Another Electric Month for Resale Markets

Metropolitan Resale Snapshot

April 20, 2021

Canada’s existing housing markets continued red-hot in March, as rising listings allowed higher sales volumes in many markets. Interest rates remain low, and homebuyers generally want more living space and can look in secondary markets, now that many former commuters work from home.
Sales rose in 22 of our 30 markets during March, with gains exceeding 5 per cent in 20 areas. Transactions were above their year-earlier levels in all 30 markets, partly because COVID-19 restrictions limited March 2020 activity. While listings rose in 28 of our 30 markets during March—including 20 where the gain was at least 5 per cent—and exceeded their year-earlier levels in all 30 markets, further supply additions could be needed to fulfill homebuyer demand.
Most markets continue to be extremely tight; 26 remain in sellers’ territory and prices rose at least 20 per cent year-over-year in 21 areas. Further strong price growth appears likely in the near term, since sales rose faster (or fell less) than listings in 13 of our 30 markets last month.
Sales rose in Vancouver and Calgary during March, but eased in Toronto and fell more substantially in Montréal. Vancouver’s transactions were at a record high, while those in Toronto were just below February 2021’s all-time peak. Calgary’s volumes are also surging, and are near their 2006 high. Montréal’s have now eased in five of the past six months, perhaps limited by previously scarce listings.
Listings rose in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal during March. Vancouver’s gain exceeded 20 per cent. Those in Calgary and Montréal were lower, but still in double digits. Toronto listings were largely flat. All four cities’ listings are now above year-earlier levels. Sellers’ conditions persist in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal. Calgary’s conditions are balanced.
Prices rose in all four of Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal last month. Especially large monthly increases in the latter two cities lifted their year-over-year gains above 20 per cent. Vancouver and Calgary had smaller—but still double-digit—annual increases.

Forecast of near-term price growth

(year-over-year)

7% +

Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax, Newfoundland and Labrador

5–6.9%

Regina, Saskatoon

3–4.9%

None

0–2.9%

None

Falling

None

Resale indicators for March 2021

				Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Market¹	Market classification	Sales (#)²	Listings (#)	Level	Balanced market range³	Price ($)
Victoria	Sellers’	11,484	12,072	0.924	0.483–0.766	885,846
m/m %		–0.3	–7.5			0.1
y/y %		93.3	30.8			19.8
Vancouver	Sellers’	62,688	82,524	0.768	0.435–0.718	1,167,367
		22.2	21.1			1.9
		132.0	81.8			10.5
Fraser Valley⁴	Sellers’	34,068	43,428	0.791	0.439–0.711	994,286
		–4.7	1.2			4.6
		139.8	93.0			30.8
Calgary	Balanced	39,708	58,128	0.718	0.462–0.725	508,573
		7.6	18.9			3.5
		147.3	99.8			15.6
Edmonton	Balanced	32,652	47,172	0.693	0.450–0.710	402,563
		9.7	11.4			3.5
		105.5	57.0			14.7
Regina	Balanced	5,568	8,244	0.711	0.489–0.752	329,027
		13.7	22.0			9.7
		64.0	47.4			4.7
Saskatoon	Sellers’	9,768	12,384	0.751	0.424–0.678	343,514
		17.0	3.6			0.5
		94.7	43.9			5.2
Winnipeg	Sellers’	21,480	23,076	0.930	0.446–0.788	346,619
		6.2	3.1			2.9
		71.8	12.2			14.4
Thunder Bay	Sellers’	2,772	3,204	0.854	0.495–0.756	287,738
		5.0	1.5			–5.7
		61.5	30.9			23.6
Sudbury	Sellers’	4,320	4,620	0.942	0.342–0.669	372,842
		18.8	21.8			–0.7
		79.1	54.6			20.1
Toronto	Sellers’	162,792	230,136	0.717	0.464–0.686	1,085,071
		–0.5	0.9			4.2
		103.2	63.3			21.7
Oshawa	Sellers’	21,840	26,904	0.813	0.477–0.748	880,986
		6.6	–4.4			0.8
		96.1	51.7			36.6
Hamilton	Sellers’	22,032	25,476	0.860	0.433–0.797	851,464
		11.4	4.0			2.2
		78.8	53.2			31.3
St. Catharines	Sellers’	5,628	7,368	0.782	0.395–0.715	699,392
		15.0	37.7			–7.1
		98.7	54.3			34.4
Kitchener	Sellers’	15,708	18,396	0.841	0.482–0.763	751,823
		28.5	18.5			0.0
		87.0	61.2			34.0
Guelph	Sellers’	5,496	6,012	0.901	0.506–0.836	784,558
		11.2	6.4			1.5
		68.4	44.4			31.1
London	Sellers’	14,400	15,432	0.910	0.417–0.709	622,051
		7.5	6.1			3.5
		65.1	26.1			43.3
Windsor	Sellers’	9,396	10,944	0.871	0.436–0.686	509,201
		1.7	3.6			9.1
		52.0	13.2			46.3
Kingston	Sellers’	6,336	6,936	0.895	0.359–0.667	575,340
		22.8	0.2			–2.9
		64.5	23.8			37.4
Ottawa	Sellers’	27,216	27,936	0.948	0.411–0.713	651,887
		9.0	8.6			3.1
		60.1	40.6			30.8
Gatineau	Sellers’	7,154	7,410	0.926	0.440–0.743	380,068
		–3.0	8.0			3.1
		18.2	28.9			30.4
Montréal	Sellers’	57,361	74,612	0.780	0.475–0.718	537,881
		–6.2	14.9			4.8
		9.4	40.6			26.6
Québec City	Balanced	11,515	16,457	0.708	0.496–0.768	322,009
		–2.9	30.3			0.2
		18.8	53.9			12.6
Sherbrooke	Sellers’	2,802	3,196	0.891	0.446–0.753	369,036
		8.4	9.0			–3.9
		32.6	42.1			39.6
Trois-Rivières	Sellers’	1,727	2,174	0.811	0.473–0.797	220,687
		19.4	30.6			–1.2
		22.0	75.7			24.4
Saguenay	Sellers’	1,859	2,235	0.837	0.426–0.733	230,102
		–6.0	16.2			6.8
		46.9	47.1			27.9
Saint John	Sellers’	3,192	3,792	0.812	0.356–0.631	265,095
		–3.3	29.0			20.6
		26.7	60.4

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.

Another Electric Month for Resale Markets

Recent market performance

Forecast of near-term price growth

Resale indicators for March 2021