National Household Spending Bounces Back
Index of Consumer Spending
The Index of Consumer Spending (ICS) averaged 117.2 points in November, a 6.0-point increase from October (the month of April 2022 = 100).
- November’s increase has brought the ICS to its highest point in the index’s history. The index’s second-highest point was in July 2023 at 116.8 points.
- This increase runs counter to consumer confidence as our Index of Consumer Confidence (ICC) fell in November.
- Inflation remained steady in November, growing by 3.1 per cent year-over-year (the same rate as in October). The largest contributors to inflation this month were mortgage interest costs, rent, and the cost of food purchased from stores.
- Changes in the unemployment rate—a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage points to 5.8 per cent in November—put little downward pressure on spending. Employment also held steady with a minor increase of 0.1 per cent or 25,000 jobs.
- Average hourly wages grew by 4.8 per cent year-over-year, outpacing inflation this month. This is a welcome development as consumers’ real wages (wage growth minus inflation) rose in aggregate.
- Up to December 9, preliminary data showed that the ICS decreased by 2.7 points. However, this could be reversed as the rest of December’s data comes in, especially as the preliminary data do not yet account for the final weeks of last-minute Christmas shopping.
Alberta
ICS rose by 1.3 points.
Alberta’s revised November ICS increased from 116.0 to 117.3 points. Preliminary data for December (up to December 9) showed the province erasing this gain and declining to 115.1 points.
British Columbia
ICS grew by 3.9 points..
British Columbia’s revised November ICS rose to 110.1 points. Up to December 9, preliminary data show the province’s ICS declining marginally to 109.5 points.
Manitoba
ICS added 3.9 points.
Manitoba’s revised November ICS grew to 125.5 points. Preliminary December data (up to December 9) showed the province erasing this gain with its ICS declining by 5.7 points.
New Brunswick
ICS grew by 1.9 points.
New Brunswick’s revised November ICS had a minor increase month to month from 119.5 points to 121.4 points. December preliminary data (up to December 9) indicated that the province dampened this increase with a 1.3-point drop.
Newfoundland and Labrador
ICS leapt up by 11.1 points.
Newfoundland and Labrador’s revised November ICS saw the biggest increase among the provinces, growing to 125.0 points. December preliminary data (up to December 9) showed the province increasing further but at a much slower rate of only 1.7 points.
Northwest Territories
ICS grew by 5.9 points.
The Northwest Territories’ revised November ICS continued to recover, jumping from 111.4 points to 117.4 points. This growth is expected to continue in December. Preliminary data (up to December 9) showed the N.W.T. adding another 5.8 points to increase to 123.2 points.
Nova Scotia
ICS jumped by 6.0 points.
Nova Scotia’s revised November ICS increased to 134.6 points. This puts it first among the provinces in terms of ICS scores. Preliminary data for December (up to December 9) showed the province retaining this position, albeit with a minor decline to 132.7 points.
Nunavut
ICS fell by 6.1 points.
Nunavut’s revised November ICS, falling to 110.7 points, put an end to the territory’s consecutive monthly increases (since June 2023). This decline is seen to continue into December as preliminary data, up to December 9, indicate another decrease of 0.8 points.
Ontario
ICS increased by 9.3 points.
Ontario’s revised November ICS rose to 112.9 points. However, preliminary data for December (up to the 9th) showed the province retreating slightly to 110.3 points.
Prince Edward Island
ICS increased by 6.9 points.
P.E.I.’s revised November ICS rose to 130.4 points, ending the province’s two-month ICS decline. Preliminary data for December (up to December 9) showed the province continuing its recovery with another increase to 130.7 points.
Quebec
ICS grew by 6.0 points.
Quebec’s revised November ICS rose to 130.5 points. Preliminary data for the month of December (up to December 9) showed the province’s average decreasing to 125.8 points, indicating an end of Quebec’s upward monthly streak.
Saskatchewan
ICS had a minor drop of 0.9 points.
Saskatchewan’s revised November ICS dropped to 110.2 points, marking five consecutive monthly declines for the province. December preliminary data (up to December 9) show the province dropping further to 105.1 points, making it six months of decline.
Yukon
ICS fell by 1.9 points.
The Yukon’s revised November ICS declined to 114.4 points, marking four consecutive monthly declines. This trend is expected to continue into December as preliminary data (up to December 9) showed the territory’s ICS losing 7.4 points.
Household spending increased on the back of improved consumer confidence in December.
Powered by Moneris Data Services
The Index of Consumer Spending is powered by exclusive consumer transaction data provided by Moneris Data Services. Moneris is Canada’s number one payment processor with over 3.5 billion transactions spanning more than 325,000 merchant locations. Our index tracks incremental changes in net transaction volume month-over-month from a set starting point (April 2022 = 100), enabling us to gauge economic activity levels across the country and provide insights into how the Canadian economy is performing coast to coast.
Updates on this index will be released monthly.
The Index of Consumer Spending’s (ICS) methodology has been revised for releases from January 2024 onwards. The ICS no longer tracks the weekly year-on-year changes in consumer spending. Instead, the ICS now tracks the incremental changes in net transaction volume month-over-month, from a set starting point (April 2022 = 100).
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.