Metropolitan Housing Starts
Longer-Term Expectations Largely Negative
Key Findings
- There are five census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with positive short- and long-term expectations this month, one less than last month. These are the CMAs in the up-up quadrant.
- Most CMAs’ short-term expectations are still up but are negative for the long term, as markets are expected to slow down from the red-hot levels seen during the pandemic.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in July housing starts were Saskatoon, Moncton, Hamilton, Saguenay, and Kingston.
- Thunder Bay had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts last month.
Expectations quadrant
*While residential permit data from the past six months suggest that starts will rise in Abbotsford–Mission in the short term, recent flooding in the area may make this impossible.
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the up–up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the down–down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Most cities’ long-term expectations are negative, as we expect markets to slow down from red-hot pandemic levels.
Metropolitan Housing Starts
| Expectations | ||||||||
| Year ago | 6 mon. MA | 3 mon. MA | July 2021 | Short-term* | Long-term** | |||
| St. John’s | 523 | 645 | 638 | 619 | – | – | ||
| Halifax | 6,695 | 2,951 | 3,488 | 3,489 | – | – | ||
| Saint John | 1,082 | 599 | 667 | 1,302 | + | + | ||
| Moncton | 4,602 | 1,599 | 2,392 | 1,586 | – | – | ||
| Québec CMA | 6,700 | 10,543 | 15,047 | 16,671 | + | – | ||
| Montréal | 35,853 | 34,545 | 32,546 | 30,630 | + | – | ||
| Trois–Rivières | 904 | 1,043 | 1,149 | 1,298 | + | – | ||
| Saguenay | 840 | 533 | 576 | 392 | + | – | ||
| Sherbrooke | 1,311 | 2,795 | 2,177 | 1,511 | + | – | ||
| Ottawa–Gatineau | 10,689 | 14,057 | 12,458 | 8,402 | + | – | ||
| Kingston | 1,230 | 1,016 | 585 | 578 | – | + | ||
| Greater Sudbury | 243 | 1,157 | 493 | 434 | + | – | ||
| Thunder Bay | 159 | 544 | 432 | 858 | + | – | ||
| Oshawa | 1,633 | 5,190 | 5,894 | 3,351 | + | – | ||
| Toronto | 48,433 | 39,179 | 37,761 | 46,356 | + | – | ||
| Hamilton | 6,935 | 4,729 | 4,027 | 3,086 | + | + | ||
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 3,017 | 2,621 | 2,416 | 2,155 | + | – | ||
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 2,232 | 5,331 | 5,192 | 6,027 | – | – | ||
| London | 3,252 | 7,530 | 7,838 | 6,716 | – | – | ||
| Windsor | 963 | 1,568 | 1,829 | 1,064 | – | – | ||
| Winnipeg | 5,559 | 5,392 | 6,238 | 4,928 | + | – | ||
| Regina | 931 | 956 | 797 | 687 | + | + | ||
| Saskatoon | 6,806 | 3,057 | 2,625 | 1,374 | – | + | ||
| Calgary | 8,844 | 14,452 | 16,341 | 16,943 | + | + | ||
| Edmonton | 10,869 | 12,155 | 11,991 | 11,286 | + | + | ||
| Vancouver | 24,332 | 31,940 | 33,296 | 24,383 | + | – | ||
| Victoria | 4,212 | 4,519 | 4,554 | 7,255 | + | – | ||
| Abbotsford–Mission | 488 | 1,043 | 932 | 499 | – | – | ||
| Thunder Bay | 352 | 419 | 377 | 83 | – | – | ||
| Oshawa | 1,624 | 5,025 | 5,926 | 4,769 | + | – | ||
| Toronto | 39,733 | 37,552 | 33,414 | 35,829 | + | – | ||
| Hamilton | 2,725 | 4,641 | 5,212 | 5,005 | + | + | ||
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 4,399 | 2,668 | 2,559 | 1,727 | + | – | ||
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 7,383 | 6,066 | 6,801 | 3,096 | + | – | ||
| London | 2,642 | 7,058 | 8,522 | 10,513 | + | – | ||
| Windsor | 1,835 | 1,716 | 2,200 | 1,725 | – | – | ||
| Winnipeg | 6,385 | 5,846 | 6,053 | 8,048 | + | – | ||
| Regina | 272 | 954 | 865 | 958 | + | + | ||
| Saskatoon | 1,919 | 3,430 | 3,553 | 2,121 | + | + | ||
| Calgary | 4,914 | 14,026 | 15,718 | 13,607 | + | + | ||
| Edmonton | 6,990 | 12,109 | 12,953 | 12,337 | + | + | ||
| Vancouver | 23,487 | 30,844 | 31,544 | 44,961 | – | – | ||
| Victoria | 2,338 | 3,778 | 3,539 | 4,156 | + | – | ||
| Abbotsford–Mission | 589 | 1,129 | 986 | 1,696 | – | – | ||
Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We’re doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit signal49.ca for our latest insights. Signal49 Research reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.
About the Metropolitan Housing Starts
The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.