however, occurred in math, computer, and information sciences, reflecting global shifts toward artificial intelligence, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and data analytics. Between 2022–23 and 2023–24, college enrolment in these fields increased by 23.8 per cent, while university enrolment rose by 8.5 per cent. This divergence suggests that students, particularly international students, are responding quickly to perceived labour-market returns and short-term employability signals. Colleges, with shorter program durations and applied curricula, have captured a disproportionate share of this growth.

At the same time, enrolment growth in healthcare, engineering, and skilled trades remained below the average among all fields of study, despite strong and well-documented labour shortages.4 This mismatch partly reflects structural constraints in PSE. Capacity limits, clinical placement bottlenecks, and capital intensity restrict how quickly institutions can scale these programs, even when labour-market signals are strong. As a result, program offerings continue to favour lower-cost, more scalable disciplines over those most critical to long-term workforce needs.

Youth participation rate in PSE is high

Participation in post-secondary education among youth aged 18–24 remains high by international standards, but varies considerably across regions. Quebec and Ontario lead participation rates, with Quebec’s elevated level reflecting the structure of the CEGEP system, which channels a large share of youth into publicly funded post-secondary pathways earlier.5

In contrast, participation rates in the Prairies lag the national average. These differences are shaped by a combination of labour-market conditions and the availability of well-paid employment opportunities that do not require immediate post-secondary credentials. In regions with stronger resource or trades-based labour markets, well-paid job opportunities draw people into work rather than PSE, dampening participation even when institutional capacity exists.

These regional patterns matter for enrolment outlooks because they constrain the scope for domestic demand growth. Provinces with already high participation rates have limited headroom for further expansion, while regions with lower participation face structural and economic barriers that are not easily addressed through institutional recruitment strategies alone.

Canadian PSE is skewed toward college, less focused on graduate programs

In the international context, Canada’s post-secondary system stands out for its high reliance on short-cycle tertiary education (ISCED 5), corresponding to college diplomas and certificates. This structure has supported strong responsiveness to labour-market demand and contributed to Canada’s high overall attainment rates.

However, Canada underperforms relative to other high-income countries at the master’s level (ISCED 7). Both the share of enrolment and the growth rate between 2022–23 and 2023–24 lag peer averages. This imbalance leaves the education system more exposed to shocks from changes to international student policy, as short-cycle programs are more sensitive to visa rules and work-permit eligibility, while advanced degree programs tend to exhibit more stable enrolment patterns, particularly research-oriented master’s and doctoral degrees that are tied to faculty research activity and public R&D funding.

From a strategic perspective, this comparison highlights a key vulnerability. As regulatory conditions tighten, institutions with concentrated exposure to short-cycle, internationally driven enrolment face sharper adjustment pressures than those with stronger graduate and research-oriented profiles.

University enrolment

A more modest decline

University enrolment reached 1.44 million students in 2023–24, marking a 2.1 per cent increase from the previous academic year. That growth was driven almost entirely by international students, whose enrolment rose by 8.1 per cent, while domestic enrolment increased by just 0.8 per cent. This divergence highlights a central feature of the university enrolment model in Canada: domestic demand has largely plateaued, and marginal growth has depended on international recruitment.

Compared with the sharp adjustment now facing colleges, the expected decline in university enrolment will be much more modest. Enrolment will decline by 9.6 per cent through 2030, compared with a drop of 29.4 per cent at colleges over the same period. Declining youth cohorts in several provinces, slower international growth, and limits on classroom space, housing, and faculty capacity will converge to drive this decline.6

Regional patterns differ markedly. Quebec and Nova Scotia are projected to experience the sharpest declines in university enrolment. In Quebec, demographic headwinds combined with already-high participation rates leave university enrolment exposed to downward risk. Nova Scotia’s exposure reflects its outsized reliance on non-resident and international students relative to its population size. By contrast, Prairie provinces are expected to see only mild impacts, supported by more stable demographics, lower baseline participation rates, and labour markets that continue to pull students into university-level credentials over time.

For university leaders, the expected enrolment decline in many regions implies that future planning will be less about volume expansion and more about program mix and financial sustainability within fixed capacity envelopes.

Enrolment by education level: graduate growth as a strategic lever

University enrolment remains highly concentrated at the bachelor’s and master’s levels, which together account for 94 per cent of total enrolment. Bachelor’s programs continue to function as the anchor of the system, providing scale and tuition stability.

Within this structure, the most notable shift has occurred at the master’s level. Between 2019 and 2024, master’s enrolment increased its share of total university enrolment from 15.0 per cent to 17.1 per cent. This growth reflects both labour-market demand for advanced credentials and institutional strategies to diversify revenue and strengthen research intensity.

From a system perspective, graduate programs, particularly at the master’s and PhD levels, play a disproportionate role in generating research output, supporting innovation ecosystems, and attracting federal research and development funding. For university leaders, this creates a strategic incentive to expand graduate capacity where feasible. Doing so can partially hedge against volatility in undergraduate international markets while reinforcing the academic mission that underpins public and research funding.

Social sciences and business, management, and public administration remain the largest fields of study, reflecting their broad applicability and relatively low barriers to scale. However, these fields have contributed little to recent growth.

The strongest gains occurred in math, computer, and information sciences, where university enrolment increased by 8.5 per cent in 2023–24. This growth aligns with persistent labour-market demand in digital and data-intensive occupations, and signals continued student responsiveness to perceived employment returns. Engineering and trades programs also recorded growth (+2.3 per cent), though at a more moderate pace.

In contrast, social sciences have stagnated since the pandemic, and humanities enrolment has been under pressure for more than a decade. These declines are structural rather than cyclical, driven by shifting student preferences and labour-market signalling.

Health-related enrolment presents a more complex picture. Alberta, Quebec, and Ontario have seen stagnation in health enrolment since the pandemic. By contrast, Atlantic provinces have experienced surging health enrolment. Atlantic provinces face the oldest population profiles in Canada and the highest per-capita health-care demand.7 This acute demographic pressure forced rapid policy action. For example, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland and Labrador explicitly linked enrolment growth to workforce planning, funding new nursing and allied health seats that are tied to return-of-service agreements.8

Overall, the university enrolment outlook is defined by constraints. Growth remains possible, but only at the margins and increasingly through strategic choices around graduate expansion, disciplinary focus, and regional positioning.

College enrolment

Volatility, exposure, and a policy-driven plunge

The Canadian college sector, including CEGEPs and polytechnics, is currently the most volatile segment of the higher education system. After absorbing a disproportionate share of post-pandemic enrolment growth, colleges are entering a sharp correction phase. In 2023–24, college enrolment increased by 12.3 per cent, the fastest annual growth since 1992. However, this growth reflected surging international student arrivals, rather than a fundamental expansion in domestic participation.

We expect a steep downward trajectory through 2030, with the most severe adjustment beginning in the 2024–25 academic year, when policy changes first took effect. Total college enrolment is estimated to have fallen by 28.9 per cent in 2024–25. This is not a cyclical downturn; it is a policy-induced correction.

Two federal interventions explain the magnitude and speed of the decline:

  • the 2024–25 study permit cap, which disproportionately affected colleges because of their higher reliance on international students;
  • changes to post-graduation work permit (PGWP) eligibility, which removed or restricted eligibility for many college diploma and certificate programs, especially in general business fields.

For a large share of international students, PGWP access was the primary value proposition of college diplomas.9 Since PGWP eligibility was narrowed in 2024, enrolment demand is projected to fall in the first affected intake cycle.

The regional impact is highly uneven. Ontario colleges are projected to be the most exposed, with enrolment expected to decline by 31.3 per cent in 2024–25. Ontario institutions had the highest concentration of international students, the greatest reliance on business diplomas, and the largest absolute expansion during the surge years.

The risk of short-cycle concentration

Colleges are overwhelmingly concentrated in short-cycle tertiary (diploma) and post-secondary non-tertiary (certificate) programs, which together account for 91.7 per cent of total college enrolment in 2023–24. This structure has historically been a strength: short-cycle programs are tightly aligned with labour-market needs in trades, technical services, health support, and administration.

However, this same structure creates high enrolment turnover. Unlike universities, where students remain enrolled for three to four years, colleges depend on a constant inflow of new entrants. When international arrivals are capped, the impact is felt almost immediately.

This dynamic is already visible in administrative data. According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, study permit approvals for college-bound students fell by roughly 60 per cent in the first 10 months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023.10

The consequence is an immediate depletion of the entering cohort and a rapid revenue vacuum, with limited ability to offset losses through retention or upper-year enrolment.

Disciplinary exposure: business dependence versus technical resilience

In 2023–24, nearly one in four college students were enrolled in business, management, and public administration programs. This field has historically underpinned college revenue growth because it is low-cost to deliver, scalable, and highly attractive to international students.

However this reveals a critical vulnerability. Business diplomas are now the primary target of PGWP eligibility restrictions, making this concentration a material financial risk. Institutions with outsized exposure to business programs face the sharpest enrolment and revenue contractions.

To recover from the collapse of the business-heavy diploma model, colleges can rebalance toward fields that meet three conditions: strong hiring demand, PGWP eligibility, and public-policy support. Several technical and applied fields show a promising outlook, but current enrolment in these fields is highly uneven across regions, reflecting differences in provincial funding, labour-market structure, and training capacity.

  • Math, computer, and information sciences recorded 23.9 per cent enrolment growth in 2023–24, the fastest of any field. Notably, this expansion occurred in nearly all provinces except British Columbia, where college-level enrolment declined. B.C. already has one of the highest concentrations of private and public tech-training providers in Canada, alongside strong university-level capacity and direct labour-market entry options in the tech sector. As a result, incremental college expansion in B.C. might face diminishing returns despite continued employer demand.
  • Health-related college enrolment has increased since the pandemic, but only in provinces where education funding, health workforce planning, and clinical capacity have been aligned. Ontario, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia have experienced strong growth, driven by explicit provincial strategies to expand nursing and allied health seats, often tied to return-of-service agreements and parallel investments in clinical placements. In contrast, British Columbia, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan saw enrolment declines in 2023–24 despite acute workforce shortages.
  • Architecture, engineering, and trades programs recorded a marked increase in college enrolment in 2023–24, but this expansion was overwhelmingly concentrated in Ontario. The province benefits from sustained infrastructure spending, housing-related labour demand, and relatively strong integration between colleges, apprenticeships, and employers. By contrast, Alberta and British Columbia show a decade-long downward trend in college enrolment in these fields. In both provinces, strong construction cycles have often pulled potential students directly into employment rather than training. Apprenticeship bottlenecks and employer-led training models further limit college-based enrolment growth, even when labour demand is high.11

Strategic implications: survival through diversification

A key reminder for college leaders is that while enrolment has increased in technical and health fields, those gains are not large enough to offset the collapse of the business diploma model. The scale of enrolment losses in business programs overwhelms gains elsewhere in the short term.

Colleges that entered this period with diversified program portfolios, strong employer integration, and a higher share of PGWP-aligned or domestically driven programs will be far better positioned to absorb the ongoing contraction. Those heavily concentrated in generic business credentials face structural adjustment pressures.

The challenge for colleges is rapid adaptation to a fundamentally altered demand environment, where policy risk, program relevance, and turnover dynamics now dominate the enrolment outlook.

Special topic: international student enrolment

From engine of growth to managed scarcity

International students have been one of the most important growth engines in Canadian PSE over the past decade. Their contribution extends well beyond enrolment counts: international students generate billions in tuition revenue, cross-subsidize domestic education, and supply labour to key sectors through work-integrated learning and post-graduation employment.

That model is now undergoing a forced reset. After years of double-digit expansion, the system has entered a phase of contraction, recalibration, and eventual stabilization, driven primarily by federal immigration policy.

The adjustment underway is structural. It is redefining who institutions recruit, what programs remain viable, and how financial risk is distributed across provinces and sectors.

Study permit holders versus international enrolment: a growing disconnect

Following years of sustained growth, the number of post-secondary study permit holders reached a record 834,000 in 2023–24, up 27.7 per cent from 2022–23. Yet actual international post-secondary enrolment stood at 573,000 in 2023–24, far below the permit count. The gap between permits and enrolment has widened sharply since the pandemic.

Several forces explain this divergence. According to a 2023 Statistics Canada study, post-secondary study permits increasingly function as flexible migration instruments, with some holders delaying enrolment, switching institutions, or working while enrolled part-time.12 At the same time, the rapid expansion of short-cycle college programs with multiple intakes per year boosted permit volumes without translating into proportionate headcount enrolment at a single point in time. The result is a system where permits no longer map cleanly onto classroom demand, prompting federal authorities to shift from managing inflows to constraining outcomes, such as PGWP eligibility restrictions.

Colleges at the epicentre of international growth—and of risk exposure

In 2023–24, international college enrolment surged by 40.1 per cent, reaching 288,800 students and surpassing university enrolment for the first time. This growth reflected the attractiveness of short-cycle diplomas offering rapid entry, lower upfront costs, and access to a PGWP.

University enrolment also expanded, but at a slower pace and with growth concentrated in graduate programs. As a result, colleges entered 2024 far more exposed to policy reversal. When PGWP eligibility rules tightened and study permit caps took effect, the sector with the shortest program cycles and highest international concentration felt the impact first and most intensely.

Fields of study reveal where risk accumulated

The contrast between domestic and international enrolment growth by field of study illustrates the system’s strategic vulnerability. From 2022–23 to 2023–24, international enrolment increased across all fields of study, with the largest gains in health and related fields (+37.5 per cent). Domestic enrolment, by contrast, showed limited growth overall, with the strongest increase in math, computer, and information sciences (+5.8 per cent).

The contrast is most pronounced for colleges. International college enrolments in math, computer, and information sciences increased by more than 50 per cent in a single year. While this aligned with global demand for digital skills, it also concentrated institutional risk in programs heavily dependent on international demand.

International dependency varies sharply by discipline and province

In 2023–24, international students accounted for 24.5 per cent of total post-secondary enrolment, but their concentration varied sharply by discipline and institution type. Dependence was highest in business, management, and public administration and in math and computer science, particularly within colleges.

In the college sector, more than 60 per cent of enrolment in business-related programs in 2023–24 was international. In Ontario, the share approached 75 per cent, effectively tying the viability of these programs to immigration policy, rather than domestic labour-market demand. When PGWP eligibility for general business diplomas was restricted, enrolment collapsed, demonstrating how quickly policy changes can translate into financial shock.

Concentrated source countries amplify vulnerability

International enrolment in Canada is highly concentrated by country of citizenship. India is far and away the largest source country, with 223,500 students enrolled in 2023–24, representing roughly 40 per cent of all international students. China (66,600) and Nigeria (24,200) round out the top three.   

Concentration is even higher in colleges, where students from India represent nearly 60 per cent of all international enrolment. This creates a geopolitical and policy risk: shocks affecting a single source country can transmit rapidly through institutional finances, particularly in provinces already facing fiscal strain.

Revenue versus enrolment dependency

Institutional risk depends not only on how many international students are enrolled, but also on how much operating revenue depends on them. Provinces differ markedly in this respect.

Ontario, British Columbia, and most Atlantic provinces combine high international enrolment shares with heavy reliance on international tuition, leaving them acutely exposed to fiscal risks when volumes fall. Alberta and Saskatchewan sit at the opposite end of the spectrum, with lower international shares in both enrolment and revenue, offering greater insulation to policy shocks. Quebec occupies a distinct position: international enrolment shares are relatively modest, but tuition dependence is high. This indicates that risk is concentrated in smaller, high-fee international cohorts, often at the graduate level.

The intuition is simple: systems built on volume suffer enrolment shocks. Systems built on margin suffer revenue shocks. Systems built on both, which is where Canada’s high-exposure provinces are currently situated, now face simultaneous risks from both sides.

This exposure matters because international tuition has been the main source of new operating funding for post-secondary institutions (PSIs), whereas real per-student public funding has declined for years, and domestic tuition has been tightly regulated in several provinces.13

In Ontario alone, the Financial Accountability Office estimates losses of roughly $330 million in international tuition revenue in 2024 and $600 million in 2025.14 These figures underscore a key insight: the high-exposure model is no longer viable under current policy settings.

The enrolment outlook: sharp contraction, slow stabilization

We estimate that international enrolment declined by 27.7 per cent in 2024–25 and that it will decline a further 6.7 per cent by 2028–29 before gradually stabilizing in 2029–30. Colleges will bear the brunt of this adjustment, with international enrolment projected to fall by roughly half over five years.

This trajectory mirrors federal policy targets, which reduce study permit caps from approximately 485,000 in 2024 to 437,000 in 2025, stabilizing around 408,000 in 2026. Notably, actual permit issuance has run well below provincial targets, particularly in Alberta and Quebec, signalling that effective tightening exceeds headline caps.

From growth to discipline

For Canadian post-secondary leaders, the 2025–2030 period will be defined by the management of scarcity. The era of growth through high-volume international recruitment has ended.

PSIs now face a stark set of choices. Programs misaligned with labour-market demand or federal eligibility rules will rapidly lose international appeal. Revenue gaps created by declining international enrolment cannot be filled through domestic tuition or public funding alone. Survival will depend on a radical prioritization of programs that are either high-demand domestically, particularly technical and health fields, or high-margin internationally, such as graduate programs that are exempt from federal study-permit caps and PGWP restrictions.

Canada’s higher education system remains globally strong in quality and attainment. However, the business model that sustained it for the last decade is being forcibly retired. The institutions that survive this “storm” will be those that can successfully pivot toward higher-value credentials, deeper integration with the domestic workforce, and a more sustainable, diversified approach to global engagement.

  1. Subramaniam, “Canada reports biggest population decline on record.”
  2. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, “Canada to stabilize growth.”
  3. EduCanada, “New rules for post-graduation work permit.”
  4. The Conference Board of Canada, From Shortages to Solutions.
  5. Zeman, “A first look at provincial differences.”
  6. Statistics Canada, “Canada’s population estimates.”
  7. Canadian Institute for Health Information, National health expenditure trends.
  8. Government of Nova Scotia, “Government invests in more nursing seats”; Government of New Brunswick, “New Brunswick secures allied health training seats”; Whitten, “N.L. earmarks $2M in tuition subsidies.”
  9. Canadian Bureau for International Education, The Student Voice.
  10. Wong, “International student visas for Canada plummet.”
  11. BuildForce Canada, National summary – 2025 Highlights.
  12. Choi and Hou, “Characteristics of postsecondary international students.”
  13. Higher Education Strategy Associates, The State of Postsecondary Education in Canada 2023.
  14. ICEF Monitor, “Financial impact of new immigration settings.”

For more information, please download our methodology.

Methodology

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