This quarterly economic forecast examines the short-term economic outlook for Canada – all major components including consumer expenditures, housing, government, non-energy business investment, and trade. The outlook for the financial, labour, and energy markets is also given along with costs and prices. The U.S. economic outlook is presented in a separate section.
Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2008
Canadian Outlook Economic Forecast: Summer 2008
Canadian Economic Analysis
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- Data for the first quarter of 2008 was paradoxical in that growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the U.S. outperformed that in Canada. However, in terms of income, employment, and domestic demand growth, Canada remains in much better shape.
- A decline in exports, especially in the auto sector, will result in real GDP growth for Canada of only 1.7 per cent this year, a full percentage point below the 2007 performance. Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.7 per cent in 2009, helped by a better trade performance and still strong domestic demand.
- The general rise in commodity prices may be here to stay. Seemingly insatiable global demand for raw materials, coupled with a recovery in forestry product prices, should keep prices elevated and shore up resource revenues and private investment.
- Luckily for manufacturers, the loonie seems to have stopped riding the coattails of energy prices. The Canadian dollar is expected to remain relatively stable over 2008 and 2009, just shy of parity.
- Surprise, surprise . . . despite the dire projections in the latest round of federal and provincial budgets, government revenues are, once again, growing more strongly than expected. However, at the regional level, results will be lopsided in favour of resourceand energy-rich provinces.
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