Markets Stayed Strong in November
Metropolitan Resale Snapshot
Key Findings
- Housing resale volumes rose 1.0 per cent nationally in January, following a small decline in December. January’s level was the second highest on record for that month, behind only the 2021 figure. Sales were likely limited by an 11 per cent decline in the supply of listings. Apart from a decline in volumes in 2020 when the COVID pandemic first hit, listings have not been lower since July 2005.
- Despite the advance at the national level, sales were down between December and January in 17 of our 30 markets and were below year-earlier levels in 21 areas. Listings, meanwhile, were off in 24 markets during January, including 20 that saw declines of at least 5 per cent. Listings were below year-earlier levels in 20 markets. Most markets became even tighter in January, as the sales-to-listing ratio rose in 24 areas. And 28 markets were in sellers’ territory, up from 22 in December. Red hot price growth persists—17 markets saw year-over-year price growth of at least 20 per cent, matching December’s total.
- January sales rose in Vancouver and Calgary but fell in Toronto and Montréal. Vancouver’s increase was near 8 per cent, while Calgary’s was 15 per cent. Montréal’s drop was just over 9 per cent; Toronto’s was minimal. Calgary’s increase lifted sales to their second consecutive record high, but volumes in the other three markets remain below their year-earlier levels.
- Listings rose in Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal during January but fell in Toronto. The increases were 6 per cent in Vancouver and 1 per cent in both Calgary and Montréal. Toronto’s decline was 26 per cent. For the seventh consecutive month, listings were below year-earlier levels in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal, but up in Calgary. All four of these markets are in sellers’ territory.
- The average resale price leapt almost 7 per cent in Toronto during January and by more than 6 per cent in Calgary. Gains were just above 3 per cent in Montréal and about 2 per cent in Vancouver. In recent months, the pace of year-over-year price growth has generally accelerated in Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto but stabilized (albeit at a high level) in Montréal. Annual advances range from just under 10 per cent in Calgary to over 28 per cent in Toronto.
Recent Market Performance
*Average month-to-month change during latest three months
Forecast of Near-Term Price Growth
(year-over-year)
+7%
Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Trois-Rivières, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax
5–6.9%
Regina, Saskatoon, Québec, Sherbrooke, Saguenay, Newfoundland
3–4.9%
Edmonton
0–2.9%
None
Falling
None
Apart from a decline in volumes in 2020 when the COVID pandemic first hit, listings have not been lower since July 2005.
Resale Indicators for January 2022
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | ||||||||
| Market1 | Market classification | Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Balanced market range3 |
Price ($) |
||
| Victoria | Buyers’ | 8,976 | 9,996 | 0.883 | 0.486–0.774 | 1,000,576 | ||
| m/m % | 7.8 | –9.7 | –2.6 | |||||
| y/y % | –22.6 | –25.0 | 14.6 | |||||
| Vancouver | Sellers’ | 46,332 | 63,804 | 0.746 | 0.439–0.720 | 1,288,659 | ||
| 7.8 | 6.4 | 2.4 | ||||||
| –3.0 | –6.8 | 16.3 | ||||||
| Fraser Valley 4 | Sellers‚’ | 23,856 | 29,688 | 0.793 | 0.442–0.720 | 1,227,196 | ||
| –5.5 | –12.8 | 7.3 | ||||||
| –20.7 | –21.1 | 30.0 | ||||||
| Calgary | Sellers’ | 51,312 | 46,452 | 1.107 | 0.463–0.736 | 533,834 | ||
| 15.0 | 1.1 | 6.4 | ||||||
| 59.0 | 5.6 | 9.6 | ||||||
| Edmonton | Sellers’ | 30,816 | 39,468 | 0.805 | 0.450–0.729 | 391,942 | ||
| 2.6 | –4.0 | –0.1 | ||||||
| 9.0 | –8.7 | 1.6 | ||||||
| Regina | Balanced | 4,080 | 6,096 | 0.647 | 0.491–0.751 | 339,501 | ||
| –5.6 | –7.6 | –2.1 | ||||||
| –12.1 | –1.0 | 16.9 | ||||||
| Saskatoon | Sellers’ | 6,348 | 9,552 | 0.693 | 0.426–0.679 | 345,574 | ||
| –6.5 | –7.2 | –3.1 | ||||||
| –7.0 | –21.5 | 1.3 | ||||||
| Winnipeg | Sellers’ | 13,092 | 14,136 | 0.931 | 0.450–0.795 | 371,590 | ||
| –23.9 | –26.0 | 3.3 | ||||||
| –27.2 | –32.6 | 11.0 | ||||||
| Thunder Bay | Sellers’ | 2,808 | 2,652 | 1.038 | 0.498–0.766 | 358,195 | ||
| 8.3 | –15.3 | 9.5 | ||||||
| 21.9 | 6.8 | 30.2 | ||||||
| Sudbury | Sellers’ | 3,600 | 3,876 | 0.926 | 0.345–0.670 | 475,708 | ||
| 4.5 | –9.5 | 9.4 | ||||||
| –3.2 | 8.4 | 28.9 | ||||||
| Toronto | Sellers’ | 115,224 | 135,840 | 0.777 | 0.467–0.692 | 1,290,297 | ||
| –0.7 | –26.4 | 6.9 | ||||||
| –16.7 | –12.9 | 28.4 | ||||||
| Oshawa | Sellers’ | 12,300 | 16,800 | 0.783 | 0.481–0.756 | 1,160,915 | ||
| –8.6 | 1.9 | 14.2 | ||||||
| –4.2 | –7.6 | 34.4 | ||||||
| Hamilton | Sellers’ | 14,556 | 13,212 | 0.978 | 0.438–0.804 | 1,069,774 | ||
| –7.5 | –37.1 | 9.4 | ||||||
| –13.0 | –11.2 | 34.4 | ||||||
| St. Catharines | Sellers’ | 3,456 | 3,756 | 0.848 | 0.398–0.723 | 872,278 | ||
| –11.7 | –31.4 | 12.9 | ||||||
| –23.0 | –21.0 | 25.6 | ||||||
| Kitchener | Sellers’ | 11,256 | 11,904 | 0.839 | 0.485–0.771 | 969,384 | ||
| 4.5 | –8.1 | 12.2 | ||||||
| 7.7 | 22.5 | 39.0 | ||||||
| Guelph | Sellers’ | 3,816 | 3,948 | 0.949 | 0.510–0.841 | 1,087,196 | ||
| 11.6 | –17.3 | 15.3 | ||||||
| 4.3 | 0.0 | 41.4 | ||||||
| London | Sellers’ | 11,496 | 11,472 | 0.929 | 0.418–0.719 | 762,801 | ||
| –1.9 | –15.4 | 7.7 | ||||||
| 0.8 | 8.5 | 28.4 | ||||||
| Windsor | Sellers’ | 9,120 | 10,332 | 0.803 | 0.439–0.691 | 596,874 | ||
| –3.6 | –7.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
| 7.0 | 15.4 | 25.1 | ||||||
| Kingston | Sellers’ | 4,140 | 3,756 | 0.982 | 0.362–0.670 | 668,419 | ||
| 3.6 | –20.6 | 9.9 | ||||||
| –6.8 | 1.3 | 27.0 | ||||||
| Ottawa | Sellers’ | 21,696 | 23,904 | 0.863 | 0.415–0.718 | 692,830 | ||
| 7.3 | –3.4 | 4.1 | ||||||
| –0.8 | 2.8 | 14.8 | ||||||
| Gatineau | Sellers’ | 5,499 | 5,499 | 0.956 | 0.444–0.759 | 467,094 | ||
| –14.7 | –9.2 | 4.7 | ||||||
| –15.6 | –6.9 | 36.1 | ||||||
| Montréal | Sellers’ | 46,720 | 53,588 | 0.835 | 0.480–0.732 | 576,363 | ||
| –9.4 | 1.0 | 3.5 | ||||||
| –27.2 | –2.5 | 15.3 | ||||||
| Québec City | Sellers’ | 9,673 | 9,489 | 0.993 | 0.499–0.784 | 339,484 | ||
| –7.2 | –4.6 | 1.0 | ||||||
| –17.3 | –2.7 | 8.3 | ||||||
| Sherbrooke | Sellers’ | 2,197 | 2,081 | 1.017 | 0.447–0.776 | 382,379 | ||
| 4.4 | 0.7 | –0.1 | ||||||
| –24.4 | –22.0 | 18.4 | ||||||
| Trois–Rivières | Sellers’ | 1,504 | 1,421 | 1.093 | 0.474–0.820 | 278,810 | ||
| –14.7 | –0.9 | 0.5 | ||||||
| –13.3 | 12.0 | 29.6 | ||||||
| Saguenay | Sellers’ | 1,886 | 1,600 | 1.119 | 0.428–0.755 | 238,734 | ||
| 3.4 | –18.4 | –2.5 | ||||||
| 17.6 | –10.1 | 11.7 | ||||||
| Saint John | Sellers’ | 3,012 | 1,896 | 1.185 | 0.354–0.657 | 262,513 | ||
| –3.8 | –51.2 | 5.2 | ||||||
| –11.6 | –20.2 | 31.9 | ||||||
| Moncton | Sellers’ | 4,284 | 3,588 | 1.091 | 0.381–0.682 | 344,753 | ||
| –1.1 | –21.9 | 9.0 | ||||||
| –11.0 | –22.1 | 42.0 | ||||||
| Halifax | Sellers’ | 6,720 | 5,856 | 1.047 | 0.442–0.862 | 562,778 | ||
| –2.3 | –19.9 | 13.2 | ||||||
| –26.0 | –19.6 | 29.2 | ||||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | Sellers’ | 8,676 | 9,276 | 0.896 | 0.344–0.590 | 276,024 | ||
| (province) | 19.3 | 6.5 | 0.4 | |||||
| 31.0 | –7.6 | 7.9 | ||||||
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
About the Metro Resale Snapshot
The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.
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