Metropolitan Housing Starts
Longer-Term Expectations Remain Largely Negative
Key findings
- There are six CMAs in the Up-Up quadrant this month, the same number as last month.
- Most of the Quebec CMAs remain in the Down-Down quadrant, with negative expectations for the short and long terms.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in September were Greater Sudbury, Saskatoon, Saint John, Halifax, and Winnipeg.
- Moncton had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts in the latest month of data.
Expectations quadrant
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in September were Greater Sudbury, Saskatoon, Saint John, Halifax, and Winnipeg.
Metropolitan Housing Starts
| Expectations | ||||||||
| Year ago | 6 mon. MA | 3 mon. MA | Sept. 2022 | Short-term* | Long-term** | |||
| St. John’s | 538 | 812 | 624 | 401 | + | – | ||
| Halifax | 2,606 | 4,199 | 3,320 | 953 | + | – | ||
| Saint John | 856 | 614 | 266 | 243 | – | – | ||
| Moncton | 628 | 2,866 | 3,086 | 2,845 | + | – | ||
| Québec CMA | 9,116 | 8,329 | 7,523 | 5,625 | + | – | ||
| Montréal | 34,032 | 28,698 | 22,321 | 24,962 | – | – | ||
| Trois-Rivières | 1,695 | 1,426 | 956 | 906 | – | – | ||
| Saguenay | 247 | 655 | 609 | 550 | – | – | ||
| Sherbrooke | 3,050 | 1,798 | 1,572 | 1,831 | – | – | ||
| Ottawa–Gatineau | 15,705 | 17,403 | 21,431 | 23,556 | + | – | ||
| Kingston | 324 | 1,010 | 991 | 813 | – | + | ||
| Greater Sudbury | 2,028 | 327 | 406 | 304 | + | – | ||
| Thunder Bay | 113 | 239 | 239 | 209 | + | + | ||
| Oshawa | 3,105 | 4,092 | 3,920 | 3,609 | + | – | ||
| Toronto | 55,221 | 45,058 | 52,204 | 65,144 | + | + | ||
| Hamilton | 954 | 3,089 | 2,168 | 2,311 | + | + | ||
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 3,997 | 4,075 | 4,560 | 9,699 | + | – | ||
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 2,706 | 4,103 | 4,382 | 3,541 | + | + | ||
| London | 4,966 | 3,342 | 2,936 | 3,629 | – | – | ||
| Windsor | 736 | 2,003 | 2,230 | 2,162 | + | – | ||
| Winnipeg | 7,955 | 5,058 | 4,500 | 3,388 | – | + | ||
| Regina | 978 | 1,036 | 898 | 1,000 | + | + | ||
| Saskatoon | 5,377 | 3,514 | 2,544 | 1,505 | + | + | ||
| Calgary | 11,697 | 19,296 | 18,598 | 19,467 | + | – | ||
| Edmonton | 10,682 | 16,358 | 15,275 | 16,844 | + | – | ||
| Vancouver | 14,169 | 27,713 | 26,191 | 32,024 | + | – | ||
| Victoria | 4,970 | 4,918 | 6,341 | 3,288 | + | – | ||
| Abbotsford–Mission | 1,474 | 1,644 | 1,508 | 1,920 | – | – | ||
Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements, as well as current conditions
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
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About the Metropolitan Housing Starts
The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.