Metropolitan Resale Snapshot
Market Downdraft Persists
August 23, 2022
Key Findings
- July’s 5 per cent dip in national existing home sales was the fifth straight monthly drop. It put transactions 27 per cent below July 2021 and 13 per cent below the 10-year average of seasonally adjusted monthly sales. Meanwhile, perhaps unnerved by recent market softness, potential home sellers refrained from marketing their homes, cutting monthly listings by 5 per cent. This supply reduction eased the monthly rate of decline in Canada’s average resale price to 3.3 per cent from over 4 per cent in each of the two previous months, although this was the fifth consecutive monthly downtick. Rapid interest rate increases and economic uncertainty remain responsible for these declines.
- Sales and listings drops were widespread. Transactions dropped in 25 of our 30 markets in July, including 17 areas where the monthly decline exceeded 5 per cent. Volumes were below year-earlier levels in 26 areas. Listings dropped in July in 26 jurisdictions but remained above year-earlier volumes in 24 areas. Many markets continued to cool last month as the sales-to-listing ratio dipped in 19 areas. For the second straight month we identify 20 markets as “balanced.” Falling listings have contributed to sellers’ markets in three Atlantic cities and in Saguenay. Buyers’ conditions prevail in six areas. Prices are clearly softening; only Trois-Rivières and Sherbrooke saw at least 20 per cent year-over-year price growth in July, far fewer cities than earlier this year.
- For the second straight month, sales fell in each of Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal during July, but all declines were in single digits. Drops ranged from 4 per cent in Calgary to 9 per cent in Vancouver. Sales remain historically varied; Calgary’s transactions hover well above their 10-year average, and Montréal’s are near this standard—but volumes in Toronto and Vancouver trail it significantly.
- July listings eased in all four cities. Montréal’s 9 per cent drop was the largest. Calgary and Vancouver posted declines near 5 per cent, while Toronto’s was 3 per cent. Montréal’s listings were well above year-earlier levels, but Vancouver’s were down slightly. Volumes in Calgary and Toronto were little changed from July 2021. Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal remain balanced markets, but Toronto is in a buyers’ state.
- The average resale price fell nearly 4 per cent in Montréal and almost 3 per cent in Toronto during July. Calgary’s value was down about 1 per cent, but Vancouver’s was up by the same amount. Still, modest year-over-year price growth continues in all four cities. Montréal’s 6 per cent jump leads the increases, while Vancouver posted a 5 per cent increase. Calgary’s price was up 4 per cent, while Toronto’s was up 2 per cent.
Recent Market Performance
| Sales Falling |
Sales Rising |
|
|---|---|---|
| Price Rising |
|
|
| Price Falling |
|
|
Note: Sales and prices are the average month-to-month change during latest three months.
Forecast of Near-Term Price Growth
(year-over-year)
7% +
Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Kingston, Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières Saguenay, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax
5–6.9%
Victoria, Winnipeg, St. Catharines, Guelph, London, Windsor, Newfoundland and Labrador
3–4.9%
Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, Hamilton
0–2.9%
Edmonton, Toronto, Oshawa, Kitchener, Ottawa
Falling
—
July’s 5 per cent dip in national existing home sales was the fifth straight monthly drop.
Resale Indicators for July 2022
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | ||||||||
| Market1 | Market classification | Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Balanced market range3 |
Price ($) | ||
| 5,700 | 11,808 | 960,978 | ||||||
| Victoria | Balanced | –2.1 | –2.0 | 0.491 | 0.487-0.773 | –6.0 | ||
| –35.2 | 16.7 | 6.3 | ||||||
| 24,048 | 52,404 | 1,240,488 | ||||||
| Vancouver | Balanced | –9.0 | –4.8 | 0.446 | 0.439-0.719 | 1.2 | ||
| –40.4 | –5.6 | 4.7 | ||||||
| 12,180 | 27,552 | 1,032,489 | ||||||
| Fraser Valley (4) | Balanced | –7.4 | –7.6 | 0.442 | 0.442-0.719 | –2.0 | ||
| –47.1 | 2.2 | 4.3 | ||||||
| 33,720 | 47,748 | 515,261 | ||||||
| Calgary | Balanced | –4.2 | –5.1 | 0.732 | 0.466-0.737 | –1.4 | ||
| –2.6 | 1.7 | 3.6 | ||||||
| 24,180 | 47,124 | 401,274 | ||||||
| Edmonton | Balanced | –8.1 | –2.0 | 0.522 | 0.452-0.729 | –1.5 | ||
| –4.4 | 11.6 | 2.3 | ||||||
| 4,440 | 7,056 | 336,313 | ||||||
| Regina | Balanced | –3.1 | –6.7 | 0.608 | 0.492-0.751 | 4.1 | ||
| –2.1 | 3.0 | 5.3 | ||||||
| 6,516 | 10,800 | 358,080 | ||||||
| Saskatoon | Balanced | –0.7 | –11.2 | 0.600 | 0.428-0.681 | –1.8 | ||
| –6.5 | –1.5 | 3.6 | ||||||
| 14,928 | 21,912 | 369,466 | ||||||
| Winnipeg | Balanced | 1.6 | –7.6 | 0.684 | 0.453-0.795 | –4.0 | ||
| –0.7 | 12.4 | 5.9 | ||||||
| 2,244 | 3,396 | 322,088 | ||||||
| Thunder Bay | Balanced | –2.1 | 8.8 | 0.675 | 0.501-0.768 | –4.0 | ||
| 10.0 | 30.4 | 10.6 | ||||||
| 2,928 | 4,380 | 447,897 | ||||||
| Sudbury | Balanced | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.662 | 0.347-0.675 | 1.2 | ||
| 0.0 | 20.5 | 18.2 | ||||||
| 63,492 | 153,708 | 1,108,158 | ||||||
| Toronto | Buyers’ | –7.3 | –2.7 | 0.402 | 0.465-0.691 | –2.6 | ||
| –45.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | ||||||
| 8,304 | 17,136 | 918,675 | ||||||
| Oshawa | Buyers’ | –8.8 | –8.3 | 0.463 | 0.480-0.755 | –5.1 | ||
| –35.3 | 20.8 | –0.3 | ||||||
| 9,528 | 20,916 | 891,415 | ||||||
| Hamilton | Balanced | 4.2 | –7.6 | 0.441 | 0.438-0.802 | –5.6 | ||
| –33.2 | 22.3 | 4.4 | ||||||
| 2,052 | 6,012 | 779,427 | ||||||
| St. Catharines | Buyers’ | –7.1 | –5.1 | 0.354 | 0.397-0.722 | 2.9 | ||
| –49.0 | 24.3 | 7.4 | ||||||
| 6,600 | 15,108 | 774,321 | ||||||
| Kitchener | Buyers’ | –10.7 | –5.3 | 0.417 | 0.485-0.770 | –4.2 | ||
| –35.2 | 40.4 | –1.9 | ||||||
| 2,280 | 5,292 | 896,705 | ||||||
| Guelph | Buyers | –5.5 | 4.5 | 0.437 | 0.508-0.839 | –4.0 | ||
| –36.2 | 26.0 | 8.8 | ||||||
| 6,696 | 15,792 | 694,714 | ||||||
| London | balanced | 1.5 | –3.2 | 0.419 | 0.418-0.719 | 2.6 | ||
| –40.8 | 19.1 | 8.9 | ||||||
| 5,088 | 14,304 | 573,455 | ||||||
| Windsor | Buyers’ | –15.2 | –1.7 | 0.360 | 0.439-0.689 | –4.4 | ||
| –33.1 | 28.4 | 5.4 | ||||||
| 2,976 | 6,336 | 647,481 | ||||||
| Kingston | Balanced | 9.7 | –7.7 | 0.468 | 0.362-0.673 | 0.8 | ||
| –25.7 | 29.4 | 11.4 | ||||||
| 13,356 | 26,472 | 667,101 | ||||||
| Ottawa | Balanced | –3.8 | –1.2 | 0.507 | 0.417-0.718 | –1.6 | ||
| –34.5 | –3.0 | 4.3 | ||||||
| 4,526 | 7,707 | 448,373 | ||||||
| Gatineau | Balanced | –9.9 | –7.4 | 0.588 | 0.447-0.759 | –2.7 | ||
| –18.0 | 28.3 | 11.3 | ||||||
| 44,167 | 75,909 | 571,926 | ||||||
| Montréal | Balanced | –6.7 | –8.8 | 0.578 | 0.482-0.734 | –3.7 | ||
| –18.0 | 22.2 | 6.5 | ||||||
| 8,049 | 12,907 | 360,400 | ||||||
| Québec City | Balanced | –15.5 | –10.2 | 0.591 | 0.501-0.787 | 2.4 | ||
| 1.5 | 46.3 | 13.0 | ||||||
| 1,950 | 3,126 | 436,156 | ||||||
| Sherbrooke | Balanced | –16.0 | –7.3 | 0.590 | 0.451-0.781 | 4.0 | ||
| –23.1 | 24.9 | 20.2 | ||||||
| 1,513 | 2,163 | 305,506 | ||||||
| Trois–Rivières | Balanced | –8.7 | 0.9 | 0.691 | 0.479-0.820 | –0.8 | ||
| –2.4 | 39.7 | 39.3 | ||||||
| 1,266 | 1,525 | 253,109 | ||||||
| Saguenay | Sellers’ | –4.8 | –17.6 | 0.853 | 0.429-0.765 | 1.2 | ||
| 6.3 | 13.0 | 15.6 | ||||||
| 2,472 | 3,252 | 276,437 | ||||||
| Saint John | Sellers’ | –17.3 | –6.9 | 0.797 | 0.354-0.665 | –6.2 | ||
| –18.6 | –5.6 | 12.2 | ||||||
| 3,708 | 5,220 | 327,007 | ||||||
| Moncton | Sellers’ | –10.7 | –17.0 | 0.692 | 0.384-0.685 | –0.4 | ||
| –11.7 | 0.5 | 18.2 | ||||||
| 5,700 | 7,716 | 520,882 | ||||||
| Halifax | Balanced | –10.5 | –7.9 | 0.768 | 0.445-0.862 | –2.5 | ||
| –19.5 | –10.4 | 12.9 | ||||||
| 6,312 | 9,144 | 298,299 | ||||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | Sellers’ | –1.9 | –7.3 | 0.700 | 0.346-0.595 | 1.1 | ||
| (province) | –11.0 | –13.7 | 8.8 | |||||
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.