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Vaughan, Vaughan Ontario, Canadian city, city horizon

Metropolitan Housing Starts

Some Cities Improve Their Short-Term Expectations as Residential Permits Increase

Key Findings

  • There were six census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with positive short- and long-term expectations (the up–up quandrant) in December. In the previous two months, Kingston was the only CMA in this quadrant.
  • Most markets are still cooling from a busy 2020 and 2021, however. The number of CMAs with negative short- and long-term expectations continues to outnumber the up–up quadrant.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in December were Oshawa, Ottawa–Gatineau, Moncton, Saguenay, and Montréal.
  • Thunder Bay had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts, although smaller CMAs do tend to have wider swings in their housing data from month to month.
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Expectations quadrant

expectations quadrant for the metro housing starts January 2022

*While residential permit data from the past six months suggest that starts will rise in Abbotsford–Mission in the short term, recent flooding in the area may make this impossible.
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the up–up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the down–down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

Most markets are still cooling from a busy 2020 and 2021

Metropolitan Housing Starts

 
    Expectations
Year ago 6 mon. MA 3 mon. MA Dec. 2021 Short-term* Long-term**
St. John‚Äôs 466 540 552 755 + –
Halifax 3,936 4,514 6,897 7,004 + –
Saint John 315 672 528 1,014 + –
Moncton 4,295 1,952 2,362 1,943 – –
Qu√©bec CMA 5,443 8,973 8,629 8,043 – –
Montr√©al 34,114 29,769 29,080 22,748 – –
Trois-Rivi√®res 579 1,332 1,518 1,800 + –
Saguenay 1,037 528 633 482 + –
Sherbrooke 1,760 2,587 3,050 3,291 + –
Ottawa‚ÄìGatineau 13,037 12,639 13,707 5,008 – –
Kingston 699 1,589 2,672 565 + +
Greater Sudbury 197 551 255 182 – –
Thunder Bay 15 241 136 151 + +
Oshawa 2,281 2,829 2,411 799 – –
Toronto 31,654 46,704 44,079 29,637 + +
Hamilton 4,147 3,917 3,804 3,855 – –
St. Catharines‚ÄìNiagara 2,953 2,707 2,627 2,039 + –
Kitchener–Waterloo 3,679 5,165 5,577 6,242 Р+
London 2,877 4,308 3,192 3,190 – –
Windsor 1,344 1,205 1,331 1,233 – –
Winnipeg 4,107 5,514 4,861 6,139 + +
Regina 1,144 1,018 1,295 1,057 + +
Saskatoon 1,823 2,032 1,427 1,730 + +
Calgary 9,920 15,999 18,189 13,604 + –
Edmonton 16,861 13,043 13,900 12,889 – –
Vancouver 26,263 21,296 22,249 26,630 + –
Victoria 4,238 5,858 5,330 7,801 + –
Abbotsford‚ÄìMission 516 1,038 1,226 2,195 + –

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

 

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

The spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created uncertainty in all global markets. We‚Äôre doing our best to provide timely updates, but information can fall out of date quickly. Visit signal49.ca for our latest insights. Signal49 Research reserves the right to adjust content as necessary.

 

About the Metropolitan Housing Starts

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.