Index of Consumer Confidence Stood Still In February ​

Ottawa, March 1, 2021 — Signal49 Research’s February Index of Consumer Confidence inched up 0.4 points to 91.1 but remains 25 per cent below its pre-pandemic level.

Canadians were significantly more confident about the future in February due to the distribution of vaccines against COVID-19 and the easing of restrictions in some regions of the country. Close to 20 per cent of survey respondents said they believe there will be more jobs on the market six months from now—the highest share of positive responses since 2002.

However, despite growing optimism about the future, consumers felt uneasy about the present. Negative views on current finances increased in February for the first time since last August, and consumer sentiment regarding major purchases deteriorated in all regions of Canada after three consecutive monthly increases. Only 19.7 per cent of survey respondents in February said that now is a good time to make a major purchase.

“Consumer confidence remains precarious throughout the country,” said Anna Feng, economist with Signal49 Research’s Economic Forecasting group. “The distribution of vaccines has given people reason for hope, but we’re not yet out of the woods with the pandemic. The current sentiment of Canadians reflects this reality.”

Consumer Confidence across Canada in February included the following results:

Atlantic Canada: The index in the Atlantic region plunged 21.8 points in February, following its 2.7-point drop last month. At just 61.3 per cent of its pre-pandemic level, consumer confidence in the Atlantic region continues to rank at the bottom of the recovery chart compared with other regions.  Atlantic consumers felt particularly apprehensive, with only 14.4 per cent feeling good about making a major purchase now.

Quebec: The index in Quebec increased by 6.0 points this month after its 9.1-point increase in January. With the recent announcement that movie theatres and indoor sport facilities will be allowed to reopen during March Break, Quebecers’ confidence about the future significantly improved. Optimism about future employment topped the chart, with close to 25 per cent of positive responses.

Ontario: The index rose 7.2 points to 86.9 in February, the largest monthly gain among provinces. As restrictions relax in some parts of the province, Ontarians are increasingly optimistic about their future job prospects. After Quebec, Ontario logged the largest increase in confidence on the question of future employment.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba: Consumer Confidence in the region declined by 6.7 points this month, reaching 72 per cent of its level from a year ago. Similar to Alberta, pessimism about future employment increased. The share of respondents who believe their financial condition will remain the same in the coming six months also rose. Given elevated uncertainty about COVID-19 and deteriorating sentiments about the future, consumers in the region are increasingly cautious about making big purchases.

Alberta: The Alberta index dropped 6.3 points to 58.3, falling below its pre-pandemic level again. The cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline expansion project is weighing heavily on Albertans’ confidence about the future. Alberta is one of only two regions that recorded rising pessimism about future employment in February.

British Columbia: The index in British Columbia fell 6.5 points this month, on the heels of two consecutive months of increases. This mainly stems from deteriorating consumer sentiment on finances (both current and future). More than 30 per cent of respondents believe their current finances are worse compared with six months ago, the highest share of negative views in Canada.

The full forecast is available for subscribers here.