Metropolitan Resale Snapshot
Markets Remain Strong in September
October 21, 2021
Key Findings
- Canada’s existing housing markets strengthened last month but remained below the record for September set last year. Still, last month’s volume was the second-busiest September on record. While resale conditions appear to have stabilized, demand remains high and supply low.
- Sales rose from August in 19 of our 30 markets. But 26 markets remained below year-earlier levels—the same as August—and the most to report a year-over-year decline since COVID-19’s intrusion in the spring of 2020. Listings continued to ease, declining in 22 markets during September, including 10 where the drop was at least 5 per cent. This supply was below year-earlier levels in 23 markets.
- Many markets are thus tightening—the sales-to-listing ratio rose in 20 jurisdictions during September. The number of markets in sellers’ territory rose from 17 in August to 21 last month. And the number of markets experiencing year-over-year price growth of at least 20 per cent rose from nine in August to 13 in September.
- September sales rose in Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal but fell in Vancouver. While gains in Toronto and Montréal halted a string of monthly declines, Vancouver’s drop was its sixth straight. Calgary’s increase was its second in a row. Sales in all four markets are well off highs seen earlier this year.
- Listings fell less than 6 per cent in Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto during September, but rose 3 per cent in Montréal. Listings were below year-earlier levels in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal but higher in Calgary. Toronto, Montréal, and Calgary remain in sellers’ states. Vancouver is balanced.
- Toronto’s average price rose in September, but Vancouver, Calgary, and Montréal saw little change in prices. The pace of year-over-year price growth eased in Vancouver but picked up in Toronto. Only Toronto and Montréal have double-digit price growth. Calgary’s average price rose only 3.3 per cent year-over-year in September.
Recent Market Performance
| Sales Falling |
Sales Rising |
|
|---|---|---|
| Price Rising |
|
|
| Price Falling |
|
|
Note: Sales and prices are the average month-to-month change during latest three months.
Forecast of Near-Term Price Growth
(year-over-year)
7% +
Fraser Valley, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax
5–6.9%
Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Saguenay, Newfoundland and Labrador
3–4.9%
Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg
0–2.9%
Saskatoon
Falling
—
Only Toronto and Montréal saw double-digit price growth in September.
Resale Indicators for September 2021
| Market1 | Market classification | Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Sales-to-new-listings ratio Balanced market range3 |
Price ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | Sellers’ | 8,760 | 10,428 | 0.865 | 0.485–0.771 | 877,396 |
| m/m % | –1.1 | –4.4 | –0.1 | |||
| y/y % | –19.1 | –19.3 | 5.7 | |||
| Vancouver | Balanced | 38,376 | 57,360 | 0.667 | 0.437–0.718 | 1,178,068 |
| –1.2 | –1.8 | –0.1 | ||||
| –11.8 | –9.8 | 6.5 | ||||
| Fraser Valley4 | Sellers’ | 21,924 | 25,824 | 0.83 | 0.441–0.717 | 1,013,218 |
| –9.1 | –6.2 | 1.5 | ||||
| –12.5 | –23.6 | 19 | ||||
| Calgary | Sellers’ | 34,392 | 43,860 | 0.778 | 0.464–0.728 | 486,309 |
| 2.8 | –2.6 | –0.4 | ||||
| 26.6 | 4.3 | 3.3 | ||||
| Edmonton | Balanced | 24,540 | 41,484 | 0.592 | 0.452–0.710 | 382,941 |
| –1.1 | 0.9 | –1.3 | ||||
| 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | ||||
| Regina | Balanced | 3,768 | 6,852 | 0.527 | 0.490–0.751 | 326,728 |
| –0.6 | 1.4 | –1.4 | ||||
| –20.7 | –2.7 | 4.5 | ||||
| Saskatoon | Balanced | 6,468 | 10,368 | 0.635 | 0.425–0.679 | 331,271 |
| –6.7 | –9.0 | –3.2 | ||||
| –11.2 | –16.1 | –2.2 | ||||
| Winnipeg | Balanced | 15,240 | 19,140 | 0.776 | 0.449–0.791 | 342,997 |
| 1 | –3.6 | –1.5 | ||||
| –10.8 | –12.2 | 3.9 | ||||
| Thunder Bay | Sellers’ | 2,220 | 2,844 | 0.769 | 0.498–0.760 | 291,877 |
| –3.1 | –3.3 | –5.6 | ||||
| –9.8 | 0.4 | 11.9 | ||||
| Sudbury | Sellers’ | 2,808 | 3,192 | 0.85 | 0.343–0.678 | 393,344 |
| 6.4 | –3.3 | 3.5 | ||||
| –7.1 | –17.6 | 18.9 | ||||
| Toronto | Sellers’ | 104,532 | 136,440 | 0.751 | 0.466–0.690 | 1,123,277 |
| 0.7 | –5.7 | 1.8 | ||||
| –13.9 | –27.7 | 18.4 | ||||
| Oshawa | Sellers’ | 11,268 | 13,428 | 0.832 | 0.479–0.754 | 973,439 |
| 0.3 | –5.8 | 6.1 | ||||
| –28.8 | –23.8 | 32.3 | ||||
| Hamilton | Sellers’ | 13,812 | 16,344 | 0.803 | 0.436–0.801 | 878,427 |
| 3.7 | –4.9 | 3.7 | ||||
| –27.8 | –20.1 | 22 | ||||
| St. Catharines | Sellers’ | 4,020 | 5,040 | 0.788 | 0.397–0.719 | 730,039 |
| 19.2 | 16 | 3.3 | ||||
| –10.7 | –8.3 | 26.8 | ||||
| Kitchener | Balanced | 8,244 | 10,872 | 0.756 | 0.484–0.768 | 790,438 |
| –2.1 | –6.1 | 2.1 | ||||
| –31.6 | –14.9 | 23.3 | ||||
| Guelph | Sellers’ | 3,288 | 3,468 | 0.921 | 0.508–0.838 | 826,510 |
| 4.2 | –8.3 | 1.6 | ||||
| –25.9 | –22.5 | 20.8 | ||||
| London | Sellers’ | 10,728 | 12,912 | 0.816 | 0.418–0.715 | 643,832 |
| –0.3 | –5.0 | 2.9 | ||||
| –6.9 | 2.6 | 23.8 | ||||
| Windsor | Balanced | 7,788 | 11,172 | 0.682 | 0.438–0.688 | 546,824 |
| 8.2 | 7.9 | 0 | ||||
| –16.6 | 6.3 | 28 | ||||
| Kingston | Sellers’ | 3,684 | 5,592 | 0.674 | 0.361–0.665 | 594,990 |
| 6.6 | 16.2 | 2.6 | ||||
| –26.0 | –11.6 | 20.5 | ||||
| Ottawa | Balanced | 18,048 | 24,744 | 0.702 | 0.413–0.714 | 648,799 |
| 2.9 | –0.9 | 4.1 | ||||
| –30.8 | –16.0 | 14.2 | ||||
| Gatineau | Sellers’ | 5,732 | 6,341 | 0.918 | 0.443–0.749 | 416,223 |
| 11.1 | –0.5 | 2.6 | ||||
| –20.1 | –23.6 | 26.5 | ||||
| Montréal | Sellers’ | 48,648 | 61,506 | 0.789 | 0.479–0.722 | 532,397 |
| 2.5 | 2.5 | –0.3 | ||||
| –29.8 | –23.9 | 14.3 | ||||
| Québec City | Sellers’ | 9,868 | 10,948 | 0.887 | 0.499–0.772 | 332,452 |
| 6.6 | 4.8 | 0.9 | ||||
| –28.0 | –18.2 | 8 | ||||
| Sherbrooke | Sellers’ | 2,273 | 2,325 | 0.914 | 0.447–0.765 | 347,373 |
| –1.3 | 21.5 | –8.6 | ||||
| –36.7 | –26.2 | 18.9 | ||||
| Trois-Rivières | Sellers’ | 1,488 | 1,592 | 0.927 | 0.475–0.806 | 256,021 |
| 4.1 | –11.9 | 5.6 | ||||
| 2.3 | 8.7 | 23.1 | ||||
| Saguenay | Sellers’ | 1,538 | 1,672 | 0.9 | 0.429–0.742 | 218,973 |
| 45.4 | 0 | 3.6 | ||||
| –22.3 | –15.8 | 4.9 | ||||
| Saint John | Sellers’ | 2,820 | 3,444 | 0.86 | 0.356–0.643 | 273,313 |
| 1.7 | –3.4 | 12.6 | ||||
| –1.7 | 0.3 | 33.1 | ||||
| Moncton | Sellers’ | 4,500 | 4,776 | 0.943 | 0.382–0.670 | 289,744 |
| 5.9 | –6.1 | 3.5 | ||||
| –2.1 | –2.0 | 27.3 | ||||
| Halifax | Balanced | 6,432 | 8,064 | 0.808 | 0.437–0.837 | 476,434 |
| –7.9 | –7.3 | 5.2 | ||||
| –29.3 | –21.0 | 23 | ||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | Sellers’ | 7,104 | 9,468 | 0.758 | 0.344–0.583 | 274,379 |
| (province) | 18.2 | –16.2 | 0.6 | |||
| 27.9 | –13.6 | 7.5 |
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.