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Metropolitan Housing Starts

Negative Long-Term Expectations Continue

Key findings

  • Only two census metropolitan areas (CMAs) this month have positive short- and long-term expectations, three fewer than last month. These are the CMAs in the up-up quadrant.
  • Most CMAs have negative long-term expectations for September—not surprising, given the recent pandemic-fuelled strength in markets across the country.
  • The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in August were Halifax, Québec City, Greater Sudbury, Oshawa, and Abbotsford–Mission.
  • Saguenay had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts last month, though smaller cities do tend to have larger swings in the data on a monthly basis.
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Expectations quadrant

Long-term
Up		 Long-term
Down
Short-term
Up
  • Toronto
  • Regina
  • Saint John
  • Québec City
  • Montréal
  • Saguenay
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Sherbrooke
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Oshawa
  • Hamilton
  • St. Catharines–Niagara
  • Winnipeg
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
  • Abbotsford–Mission
Short-term
Down
  • Kingston
  • Kitchener–Waterloo
  • Saskatoon
  • St. John’s
  • Halifax
  • Moncton
  • Ottawa–Gatineau
  • London
  • Windsor

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectations for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the up-up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the down-down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

Negative long-term expectations are understandable, given the recent pandemic-fuelled market activity seen across Canada.

Metropolitan Housing Starts

 
Year ago 6 mon. MA 3 mon. MA August 2021 Expectations
Short-term*		 Expectations
Long-term**
St. John’s 615 645 532 450 – –
Halifax 2,087 2,516 1,357 481 – –
Saint John 415 591 650 293 + –
Moncton 1,654 1,933 1,993 2,442 – –
Québec CMA 9,537 10,275 11,939 2,209 + –
Montréal 27,038 32,404 32,224 27,033 + –
Trois-Rivières 372 1,015 1,020 455 + –
Saguenay 164 594 560 653 + –
Sherbrooke 2,057 2,555 2,045 1,994 + –
Ottawa–Gatineau 20,632 13,860 9,315 10,571 – –
Kingston 969 1,023 592 635 – +
Greater Sudbury 286 1,138 304 73 + –
Thunder Bay 28 534 330 65 + –
Oshawa 8,643 5,024 3,828 3,335 + –
Toronto 62,169 42,891 43,105 46,824 + +
Hamilton 3,533 4,738 5,376 8,202 + –
St. Catharines–Niagara 2,318 2,618 1,995 2,152 + –
Kitchener–Waterloo 2,548 6,060 4,920 5,603 – +
London 2,393 6,722 7,255 4,511 – –
Windsor 1,921 1,659 1,434 1,519 – –
Winnipeg 3,844 5,389 6,233 5,740 + –
Regina 957 846 740 616 + +
Saskatoon 1,302 2,947 1,582 1,222 – +
Calgary 8,683 15,159 14,502 12,933 + –
Edmonton 9,307 12,462 12,736 14,575 + –
Vancouver 29,675 31,048 30,558 22,323 + –
Victoria 2,731 5,338 6,110 6,969 + –
Abbotsford–Mission 1,436 800 917 565 + –

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rates.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements
***CMHC did not collect data for Quebec for this time last year, as the province’s residential construction industry was shut from March 25 to April 19 due to COVID-19
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.