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Metropolitan Housing Starts

Expectations Slightly Better This Month

April 13, 2021

Key Findings

  • There are 11 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) with positive short- and long-term expectations this month, two more than last month. These are the CMAs in the up-up quadrant.
  • Vancouver and Victoria remain in the down-down quadrant, with negative expectations for both the short and long terms.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage increase in housing starts in February were Sherbrooke, London, Montréal, Saskatoon, and Oshawa.
  • Kitchener–Waterloo had the largest year-over-year percentage decline in starts last month.
See available data

Metro Housing Data

You can purchase Metro housing data directly from the e-Data site; or if you need these data on a regular basis, you can purchase a database subscription.

Expectations Quadrant

Long-term
Up		 Long-term
Down
Short-term
Up
  • St. John’s
  • Kingston
  • Sudbury
  • Toronto
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • Winnipeg
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Halifax
  • Saint John
  • Moncton
  • Montréal
  • Saguenay
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Sherbrooke
  • Oshawa
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • London
  • Windsor
  • Abbotsford–Mission
Short-term
Down
  • Thunder Bay
  • Québec City
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

Two more CMAs this month had positive expectations for both short and long terms.

Metropolitan Housing Starts

Year ago 6 mon. MA 3 mon. MA Oct 2022 Expectations
Short-term*		 Expectations
Long-term**
St. John’s 352 487 483 418 + +
Halifax 5,760 4,099 3,932 3,089 + –
Saint John 672 521 367 341 + –
Moncton 427 1,687 2,036 375 + –
Québec CMA 2,536 7,681 7,554 3,696 – –
Montréal 19,555 34,132 37,075 39,846 + –
Trois-Rivières 544 672 572 485 + –
Saguenay 312 788 1,027 270 + –
Sherbrooke 819 2,842 2,522 3,508 + –
Ottawa–Gatineau 17,026 13,476 11,822 11,830 – –
Kingston 447 1,257 935 593 + +
Greater Sudbury 132 335 306 158 + +
Thunder Bay 105 130 73 105 – +
Oshawa 2,417 3,169 2,908 4,429 + –
Toronto 31,242 32,559 30,712 24,410 + +
Hamilton 7,017 4,351 4,920 8,029 + +
St. Catharines–Niagara 2,541 2,525 2,397 2,010 + –
Kitchener–Waterloo 3,620 4,682 5,091 1,230 + +
London 2,833 6,614 5,443 9,554 + –
Windsor 1,071 1,923 1,424 976 + –
Winnipeg 4,177 5,878 5,815 5,673 + +
Regina 812 907 1,004 1,259 + +
Saskatoon 988 1,865 2,421 1,813 + +
Calgary 8,318 11,189 10,820 8,281 + +
Edmonton 8,128 13,360 13,527 12,581 + +
Vancouver 20,691 23,618 23,934 27,754 – –
Victoria 5,937 2,955 3,063 2,075 – –
Abbotsford–Mission 2,735 1,067 1,176 2,024 + –

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rates.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.