Metropolitan Housing Starts
Still Some Positivity for Most Housing Markets in the Short Term
Key Findings
- There are six CMAs in the Up-Up quadrant this month, two fewer than last month.
- Positive expectations still outweigh negative expectations for the short term—but the opposite is true for the long term.
- The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year percentage decrease in housing starts in August were Hamilton, London, Montréal, Victoria, and Sherbrooke.
- Greater Sudbury had the largest year-over-year percentage increase in starts in the latest month of data.
Expectations quadrant
Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Positive expectations still outweigh negative expectations for the short term—but the opposite is true for the long term.
Metropolitan Housing Starts
| Expectations | ||||||||
| Year ago | 6 mon. MA | 3 mon. MA | August 2022 | Short-term* | Long-term** | |||
| St. John’s | 437 | 1,013 | 707 | 781 | + | – | ||
| Halifax | 425 | 4,309 | 4,439 | 3,193 | + | – | ||
| Saint John | 292 | 656 | 289 | 260 | – | – | ||
| Moncton | 2,437 | 2,598 | 3,162 | 3,872 | + | – | ||
| Québec CMA | 2,178 | 9,173 | 8,301 | 9,779 | + | – | ||
| Montréal | 26,812 | 28,463 | 26,231 | 17,209 | + | – | ||
| Trois-Rivières | 437 | 1,354 | 1,132 | 939 | – | – | ||
| Saguenay | 620 | 698 | 623 | 785 | – | – | ||
| Sherbrooke | 1,879 | 1,702 | 1,345 | 1,616 | – | – | ||
| Ottawa–Gatineau | 10,682 | 16,278 | 17,149 | 15,897 | – | – | ||
| Kingston | 623 | 886 | 913 | 1,436 | – | + | ||
| Greater Sudbury | 70 | 517 | 356 | 616 | + | – | ||
| Thunder Bay | 69 | 220 | 366 | 133 | + | + | ||
| Oshawa | 3,286 | 3,832 | 3,927 | 4,209 | + | – | ||
| Toronto | 46,472 | 40,737 | 47,109 | 51,889 | + | + | ||
| Hamilton | 8,229 | 3,139 | 2,903 | 1,836 | + | + | ||
| St. Catharines–Niagara | 2,132 | 2,744 | 1,850 | 2,502 | + | – | ||
| Kitchener–Waterloo | 5,551 | 4,204 | 5,379 | 4,853 | + | + | ||
| London | 4,555 | 3,191 | 2,664 | 1,951 | – | – | ||
| Windsor | 1,489 | 1,843 | 1,968 | 2,760 | + | – | ||
| Winnipeg | 5,670 | 5,258 | 5,378 | 4,966 | – | + | ||
| Regina | 586 | 1,021 | 879 | 725 | + | + | ||
| Saskatoon | 1,167 | 3,469 | 3,871 | 4,274 | + | + | ||
| Calgary | 12,846 | 18,819 | 19,481 | 13,831 | + | – | ||
| Edmonton | 14,586 | 15,529 | 13,634 | 13,084 | + | – | ||
| Vancouver | 22,413 | 24,746 | 26,306 | 23,265 | + | – | ||
| Victoria | 6,975 | 4,634 | 6,176 | 4,538 | + | – | ||
| Abbotsford–Mission | 572 | 1,498 | 1,522 | 662 | + | – | ||
Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*short-term expectations are based on residential permits data
**long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements, as well as current conditions
Sources: Signal49 Research; CMHC Housing Market Information Portal.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
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About the Metropolitan Housing Starts
The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.