This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2008
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2008
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- The global financial turmoil will undermine Canada’s economic performance and affect all provinces. Real GDP growth in Canada will be limited to 1.5 per cent next year.
- Ontario will suffer. The province will teeter on the brink of recession in the latter part of 2008 and early in 2009. The export sector will contract again and the domestic economy will decelerate sharply.
- Positive prospects in the aerospace industry will help the Quebec economy next year.
- Saskatchewan is in a league of its own; booming conditions are anticipated to persist well into 2009. Manitoba has been largely unaffected by the economic turbulence, and the province is in good shape; a strong domestic economy and large construction projects will allow for sound economic growth in the near term.
- Alberta and British Columbia have lost speed in 2008. A gradual improvement in economic growth is expected next year.
- The Atlantic provinces have been hit hard by the downturn in the United States. Prince Edward Island will experience modest GDP growth next year while New Brunswick and Nova Scotia will advance by just 0.8 per cent and 1 per cent respectively.
- Real GDP in Newfoundland and Labrador will fall next year. Oil production is expected to plunge, but the domestic economy should remain healthy.
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