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Metropolitan Housing Starts

More Cities Move Toward Negative Expectations

December 2, 2021

Key Findings

  • For the second month in a row, only one census metropolitan area (CMA) is in the up-up expectations quadrant. Toronto remains the only city to have positive short- and long-term expectations.
  • Most CMAs are now in the down-down quadrant with negative short- and long-term expectations—a growing sign that housing markets are slowing after their brisk activity in the first year of the pandemic.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in October were Hamilton, Thunder Bay, Windsor, Winnipeg, and Greater Sudbury.
  • Halifax had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts last month.
See available data

Metro Housing Data

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Expectations Quadrant

Long-term
Up		 Long-term
Down
Short-term
Up
  • Toronto
  • Montréal
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • Thunder Bay
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • Winnipeg
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Victoria
  • Abbotsford–Mission*
Short-term
Down
  • Kingston
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon
  • St. John’s
  • Halifax
  • Moncton
  • Saint John
  • Québec City
  • Saguenay
  • Sherbrooke
  • Sudbury
  • Oshawa
  • Hamilton
  • London
  • Windsor
  • Vancouver

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

For the second month in a row, Toronto is the only city with positive short- and long-term expectations.

Metropolitan Housing Starts

Year ago 6 mon. MA 3 mon. MA Oct 2022 Expectations
Short-term*		 Expectations
Long-term**
St. John’s 467 583 536 601 – –
Halifax 1,355 3,567 3,655 7,699 – –
Saint John 235 592 519 404 – –
Moncton 952 2,016 1,657 1,893 – –
Québec CMA 9,350 10,719 6,409 7,920 – –
Montréal 24,733 31,148 29,776 28,180 + –
Trois-Rivières 964 1,117 1,079 1,094 + –
Saguenay 656 518 454 484 – –
Sherbrooke 5,675 2,417 2,683 3,105 – –
Ottawa–Gatineau 10,341 13,571 14,687 17,660 + –
Kingston 970 561 541 678 – +
Greater Sudbury 536 641 795 288 – –
Thunder Bay 189 251 76 59 + –
Oshawa 3,834 4,744 3,588 4,293 – –
Toronto 36,330 41,177 44,424 31,591 + +
Hamilton 6,146 3,650 3,395 1,007 – –
St. Catharines–Niagara 3,729 2,783 3,127 3,232 + –
Kitchener–Waterloo 2,869 5,176 5,161 7,239 – +
London 3,619 5,995 4,139 2,892 – –
Windsor 2,099 1,423 1,038 891 – –
Winnipeg 7,071 5,994 5,780 3,708 + –
Regina 490 805 823 876 – +
Saskatoon 1,506 2,612 2,617 1,300 – +
Calgary 11,850 14,771 13,231 15,171 + –
Edmonton 17,471 13,104 14,238 17,422 + –
Vancouver 15,340 26,304 19,282 21,227 – –
Victoria 3,414 4,921 5,303 3,973 + –
Abbotsford–Mission 1,421 943 954 821 + –

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rates.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.