Metropolitan Resale Snapshot
Markets Cooling After Hot Summer
September 27, 2021
Key Findings
- Canada’s existing housing markets continued to moderate last month, with national sales falling below their August 2020 levels. Potential homebuyers seem to be approaching purchase decisions more cautiously, although a relatively low supply of listings also limited sales. The dip in sales nonetheless left national August volumes at their second-highest level on record for that month.
- Sales fell in 20 of our 30 areas in August, with losses above 5 per cent in 11 places. This follows similar declines in 23 markets during July. Sales were below year-earlier levels in 26 markets—the largest number of areas to report such a decline since the pandemic’s height. Listings drops were less widespread. They declined in 13 of our 30 markets during August, and were down at least 5 per cent in only six areas. Still, listings were below year-earlier levels in 25 markets.
- Markets are still evening out, as shown by an easing sales-to-listings ratio in 18 jurisdictions. While many markets remain tight, there is evidence of loosening. Last month, 17 of our 30 areas were in sellers’ territory, down from 19 in July. And, although prices were up at least 20 per cent year-over-year in nine areas, this was down from 12 markets in July.
- August sales fell in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal, but rose in Calgary. This was the fifth straight sales drop in Vancouver and Toronto and the fourth in a row for Montréal. Calgary’s increase was the first since April. Sales in all four markets are well off highs from earlier this year.
- Listings fell less than 3 per cent in Calgary, Toronto, and Montréal during August, but rose 13 per cent in Vancouver. Listings were below year-earlier levels in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montréal, but higher in Calgary. Toronto, Montréal, and Calgary are now in sellers’ states, while Vancouver is balanced.
- Toronto’s average price rose in August, but average prices were little changed in Vancouver and Montréal. Calgary’s was lower. Year-over-year price growth is easing in all four cities and hovers in double-digits only in Toronto and Montréal. Calgary’s price rose only 3.6 per cent year-over-year in August.
Recent Market Performance
| Sales Falling |
Sales Rising |
|
|---|---|---|
| Price Rising |
|
|
| Price Falling |
|
|
Note: Sales and prices are the average month-to-month change during latest three months.
Forecast of Near-Term Price Growth
(year-over-year)
7% +
Victoria, Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines, Kitchener, Guelph, London, Windsor, Kingston, Ottawa, Gatineau, Montréal, Québec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Saint John, Moncton, Halifax
5–6.9%
Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Newfoundland and Labrador
3–4.9%
Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Newfoundland and Labrador
0–2.9%
—
Falling
—
While many markets remain tight, there is evidence of loosening.
Resale Indicators for August 2021
| Market1 | Market classification | Sales (#)2 | Listings (#) | Level | Sales–to–new–listings ratio Balanced market range3 |
Price ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | Sellers’ | 8,916 | 10,956 | 0.81 | 0.485–0.770 | 879,862 |
| m/m % | 3.8 | 4.1 | –0.2 | |||
| y/y % | –15.4 | –27.3 | 11.5 | |||
| Vancouver | Balanced | 39,060 | 60,204 | 0.678 | 0.437–0.718 | 1,180,000 |
| –0.5 | 12.7 | 0.6 | ||||
| 0.1 | –25.8 | 8.7 | ||||
| Fraser Valley4 | Sellers’ | 24,240 | 27,624 | 0.881 | 0.441–0.716 | 996,773 |
| 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | ||||
| –0.7 | –30.1 | 19.8 | ||||
| Calgary | Sellers’ | 33,384 | 45,444 | 0.739 | 0.464–0.727 | 490,216 |
| 1.2 | –3 | –1.1 | ||||
| 34.7 | 6 | 3.6 | ||||
| Edmonton | Balanced | 24,852 | 40,968 | 0.597 | 0.451–0.710 | 389,690 |
| 3.6 | –2.1 | –0.3 | ||||
| 7.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | ||||
| Regina | Balanced | 3,828 | 6,732 | 0.569 | 0.490–0.752 | 330,525 |
| –11.9 | –1.6 | 3 | ||||
| –16.3 | –2.4 | 7.1 | ||||
| Saskatoon | Balanced | 6,984 | 11,568 | 0.612 | 0.425–0.678 | 344,778 |
| 8.6 | 3.3 | 0 | ||||
| –3.5 | –7.5 | 1.4 | ||||
| Winnipeg | Balanced | 15,192 | 20,280 | 0.705 | 0.448–0.791 | 348,354 |
| –7 | –6.5 | 6.8 | ||||
| –15.5 | –8.7 | 7.5 | ||||
| Thunder Bay | Balanced | 2,304 | 2,940 | 0.74 | 0.498–0.760 | 309,300 |
| 11 | 7 | 7.8 | ||||
| –1 | 25 | 20.8 | ||||
| Sudbury | Sellers’ | 2,616 | 3,336 | 0.776 | 0.343–0.676 | 377,782 |
| –1.8 | 6.9 | 5.6 | ||||
| –16.5 | –7.9 | 19.3 | ||||
| Toronto | Sellers’ | 102,948 | 147,060 | 0.729 | 0.466–0.689 | 1,100,820 |
| –2.7 | –1.8 | 2.4 | ||||
| –19 | –38.5 | 12.4 | ||||
| Oshawa | Sellers’ | 11,244 | 14,640 | 0.808 | 0.479–0.753 | 912,867 |
| –3.6 | 8.3 | 0.5 | ||||
| –28.8 | –35.3 | 25.2 | ||||
| Hamilton | Balanced | 13,344 | 17,532 | 0.774 | 0.435–0.800 | 844,114 |
| 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 | ||||
| –24.7 | –26.7 | 18.8 | ||||
| St. Catharines | Sellers’ | 3,408 | 4,380 | 0.785 | 0.396–0.718 | 706,998 |
| –7.5 | –10.5 | –0.6 | ||||
| –20.4 | –26 | 18.3 | ||||
| Kitchener | Sellers’ | 8,508 | 11,868 | 0.768 | 0.484–0.768 | 777,936 |
| –10.3 | 8.2 | 0.4 | ||||
| –26.8 | –24.5 | 22.7 | ||||
| Guelph | Balanced | 3,168 | 4,020 | 0.788 | 0.508–0.837 | 814,108 |
| –4.3 | –8.5 | 1.6 | ||||
| –18.3 | –30.9 | 19.6 | ||||
| London | Sellers’ | 10,836 | 13,788 | 0.779 | 0.418–0.714 | 625,698 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 0.1 | ||||
| –6.1 | 1.4 | 23.4 | ||||
| Windsor | Balanced | 7,200 | 10,428 | 0.681 | 0.438–0.688 | 546,731 |
| –1.6 | –10.5 | 3.5 | ||||
| –16.6 | –2.8 | 32.8 | ||||
| Kingston | Sellers’ | 3,468 | 4,848 | 0.719 | 0.361–0.665 | 576,792 |
| –8.8 | –4.7 | 1 | ||||
| –32.8 | –24.2 | 19.7 | ||||
| Ottawa | Balanced | 17,604 | 25,224 | 0.668 | 0.413–0.714 | 625,518 |
| –4.4 | –10.4 | –0.5 | ||||
| –22.5 | –12.5 | 11.1 | ||||
| Gatineau | Sellers’ | 5,065 | 6,363 | 0.821 | 0.443–0.747 | 404,072 |
| –3.9 | 10.1 | 1.2 | ||||
| –23.7 | –13.3 | 24.3 | ||||
| Montréal | Sellers’ | 47,586 | 60,059 | 0.791 | 0.478–0.721 | 533,625 |
| –9.4 | –1.6 | –0.2 | ||||
| –31.1 | –28.5 | 14.1 | ||||
| Québec City | Sellers’ | 9,104 | 10,351 | 0.864 | 0.499–0.771 | 328,723 |
| 22.7 | 20.8 | 2.5 | ||||
| –29.3 | –23.7 | 12.1 | ||||
| Sherbrooke | Sellers’ | 2,296 | 1,918 | 1.179 | 0.446–0.763 | 382,783 |
| –7.4 | –25.4 | 4.5 | ||||
| –20.3 | –36.5 | 30.8 | ||||
| Trois-Rivières | Sellers’ | 1,432 | 1,808 | 0.823 | 0.475–0.804 | 239,246 |
| –6.2 | 16.3 | 10.1 | ||||
| –27.1 | 29.2 | 34.1 | ||||
| Saguenay | Balanced | 1,054 | 1,668 | 0.646 | 0.428–0.740 | 211,385 |
| –5.5 | 46.2 | –1.8 | ||||
| –42.5 | –17.2 | 3.9 | ||||
| Saint John | Sellers’ | 2,772 | 3,588 | 0.844 | 0.355–0.641 | 242,338 |
| –7.2 | 4.2 | –1.6 | ||||
| –5.3 | –8 | 18.7 | ||||
| Moncton | Sellers’ | 4,248 | 5,076 | 0.859 | 0.382–0.667 | 278,116 |
| 9.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | ||||
| –10.4 | –8.4 | 25.1 | ||||
| Halifax | Balanced | 6,744 | 8,748 | 0.826 | 0.436–0.836 | 452,777 |
| –0.7 | –3.1 | 0 | ||||
| –24 | –23.5 | 19.1 | ||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | Balanced | 6,072 | 11,136 | 0.564 | 0.344–0.581 | 272,673 |
| (province) | –11.2 | 6.8 | –1.2 | |||
| 14.5 | –2 | 7.9 |
1 For real estate board area (except Newfoundland, which is province-wide).
2 Italics indicate percentage change. The second row shows the percentage change from the previous month, the third row from the year earlier.
3 Within one standard deviation of long-term average sales-to-new-listings ratio.
4 Includes Abbotsford.
Note: All data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Signal49 Research; Canadian Real Estate Association; Quebec Federation of Real Estate Boards.
The monthly Metro Resale Snapshot provides an overview of the existing home market for 30 areas and expectations for existing home price growth over the short term.
Any errors or omissions in fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Signal49 Research.
Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.