This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on energy. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.
Document Highlights
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price is expected to remain elevated through next year, although COVID-19 outbreaks will continue to cause temporary downward pressure on oil prices.
The price discount between Canadian heavy oil and WTI will remain favourable thanks to the completion of pipeline projects that will significantly increase export capacity over the next year.
The industry’s GDP is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year.
Demand for Canadian crude oil will remain solid, as U.S. oil consumption continues to recover from its lockdown-induced lows.
Despite improvements, capital spending in the oil and gas industry will struggle to reach 2019 levels as producers continue to prioritize their balance sheets.
Canada’s oil and gas industry will continue to face growing pressure to drastically cut emissions from its operations.
Employment in the oil and gas industry has rebounded but still faces hiring headwinds.
Demand for Canadian natural gas will remain strong due to the fact that it’s a relatively cheap and low-carbon energy source and is still a big part of the U.S.’s overall energy mix.
Renewable energy projects will continue to grow as Canada works to meet its target of net-zero emissions by 2050.
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