This annual economic forecast presents the long-term national outlook. The U.S. economic outlook is presented in a separate section.
Canadian Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2018
Canadian Outlook Long-Term Economic Forecast: 2018
Canadian Economic Analysis
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- Following a year of stunning gains, Canadian economic growth is projected to sink back below 2 per cent in 2018. Growth is unlikely to exceed 2 per cent again within the foreseeable future.
- After falling almost 20 per cent over the last two years, business investment eked out a small increase in 2017. Further increases will likely be moderate. As such, total business investment is unlikely to return to its 2014 highs until the middle of the next decade.
- Household consumption has been driving the economy’s recent strong performance, but consumers’ ability to spend will lessen over the next several years due to high consumer debt levels, a cooling housing market, and slowing employment growth.
- Given the recent weakness in business investment and the above-potential growth over the last year, the economy is butting up against capacity constraints. We expect the economy to be operating at close to full potential next year. After that, economic growth will be constrained by weak potential output growth.
- The withdrawal of the baby boomers from the workforce over the forecast will increase the retirement rate, put downward pressure on the participation rate, and result in slower potential output growth.
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