This quarterly economic forecast presents the medium-term outlook for the Canadian economy. This release focuses on housing. For an overview of all major components of the economy, go to the Canadian Outlook main page.
Housing Markets Shake Off COVID … for Now: Canada’s Two-Year Housing Outlook
Housing Markets Shake Off COVID … for Now: Canada’s Two-Year Housing Outlook
Canadian Economic Analysis
Industry Economic Analysis
Urban City Economic Analysis
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- Although pent-up demand and low interest rates have lifted residential markets from the springtime weakness they suffered due to COVID-19 lockdowns, they continue to face downside risks, including soft employment, the tapering of supportive government and corporate measures, continued weakness in oil prices, and the possibility that the second COVID wave could lead to a return to lockdowns.
- We expect housing starts to rise 3.6 per cent to 216,100 units in 2020 and 220,700 units in 2021. Our medium-term outlook is for only a slight easing in starts, as household formation remains solid.
- Resale markets in most areas have bounced back from their springtime softness. Canada’s average resale price will rise 10.7 per cent this year and 5.9 per cent in 2021. We expect annual average price growth of roughly 2 per cent for 2022–25.
- The resale market’s bounce-back has obscured the pre-pandemic patterns of regional residential strength—stronger in much of Eastern Canada and B.C.’s lower mainland, weaker in Alberta and Saskatchewan. We expect an eventual return to those patterns.
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