Unlocking Skilled Immigrant Talent

A mismatch between career plans and outcomes

For immigrants who come to Canada to work in the skilled trades, getting certified can be a long and complicated process. Statistics Canada found that only 19 per cent of immigrant journeypersons certify in their intended trades.¹ The remaining 81 per cent certify in a different trade, or don’t certify at all.

What we don’t know about trades mismatches

Skilled trades immigrants, in general, face certification gaps.² But less is known about which trades are most affected and why. Signal49 Research is partnering with the Future Skills Centre to do the following:

Why this matters for Canada’s labour market

Canada is facing acute labour shortages across the skilled trades.³ Construction is among the hardest hit: Since 2016, the sector’s ability to fill vacant positions has deteriorated faster than that of other sectors.⁴

Even accounting for the expected recruitment of new workers, BuildForce Canada projects the industry may face a shortage of 108,300 workers by 2034.⁵ These projections predate the federal government’s recent commitment to infrastructure development in its Canada Strong: Budget 2025,⁶ meaning the gap could be even larger.

This carries real consequences for Canada’s economy.

Labour shortages in construction alone cost the economy $2.4 billion in 2022 and 2023, contributing to project delays, higher construction costs, and rising housing prices.⁷ But the challenge extends well beyond construction.

The 2025 Build Canada Strong strategy positions infrastructure, housing, and defence as central to economic growth, demanding more tradespeople like welders, crane operators, and electricians.⁸ To meet this demand, the government will spend $6 billion to recruit, train, and hire up to 100,000 new Red Seal trades workers in the next five years.⁹

Immigration will play a role in filling these labour market needs. Canada continues to prioritize tradespeople through category‑based selection,¹⁰ which allows the federal government to recruit immigrants with experience in occupations that meet its economic goals.

Yet at the same time, the federal government has initiated consultations to combine the Federal Skilled Trades Program (an immigration program designed specifically for skilled tradespeople) with the Federal Skilled Worker and Canadian Experience classes, creating a single high‑skilled immigration class.¹¹

This has created uncertainty around Canada’s ability to attract skilled trades professionals. And high rates of certification misalignment among those already here only deepen the risk of not having the workforce needed to deliver on infrastructure promises.

Insights from this research will help Canada make better use of the tradespeople recruited to meet its infrastructure goals.

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