This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada’s provinces.
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2009
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2009
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- Canada’s economy is expected to rebound by 2.9 per cent next year. Rising consumer confidence and low financing rates should help loosen purse strings, while generous government spending will also add to growth.
- Newfoundland and Labrador won’t see growth before 2011. Declining offshore oil production and weaker construction activity over the next year will prevent a recovery.
- The Maritime provinces, along with Manitoba, will post positive real GDP growth in 2009. All four provinces have managed to avoid the boom–bust cycle.
- Quebec did not avoid the global recession. But better days are expected in 2010 as business investment picks up.
- Public infrastructure stimulus will play a large role in the Ontario rebound. Economic growth will also be helped by modest improvement in labour markets and strengthening consumer and business confidence.
- Extremely weak global demand for fertilizers hampered overall real GDP growth in Saskatchewan this year. Prospects for the battered potash industry should improve in 2010.
- Renewed interest in expanding the oil sands industry will shore up Alberta’s economy in the near term, while a long-awaited revival of the forestry industry will support better times in British Columbia.
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