1-866-711-2262

Search

Real GDP Increased in April

Canadian Economics

By: Kiefer Van Mulligen

    

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5 per cent in April, following a 0.1 per cent decline in March. April’s real GDP growth was higher than Statistics Canada’s advance estimate of 0.4 per cent for the month.

  • Real GDP in goods-producing industries grew by 1.2 per cent, following a 0.7 per cent decline in March. Meanwhile, services-producing industries grew by 0.3 per cent in April—growing for the third consecutive month.
  • The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry contributed most to April’s real GDP growth. The industry expanded by 3.7 per cent in April, as higher synthetic crude oil production offset lower crude bitumen extraction.
  • The manufacturing industry was a net positive contributor to growth in April, with its real GDP increasing by 0.6 per cent. Declining output in the chemical manufacturing industry was more than offset by broad strength in other manufacturing subsectors, especially petroleum and coal products (+5.8 per cent) and machinery (+3.0 per cent).
  • While most industries saw real GDP gains in April, there were some areas of weakness. Real GDP in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry declined by 1.5 per cent, while professional, scientific, and technical services output fell by 0.2 per cent—the industry’s fifth consecutive monthly decline.
  • Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for real GDP growth in May anticipates a 0.1 per cent increase (m/m). Combined with the strong performance in April, Canada’s economy is on track to expand in the second quarter of 2026.

Key insights

Canada’s economy is entering the second quarter on a somewhat firmer footing after declines in March and over the first quarter of 2026. Real GDP rose by 0.5 per cent in April, supported by gains in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, the manufacturing, and the transportation and warehousing industries. Despite this improvement, the economy has faced significant headwinds over the past year. Ongoing U.S. protectionism, slower population growth, and an energy shock have weighed on activity, contributing to signs of broader economic weakness. The unemployment rate rose at the start of the year, our Index of Consumer Confidence points to a fragile consumer environment, and business investment continues to decline. As a result, it is not surprising that headline GDP growth has struggled over the past several quarters.

Looking ahead, there are several encouraging developments that suggest a more resilient outlook. Weakness in government spending, which undercut growth in the first quarter of this year, is unlikely to persist. Consumer spending has remained relatively robust, even through the most recent quarter. Importantly, GDP per capita has returned to growth, an inverse effect of declining population, signalling improving underlying economic momentum. External demand is also providing support, with oil and gas exports increasing rapidly this quarter as the supply shock gives the energy sector a boost. In addition, ongoing CUSMA negotiations are expected to lead to reduced tariffs and stronger trade flows, setting the stage for improved economic activity into next year.

To learn more about our medium- and long-term economic outlooks, please visit Signal49 Research’s Canadian Outlook.

Related Insights

See More Insights