Newfoundland and Labrador Fiscal Snapshot: Fiscal Future Hinges On Oil Prices

This edition of the Fiscal Snapshot series focuses on Newfoundland and Labrador. It examines the province’s fiscal situation after a dramatic drop-off in world oil prices left the province in recession and with a gaping hole in the government’s finances. As a result, the province expects to run large deficits until 2019–20. The report also examines the new tax and spending initiatives that were put forth in Budget 2015, and how they impact the province’s fiscal outlook when combined with Signal49 Research’s economic projections for the province. Using our model for the economy, as well as our own oil production and price forecasts, we expect the province to balance one year ahead of schedule, in 2018–19—presuming, however, that the tight spending plan is achieved and that oil prices come back as expected. This report makes it clear that the province’s fiscal future hinges on oil prices.