Metropolitan Housing Starts
Signs of Slowing Demand as Longer-Term Expectations Largely Negative
Key findings
- There are four CMAs in the Up-Up quandrant this month, one more than the previous month.
- Winnipeg is the only city with negative short-term but positive long-term expectations this month.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in May were Kitchener–Waterloo, Thunder Bay, Hamilton, Oshawa, and Windsor.
- Saint John had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts in the latest month of data.
Expectations quadrant
*While residential permit data from the past six months suggest that starts will rise in Abbotsford–Mission in the short term, recent flooding in the area may make this impossible.
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Saint John had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts in the latest month of data.
Metropolitan Housing Starts
| Expectations | ||||||||
| Year ago | 6 mon. MA | 3 mon. MA | May 2022 | Short-term* | Long-term** | |||
| St. John’s | 728 | 1,141 | 1,352 | 1,133 | + | – | ||
| Halifax | 6,815 | 4,535 | 4,204 | 9,708 | + | – | ||
| Saint John | 338 | 860 | 1,037 | 1,801 | + | – | ||
| Moncton | 3,576 | 1,483 | 2,043 | 4,021 | + | – | ||
| Québec CMA | 11,473 | 8,587 | 10,044 | 7,907 | + | – | ||
| Montréal | 27,970 | 26,255 | 30,698 | 34,576 | + | – | ||
| Trois-Rivières | 872 | 1,359 | 1,582 | 1,145 | + | – | ||
| Saguenay | 696 | 919 | 774 | 615 | + | – | ||
| Sherbrooke | 2,370 | 2,287 | 2,077 | 3,007 | + | – | ||
| Ottawa–Gatineau | 19,874 | 12,144 | 15,534 | 14,954 | – | – | ||
| Kingston | 608 | 746 | 875 | 2,306 | + | – | ||
| Greater Sudbury | 632 | 442 | 699 | 413 | + | – | ||
| Thunder Bay | 334 | 110 | 75 | 132 | + | + | ||
| Oshawa | 9,491 | 2,399 | 3,750 | 4,276 | + | – | ||
| Toronto | 30,776 | 36,752 | 34,440 | 39,523 | – | – | ||
| Hamilton | 3,972 | 3,025 | 3,361 | 1,676 | – | – | ||
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 3,398 | 2,841 | 3,648 | 3,368 | + | – | ||
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 6,425 | 3,142 | 3,016 | 2,430 | + | + | ||
| London | 6,253 | 3,586 | 3,703 | 5,936 | – | – | ||
| Windsor | 2,689 | 1,511 | 1,746 | 1,592 | – | – | ||
| Winnipeg | 5,724 | 5,732 | 5,146 | 5,202 | – | + | ||
| Regina | 764 | 966 | 1,167 | 1,420 | + | + | ||
| Saskatoon | 4,278 | 2,431 | 3,019 | 2,801 | + | + | ||
| Calgary | 18,352 | 15,112 | 18,162 | 20,801 | – | – | ||
| Edmonton | 12,340 | 14,572 | 17,389 | 20,830 | – | – | ||
| Vancouver | 30,553 | 22,620 | 23,218 | 24,531 | + | – | ||
| Victoria | 2,304 | 4,294 | 3,088 | 3,969 | – | – | ||
| Abbotsford–Mission | 605 | 1,694 | 1,485 | 989 | + | – | ||
Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
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About the Metropolitan Housing Starts
The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.