Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Special Update Autumn 2001

This quarterly executive summary provides highlights of the Canadian Outlook that presents the short-term national outlook.

Document Highlights 

Current turbulent economic conditions have led to considerable downward revisions to the near-term U.S. forecast. The updated outlook incorporates a mild U.S. recession. Although Canadian growth will be very weak in 2002, we will narrowly miss following the United States into recession.

• After reaching 4.4 per cent last year, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to tumble to 1.5 per cent in 2001 and 1.2 per cent in 2002.
• The U.S. economy is expected to see a mild recession in the latter half of 2001.
• Real exports will drop by 2.7 per cent this year and by a further 1.4 per cent in 2002.
• Significant monetary and fiscal stimulus will partly offset near-term weakness.
• Growth will accelerate sharply in the latter half of 2002.