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Metropolitan Housing Starts

Signs of Softer Markets to Come

December 1, 2022

Key Findings

  • Only four CMAs remain in the Up-Up quandrant this month, two fewer than last month.
  • All of the Quebec CMAs have slipped into negative expectations for both the short and long terms.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in October were Halifax, Greater Sudbury, Saint John, St. John’s, and Sherbrooke.
  • Hamilton had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts in the latest month of data.
See available data

Metro Housing Data

You can purchase Metro housing data directly from the e-Data site; or if you need these data on a regular basis, you can purchase a database subscription.

Expectations Quadrant

Long-term
Up		 Long-term
Down
Short-term
Up
  • Thunder Bay
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • Saskatoon
  • Halifax
  • Moncton
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • Oshawa
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • Windsor
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
Short-term
Down
  • Kingston
  • Toronto
  • Winnipeg
  • Regina
  • St. John’s
  • Saint John
  • Québec City
  • Montréal
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Saguenay
  • Sherbrooke
  • Greater Sudbury
  • London
  • Abbotsford–Mission

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in October were Halifax, Greater Sudbury, Saint John, St. John’s, and Sherbrooke.

Metropolitan Housing Starts

Year ago 6 mon. MA 3 mon. MA Oct 2022 Expectations
Short-term*		 Expectations
Long-term**
St. John’s 597 622 447 224 – –
Halifax 8,128 4,134 1,696 976 + –
Saint John 402 534 276 326 – –
Moncton 1,886 2,803 2,403 547 + –
Québec CMA 7,964 8,023 8,367 9,708 – –
Montréal 28,260 27,868 23,763 29,209 – –
Trois-Rivières 1,089 1,066 947 957 – –
Saguenay 482 590 616 508 – –
Sherbrooke 3,164 1,703 1,617 1,446 – –
Ottawa–Gatineau 17,698 18,241 19,665 19,446 + –
Kingston 672 1,044 887 438 – +
Greater Sudbury 346 300 323 90 – –
Thunder Bay 76 257 153 131 + +
Oshawa 4,236 4,917 5,896 9,898 + –
Toronto 31,667 46,774 50,546 34,400 – +
Hamilton 1,033 2,807 2,741 4,354 + +
St. Catharines–Niagara 3,271 3,456 4,746 2,170 + –
Kitchener–Waterloo 7,265 4,621 4,665 5,570 + +
London 2,912 3,701 3,351 4,602 – –
Windsor 895 1,724 1,868 725 + –
Winnipeg 3,676 5,557 5,660 8,587 – +
Regina 843 1,144 1,195 1,877 – +
Saskatoon 1,317 3,049 2,755 2,538 + +
Calgary 15,090 19,829 17,869 20,253 + –
Edmonton 17,419 17,029 17,831 23,658 + –
Vancouver 21,078 26,914 27,078 25,972 + –
Victoria 3,992 5,505 5,010 7,305 + –
Abbotsford–Mission 830 1,371 1,118 777 – –

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rates.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.