Metropolitan Resale Snapshot
Markets Surge in October
December 2, 2021
Key Findings
- Canada’s existing housing sales rose nearly 9 per cent in October to hit a six-month high. Resale conditions appear to have regained last spring’s strength—October’s volume jump was the largest since July 2020. Strong housing demand continues pick up any gains in supply, thanks to low interest rates. National listings rose 3 per cent last month.
- October sales were up in 26 of our 30 markets, but remained below year-earlier levels in 19. This is an improvement from September, when 26 jurisdictions reported a year-over-year decline. Listings perked up, too, rising in 22 of 30 markets during October. Of these, 11 posted a gain of at least 5 per cent. Listings nonetheless remained below year-earlier levels in 21 markets.
- Many markets continued to tighten—the sales-to-listings ratio rose in 18 jurisdictions during October. The number of markets in sellers’ territory rose to 24 last month from 21 in September. Such firming means that 15 markets are now experiencing year-over-year price growth of at least 20 per cent, up from 13 in September. October sales rose in each of Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal. Toronto’s 10 per cent increase led the gains, while Vancouver’s hike was 7.8 per cent. Increases were more modest in Calgary and Montréal. Sales in all four markets remained significantly below earlier-year highs.
- Listings fell in Vancouver and Montréal during October but rose in Calgary and Toronto. Montréal’s decline was 4.3 per cent, while Vancouver’s easing was near 2 per cent. Both Calgary and Toronto saw listings increase 4–5 per cent. Listings were below year-earlier levels in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal, but higher in Calgary. Toronto, Montréal, and Calgary are sellers’ markets. Vancouver is balanced.
- The average resale price rose at least 2 per cent in Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal during October, but was up only 1.5 per cent in Toronto. The pace of year-over-year price growth picked up in all four cities and was in double-digits in all but Calgary, where the gain was 4.7 per cent.
Recent Market Performance
| Sales Falling |
Sales Rising |
|
|---|---|---|
| Price Rising |
|
|
| Price Falling |
|
|
Note: Sales and prices are the average month-to-month change during latest three months.
Forecast of Near-Term Price Growth
(year-over-year)
7% +
Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton,
St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saguenay, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax, Newfoundland and Labrador
5–6.9%
Regina, Winnipeg, Calgary
3–4.9%
Saskatoon
0–2.9%
Edmonton
Falling
None
Listings were below year-earlier levels in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal, but higher in Calgary.
Resale Indicators for October 2021
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | ||||||||
| Market1 | Market classification | Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Balanced market range3 |
Price ($) | ||
| Victoria | Sellers’ | 8,880 | 10,632 | 0.813 | 0.486–0.772 | 975,612 | ||
| m/m % | 1.2 | 0.3 | 10.0 | |||||
| y/y % | –19.8 | –23.8 | 23.9 | |||||
| Vancouver | Balanced | 42,696 | 56,100 | 0.717 | 0.438–0.719 | 1,213,148 | ||
| 7.8 | –2.4 | 2.5 | ||||||
| 1.9 | –18.9 | 10.4 | ||||||
| Fraser Valley4 | Sellers’ | 23,640 | 28,008 | 0.818 | 0.441–0.718 | 1,063,264 | ||
| 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.6 | ||||||
| –8.7 | –20.5 | 23.1 | ||||||
| Calgary | Sellers’ | 36,552 | 46,596 | 0.784 | 0.465–0.728 | 498,294 | ||
| 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.0 | ||||||
| 28.9 | 6.4 | 4.7 | ||||||
| Edmonton | Balanced | 28,356 | 42,324 | 0.682 | 0.452–0.710 | 386,355 | ||
| 14.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | ||||||
| 17.2 | –0.5 | –0.8 | ||||||
| Regina | Balanced | 4,176 | 7,260 | 0.574 | 0.490–0.751 | 329,302 | ||
| 9.4 | 6.1 | 0.9 | ||||||
| –5.9 | 11.0 | 7.2 | ||||||
| Saskatoon | Balanced | 7,152 | 11,232 | 0.638 | 0.426–0.679 | 351,690 | ||
| 10.6 | 9.0 | 6.0 | ||||||
| 1.4 | –1.8 | 4.1 | ||||||
| Winnipeg | Balanced | 17,472 | 22,224 | 0.772 | 0.449–0.792 | 354,822 | ||
| 15.1 | 17.1 | 3.4 | ||||||
| 3.5 | 5.3 | 7.7 | ||||||
| Thunder Bay | Sellers’ | 2,628 | 2,832 | 0.915 | 0.498–0.761 | 301,103 | ||
| 17.7 | –0.4 | 3.1 | ||||||
| 3.3 | 3.1 | 7.2 | ||||||
| Sudbury | Sellers’ | 3,000 | 3,492 | 0.830 | 0.344–0.679 | 433,131 | ||
| 6.4 | 8.6 | 8.0 | ||||||
| –6.7 | –6.4 | 33.0 | ||||||
| Toronto | Sellers’ | 116,592 | 142,572 | 0.805 | 0.466–0.691 | 1,141,524 | ||
| 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | ||||||
| 0.0 | –27.3 | 19.5 | ||||||
| Oshawa | Sellers’ | 12,372 | 13,716 | 0.886 | 0.480–0.755 | 994,403 | ||
| 9.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | ||||||
| –18.6 | –24.5 | 33.6 | ||||||
| Hamilton | Sellers’ | 15,096 | 17,148 | 0.849 | 0.437–0.801 | 932,808 | ||
| 8.0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | ||||||
| –12.0 | –16.0 | 27.4 | ||||||
| St. Catharines | Sellers’ | 4,464 | 4,536 | 0.972 | 0.397–0.721 | 780,917 | ||
| 12.7 | –9.6 | 5.7 | ||||||
| –4.1 | –17.6 | 33.2 | ||||||
| Kitchener | Sellers’ | 10,332 | 11,592 | 0.869 | 0.484–0.769 | 850,840 | ||
| 30.7 | 6.5 | 7.2 | ||||||
| –5.6 | –12.1 | 34.5 | ||||||
| Guelph | Sellers’ | 3,600 | 4,200 | 0.858 | 0.509–0.839 | 902,485 | ||
| 8.7 | 21.1 | 9.0 | ||||||
| –14.0 | –14.4 | 31.7 | ||||||
| London | Sellers’ | 11,364 | 12,996 | 0.839 | 0.418–0.716 | 675,565 | ||
| 7.1 | 0.7 | 4.4 | ||||||
| –1.7 | –7.4 | 27.0 | ||||||
| Windsor | Sellers’ | 8,280 | 11,244 | 0.716 | 0.439–0.689 | 555,062 | ||
| 5.3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||||||
| –2.8 | 10.9 | 29.1 | ||||||
| Kingston | Sellers’ | 4,200 | 5,088 | 0.800 | 0.361–0.666 | 624,744 | ||
| 15.9 | –8.8 | 4.2 | ||||||
| –19.7 | –18.5 | 26.1 | ||||||
| Ottawa | Sellers’ | 20,004 | 25,992 | 0.766 | 0.414–0.715 | 658,111 | ||
| 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | ||||||
| –19.5 | –19.5 | 17.0 | ||||||
| Gatineau | Sellers’ | 5,566 | 6,399 | 0.876 | 0.444–0.751 | 422,000 | ||
| –3.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | ||||||
| –20.8 | –19.7 | 27.6 | ||||||
| Montréal | Sellers’ | 50,189 | 59,170 | 0.841 | 0.479–0.724 | 547,282 | ||
| 2.6 | –4.3 | 2.5 | ||||||
| –25.7 | –24.3 | 15.5 | ||||||
| Quebéc City | Sellers’ | 9,550 | 10,207 | 0.917 | 0.499–0.774 | 328,874 | ||
| –3.4 | –6.8 | –1.2 | ||||||
| –25.4 | –19.2 | 10.0 | ||||||
| Sherbrooke | Sellers’ | 2,285 | 2,304 | 0.965 | 0.447–0.768 | 384,327 | ||
| –0.1 | –1.8 | 10.3 | ||||||
| –25.0 | –17.8 | 16.2 | ||||||
| Trois-Rivières | Balanced | 1,498 | 1,927 | 0.771 | 0.476–0.806 | 243,565 | ||
| 0.7 | 20.0 | –4.3 | ||||||
| –8.0 | 23.8 | 18.9 | ||||||
| Saguenay | Sellers’ | 1,582 | 1,875 | 0.857 | 0.429–0.743 | 233,621 | ||
| 5.6 | 10.6 | 6.0 | ||||||
| 1.3 | 3.0 | 13.5 | ||||||
| Saint John | Sellers’ | 3,228 | 4,284 | 0.802 | 0.355–0.645 | 278,992 | ||
| 14.0 | 24.4 | 2.1 | ||||||
| 5.5 | 15.2 | 31.3 | ||||||
| Moncton | Sellers’ | 4,908 | 5,136 | 0.925 | 0.382–0.672 | 287,887 | ||
| 9.4 | 5.2 | –0.8 | ||||||
| 8.2 | 8.9 | 23.1 | ||||||
| Halifax | Sellers’ | 6,828 | 8,052 | 0.865 | 0.437–0.838 | 497,350 | ||
| 1.2 | –0.4 | 4.9 | ||||||
| –28.0 | –24.2 | 24.6 | ||||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | Sellers’ | 6,480 | 10,044 | 0.662 | 0.345–0.584 | 277,136 | ||
| (province) | –9.8 | 4.8 | 0.9 | |||||
| 10.7 | –5.7 | 8.6 | ||||||
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.