This quarterly economic forecast for the province of Ontario examines the economic outlook for the province, including gross domestic product (GDP), output by industry and labour market conditions.
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Ontario—Autumn 2017
Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Ontario—Autumn 2017
Provincial Economic Analysis
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- Ontario’s economy continues to rely on its strong housing market, as economic growth in the province reached 3.0 per cent in 2017. But, with a housing market retraction coming, Ontario’s economy will moderate to 2.0 per cent annual growth in 2018.
- With the first of two minimum-wage hikes set for 2018, Ontarians will see wage gains of 3.7 per cent in 2018. Job growth will slow from 1.6 per cent in 2017 to 0.9 per cent in 2018.
- Ontario will continue to struggle with a weak business investment climate, thanks in part to high electricity prices and to government policy, such as the carbon tax and rising minimum-wage requirements, that increase input costs for business.
- Investments in large-scale regional transit projects will boost government capital spending to 8.1 per cent in 2018.
- A weak business investment climate, the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA renegotiations, and a slowdown in the auto sector will put downward pressure on export strength.
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