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Metropolitan Resale Snapshot

Homebuyers Welcome February Listings Hike

March 22, 2022

Key Findings

  • A 24 per cent rise in national listings helped sales of existing homes to rise nearly 5 per cent in February, building on a 1 per cent gain in January. February’s level was the second highest on record for that month, behind only the February 2021 figure. Listings nonetheless remain scarce, having trailed year-earlier levels for seven consecutive months, and the currently strong market should have no difficulty absorbing further listings increases over the near term at least.
  • Hikes at the national level in both listings and sales were widely reflected. Importantly, listings rose between January and February in all 30 of our markets, with all but Thunder Bay enjoying a 5 per cent advance or better. Still, listings trailed year-earlier levels in 17 markets. Sales, meanwhile, increased in 20 markets during February, but remained below year-earlier levels in 20 areas. Most markets slackened modestly in February as the sales-to-listing ratio fell in 26 areas. This cut the number of markets in sellers’ territory to 23, down from 28 in January. Red-hot price growth continues. Sixteen markets saw year-over-year price growth of at least 20 per cent in February, although this was down from 17 per cent in January.
  • February sales rose in Toronto, Montréal, and Calgary but fell in Vancouver. Hikes in Calgary and Montréal exceeded 10 per cent, while Toronto’s increase was near 6 per cent. Calgary’s increase put sales there at their second-straight record high—and more than twice their 10-year average. But volumes in the other three markets remain below year-earlier levels.
  • In February, listings rose sharply in Calgary and Toronto but more modestly in Montréal and Vancouver. The increases were 65 per cent in Calgary, 43 per cent in Toronto, 13 per cent in Montréal, and 6 per cent in Vancouver. The increase in Calgary’s listings put them well above year-earlier levels, while Vancouver’s hike put listings there above year-earlier levels for the first time in three months. Annual declines continued in Toronto and Montréal. Montréal and Calgary faced sellers’ conditions, while the Vancouver and Toronto markets were balanced.
  • The average resale price rose more than 4 per cent in both Calgary and Montréal in February. It was Montréal’s strongest monthly gain in over a year. Increases were about 1 per cent in Toronto and 2 per cent in Vancouver. During recent months, the pace of year-over-year price growth has surged in Calgary and accelerated more modestly in Vancouver and Montréal. Toronto’s increases have stabilized at a high level. Annual advances range from about 15 per cent in Calgary to 27 per cent in Toronto.
See available data

Recent Market Performance

Sales
Falling		 Sales
Rising
Price
Rising
  • Halifax
  • St. John
  • Winnipeg
  • Fraser Valley
  • Montréal
  • Trois-Rivières
  • Moncton
  • Newfoundland
  • Calgary
  • Edmonton
  • Hamilton
  • Kitchener
  • Guelph
  • London
  • Ottawa
  • Oshawa
  • St. Catharines
  • Sudbury
  • Thunder Bay
  • Toronto
  • Vancouver
  • Victoria
  • Windsor
  • Kingston
  • Gatineau
  • Saguenay
Price
Falling
  • Regina
  • Saskatoon
  • Sherbrooke
  • —

Note: Sales and prices are the average month-to-month change during latest three months.

Forecast of Near-Term Price Growth

(year-over-year)

7% +

Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Québec, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax, Newfoundland

5–6.9%

Sherbrooke

3–4.9%

Regina, Saskatoon

0–2.9%

—

Falling

—

Listings remain scarce despite February’s increase.

Resale Indicators for March 2022

Market1 Market classification Sales (#)2 Listings (#) Level Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Balanced market range3		 Price ($)
Victoria Sellers’ 9,324 11,256 0.785 0.487–0.775 1,048,852
m/m %   2.4 9.2     4.4
y/y %   –16 –7.9     20.0
Vancouver Balanced 44,412 71,268 0.635 0.439–0.719 1,324,802
    –2.9 5.7     2.2
    –9.1 7.9     16.9
Fraser Valley4 Balanced 22,200 46,896 0.492 0.442–0.720 1,253,132
    –5.0 53.4     2.6
    –35 15.8     34.7
Calgary Sellers’ 60,396 76,224 0.809 0.463–0.737 560,532
    15.4 65.2     4.1
    73.7 51.4     14.7
Edmonton Sellers’ 38,232 45,588 0.821 0.451–0.730 426,465
    18.6 14.6     8.8
    35.3 9.7     10
Regina Balanced 4,776 6,552 0.747 0.491–0.752 310,238
    15.4 8.8     –7.8
    9.0 –1.4     2.4
Saskatoon Balanced 6,636 11,292 0.602 0.426–0.679 358,896
    5.1 18.5     3.7
    –14.3 –5.2     4.8
Winnipeg Sellers’ 15,336 17,004 0.889 0.451–0.795 388,728
    15.4 13.3     4.3
    –19.4 –22.7     15.9
Thunder Bay Sellers’ 2,712 2,736 1.004 0.498–0.768 337,757
    –3.4 2.7     –6.3
    8.1 –8.8     16.2
Sudbury Sellers’ 3,864 4,704 0.837 0.346–0.671 521,568
    6.6 18.8     9.0
    0.3 11.0     38.6
Toronto Balanced 125,628 190,680 0.642 0.467–0.693 1,304,816
    5.9 42.9     1.3
    –15.2 –5.1     27.3
Oshawa Sellers’ 14,640 18,612 0.776 0.481–0.756 1,167,232
    18.3 5.2     1.1
    –19.4 –21.1     36.4
Hamilton Balanced 16,944 22,872 0.770 0.438–0.804 1,056,342
    14.8 72.6     –0.7
    –4.3 0.6     29.2
St. Catharines Sellers’ 4,320 5,628 0.780 0.398–0.724 942,247
    27.7 53.8     9.2
    –3.7 9.8     27.6
Kitchener Sellers’ 11,868 14,364 0.836 0.486–0.772 989,303
    2.5 16.3     2.6
    2.1 1.4     33.7
Guelph Sellers’ 4,164 4,968 0.866 0.510–0.841 1,003,645
    5.8 21.1     –7.5
    –8.7 –4.6     30.7
London Sellers’ 12,900 15,312 0.845 0.418–0.720 784,737
    8.7 30.7     3.7
    1.8 9.2     32.7
Windsor Sellers’ 9,996 12,204 0.829 0.439–0.692 672,639
    8.5 15.8     11
    17.7 20.8     46.7
Kingston Sellers’ 4,356 4,896 0.910 0.362–0.672 703,011
    4.3 28.7     5.8
    –9.3 –24.4     25.6
Ottawa Sellers’ 22,932 28,044 0.836 0.415–0.719 719,746
    4.2 13.7     3.2
    1.8 14.1     16.4
Gatineau Sellers’ 5,828 6,425 0.914 0.444–0.761 484,471
    6.6 14.4     2.8
    –18.1 –4.3     32
Montréal Sellers’ 52,323 61,522 0.793 0.480–0.733 601,984
    12.7 13.3     4.2
    –13.4 –4.8     17.7
Québec City Sellers’ 10,598 11,040 0.935 0.499–0.785 351,991
    9.1 14.5     3.4
    –9.2 –11.7     10.4
Sherbrooke Sellers’ 1,977 2,498 0.850 0.448–0.776 400,031
    –9.2 17.9     4.4
    –24.4 –13.3     5.0
Trois–Rivières Sellers’ 1,445 1,522 0.941 0.475–0.821 286,788
    –2.7 7.2     2.4
    –2.7 –9.7     28.7
Saguenay Sellers’ 1,630 1,705 0.964 0.428–0.758 237,714
    –12.8 6.3     –0.3
    –15.1 –10.4     10.7
Saint John Balanced 2,304 3,444 0.625 0.354–0.657 299,237
    –21 79.4     14.3
    –31.9 14.3     36.3
Moncton Sellers’ 3,816 4,704 0.886 0.381–0.683 344,292
    –9.7 22.5     1.6
    –21.3 –8.2     39.9
Halifax Sellers’ 5,904 7,140 0.870 0.442–0.862 589,538
    –10.1 19.5     5.8
    –37.2 –9.8     31.1
Newfoundland and Labrador Sellers’ 7,500 10,608 0.739 0.344–0.591 274,803
(province)   –13.6 10.8     –0.2
    16.2 2.6     5.9

1   For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2   Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3   Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4   Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.

The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.

Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.