Metropolitan Housing Starts
Expectations Continue to Be Largely Negative
July 26, 2022
Key Findings
- There are only two CMAs in the Up-Up quadrant this month, two fewer than the previous month.
- Less than 20 per cent of the CMAs have positive long-term expectations this month.
- The CMAs with the greatest year-over-year percentage decreases in housing starts in June were London, Greater Sudbury, Sherbrooke, Québec City, and Victoria.
- Halifax had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts in the latest month of data.
Metro Housing Data
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Expectations Quadrant
| Long-term Up |
Long-term Down |
|
|---|---|---|
| Short-term Up |
|
|
| Short-term Down |
|
|
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Halifax had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts in the latest month of data.
Metropolitan Housing Starts
| Year ago | 6 mon. MA | 3 mon. MA | Jun 2022 | Expectations Short-term* |
Expectations Long-term** |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John’s | 528 | 1,101 | 996 | 562 | + | – |
| Halifax | 166 | 4,108 | 5,151 | 4,359 | + | – |
| Saint John | 354 | 739 | 988 | 319 | + | – |
| Moncton | 1,957 | 1,664 | 2,649 | 3,046 | + | – |
| Québec CMA | 16,966 | 8,553 | 9,134 | 7,905 | + | – |
| Montréal | 39,010 | 28,562 | 35,098 | 36,469 | + | – |
| Trois-Rivières | 1,282 | 1,294 | 1,911 | 1,455 | – | – |
| Saguenay | 631 | 957 | 695 | 594 | – | – |
| Sherbrooke | 2,615 | 1,909 | 2,045 | 1,124 | – | – |
| Ottawa–Gatineau | 8,916 | 13,009 | 13,408 | 10,660 | + | – |
| Kingston | 563 | 754 | 1,036 | 583 | – | – |
| Greater Sudbury | 423 | 407 | 265 | 125 | + | – |
| Thunder Bay | 83 | 180 | 238 | 580 | – | + |
| Oshawa | 4,728 | 2,855 | 4,266 | 3,584 | + | – |
| Toronto | 35,921 | 39,997 | 37,843 | 49,860 | – | – |
| Hamilton | 4,780 | 3,141 | 4,003 | 4,540 | + | – |
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 1,667 | 2,769 | 3,585 | 1,718 | + | – |
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 3,118 | 3,164 | 3,763 | 6,286 | + | + |
| London | 10,519 | 3,529 | 3,732 | 2,865 | + | – |
| Windsor | 1,702 | 1,511 | 1,783 | 1,373 | + | – |
| Winnipeg | 8,004 | 5,730 | 5,587 | 5,960 | – | + |
| Regina | 927 | 950 | 1,190 | 949 | + | + |
| Saskatoon | 2,111 | 3,034 | 4,378 | 5,499 | – | + |
| Calgary | 13,647 | 16,529 | 20,040 | 22,218 | + | – |
| Edmonton | 12,342 | 14,524 | 17,640 | 12,442 | – | – |
| Vancouver | 44,966 | 23,572 | 29,260 | 32,420 | + | – |
| Victoria | 4,099 | 3,429 | 3,482 | 2,665 | – | – |
| Abbotsford–Mission | 1,691 | 1,652 | 1,790 | 1,967 | + | – |
Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rates.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.