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Metropolitan Housing Starts

Little Change in Expectations Over the Past Month

October 27, 2021

Key Findings

  • Only one city, Toronto, still has positive short- and long-term expectations this month.
  • The most occupied expectations quadrant is the postive short-term/negative long-term one, signalling that the recent strength in census metropolitan area (CMA) housing markets may wane over the next couple of years.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in September were Kingston, Windsor, Kitchener–Waterloo, Hamilton, and Halifax.
  • Greater Sudbury had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts last month—a more than tenfold increase in level terms. It is important to keep in mind, however, that smaller cities do tend to have larger swings in the data on a montly basis.
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Metro Housing Data

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Expectations Quadrant

Long-term
Up		 Long-term
Down
Short-term
Up
  • Toronto
  • Saint John
  • Québec City
  • Montréal
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Sherbrooke
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Oshawa
  • Hamilton
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • Windsor
  • Winnipeg
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
  • Abbotsford–Mission
Short-term
Down
  • Kingston
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon
  • St. John’s
  • Halifax
  • Moncton
  • Saguenay
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • London

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

Most cities have postive short-term and negative long-term expectations, signalling that housing markets may wane over the next couple of years.

Metropolitan Housing Starts

Year ago 6 mon. MA 3 mon. MA Sep 2021 Expectations
Short-term*		 Expectations
Long-term**
St. John’s 334 609 534 545 – –
Halifax 5,306 2,506 2,173 2,627 – –
Saint John 734 694 816 854 + –
Moncton 718 1,985 1,551 640 – –
Québec CMA 8,871 10,609 9,315 9,100 + –
Montréal 32,516 32,954 30,502 34,059 + –
Trois-Rivières 488 1,078 1,150 1,696 + –
Saguenay 388 553 427 247 – –
Sherbrooke 2,274 2,367 2,134 3,064 + –
Ottawa–Gatineau 17,320 13,871 11,579 15,678 – –
Kingston 2,597 559 503 322 – +
Greater Sudbury 194 737 840 2,026 + –
Thunder Bay 114 354 340 102 + –
Oshawa 3,742 4,599 3,287 3,165 + –
Toronto 32,347 41,457 49,373 55,291 + +
Hamilton 2,702 4,580 4,033 951 + –
St. Catharines–Niagara 1,940 2,673 2,788 3,910 + –
Kitchener–Waterloo 7,751 5,765 4,760 2,705 – +
London 4,480 6,965 5,414 4,952 – –
Windsor 2,359 1,637 1,088 721 + –
Winnipeg 2,534 6,111 6,183 7,974 + –
Regina 527 794 747 983 – +
Saskatoon 918 3,093 2,653 5,385 – +
Calgary 11,859 14,738 13,769 11,637 + –
Edmonton 10,378 12,563 12,176 10,687 + –
Vancouver 21,455 25,928 20,313 14,109 + –
Victoria 2,319 4,957 6,384 4,975 + –
Abbotsford–Mission 1,067 914 847 1,471 + –

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rates.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.